St. Louis Cardinals: What is the right price for Bryce?

6 of 7

Bryce Harper is arguably the most coveted free agent ever, and the St. Louis Cardinals will be a major player for his services. With Scott Boras trying to break the bank for Harper, the question that still has to be asked by the Cardinals is this: What price is right for Bryce Harper?

The big talk of the ballpark is finally coming full circle, as the coveted free agency that everyone and their mother has been waiting for is finally here. A former number 1 draft pick brought into the league at the ripe age of 19 by the with the purpose of being the franchise’s cornerstone, Bryce Harper would be one of the biggest free agent signings the St. Louis Cardinals have ever made.

Harper hasn’t quite put the full package together, but has shown how dangerous he can be when he does. At 26 years of age and a 9+ WAR season under his belt, there is substance there for people to believe that Harper’s newest contract will in fact break barriers that would make others before it pale in comparison. On top of possessing MVP-level talent, Harper provides marketability that only few in the league today can come close to matching.

This all makes putting a number on his value somewhat difficult. His abilities and young age mixed with all of the hype brought into his coming free agency for the last several seasons almost certainly means that whichever team scoops him up in free agency will be paying him one of the most lucrative contracts in league history.

But will it be the most lucrative? How will it compare to the huge contracts of the past? A few of our writers give their thoughts on what they would want to sign Bryce Harper at, and how high they would be happy with the St. Louis Cardinals paying for Harper to be a Cardinal.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 05: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals hits a double in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park on September 5, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

Bryce Harper is certainly a great player, but is he so transcendent that he deserves a contract that will be seen as a milestone for years to come? Christian May-Suzuki argues that standard might be set in the next few years, but Harper might just be a stepping stone.

Ideal Contract: 10 years, $350M with year 4 and 8 opt-outs

Most I would pay: 12 years, $432M with year 6 and 9 opt-outs

For me, the question has to be asked whether or not Bryce Harper is good enough to set this groundbreaking trend that many people, including himself and Scott Boras, believe that he will start.

Don’t count me as one of those people, though. While Bryce Harper is a dynamic player with incredible marketability, there’s one player who is certainly more valuable than Harper, and his name is Mike Trout.

Trout signed his 6 year, $144.5M contract in 2014 at just 23, but the manner in which the contract is structured, there is a significant yearly value jump that started this season, which just so happened to also be his age 26 season.

Ideally, a team would not want to pay Harper more than Mike Trout. While Harper is a great prospect, his obscene -3.2 dWAR this season paired with some inconsistent seasons will certainly make teams cautious to pay him more than a guy who has had 9+ WAR in 5 seasons, over .935 OPS over the past 7 seasons, the defensive ability to record 19 DRS in the outfield, and the speed to steal 30+ bases per season.

Now there is an argument that predicted inflation and the estimated value of the new Trout contract that will come to be the true barrier breaker in 2021 should impact Harper’s predicted future value, and that Harper’s contract should be far higher than Trout’s previous one to compensate for this large, predicted jump and general inflation over such a long period of time.

Additionally, Harper’s marketability in comparison to Trout’s disinterest in it would also bump Harper’s number up, but there’s no real way to put a particular number on that, especially given some of Harper’s inconsistency.

But will teams be willing to pay a guy for double digit seasons at a per year rate that is $10M higher than the next highest guy? For a guy who isn’t even the best player in the league? For a guy with a single legitimate MVP caliber campaign? It seems unlikely.

On top of that, the fact that Trout’s contract was spiked so high to account for inflation at the same age as Bryce Harper is asking for his contract gives teams a decent frame of reference, and one I am sure they will be reluctant to move too far from.

The ideal contract number I put across takes all of that into consideration. At $35M AAV, the ideal contract would put him just ahead of Trout’s current contract and provides a decent balance in value for both teams.

On Harper’s side, Boras will certainly try to get more than this for his client, but the early opt-outs will allow him to regauge his own value if need be, while giving him the distinction of being the highest paid player.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, ten years at that price would be manageable for the team for years to come, and the additional opt-outs could in fact help the Cardinals in some circumstances.

If Harper truly wants to be the MLB’s first $400M man, and won’t settle for anything less, twelve years at $37M AAV is the highest I am willing to pay at this point in time for Harper. Getting more than $5M more than Trout, even at this pre-monumental deal, is simply too much for me to think that it’s worth it.

They always say that one player cannot be placed above the team, and this is true in most cases. The fear of inconsistency is just too much to totally break the bank for. I understand that there is no salary cap rule, but there is a cap that we don’t really have a number for: the amount that Bill DeWitt is willing to spend.

At the end of the day, the windows of guys like Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and even Carlos Martinez are still wide open, so DeWitt draining all the finances that he’s willing to on one man seems a bit too much, even for me.

For a guy with the money making potential Harper has, it should be more than worth it to pay the big bucks. However, the contract that will truly blow everyone else’s out of the water will be Trout’s, and teams will nibble around the current highest AAV until then.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 04: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals lays on the ground after hitting an two-run RBI ground rule double in the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park on September 4, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

While he believes that the St. Louis Cardinals should go as in as they need to for Harper’s signature, Trevor Hooth has a gut feeling that the Cardinals won’t be emerging the winners of the Harper sweepstakes. And he’s OK with that.

Ideal Contract: 10 years $350M with various opt outs

Most I would pay: Pay what it takes.

Look, Bryce Harper can change the face of the St. Louis Cardinals and only make them better. I am not ignorant to that fact at all. I am not even worrying about overpaying. The fact remains that I have yet to be convinced that there is a chance of this happening.

Call me a pessimist if you want, but my numbers above could just as easily read 700 million dollars and I still would not be invested in the idea it is possible. Okay, for that much it is. But you get the point. It might take a crazy contract to secure his services.

My fellow writers will have great numbers and statistics to throw at you, so please read them carefully. I am going a different route. Keep in mind, that if Harper is a true possibility, I would be ecstatic by the signing. He is a true game changer in that lineup.

This is a fantastic time to sign the superstar that this team is missing. If it does not happen, we turn to the ever powerful Tyler O’Neill to provide that spark in the coming years.

That is right, I’m one of those people. I’m bought in to O’Neill mania.

His strikeout rate was scary, but he is a safe bet to not strikeout 40 percent of the time his entire career, considering he consistently posted 20 percent in the minors. O’Neill also showed flashes of his power, and his ability to tap into that power in clutch situations. No one can forget when he took his shirt off after the walkoff.

Marcell Ozuna will be hitting the free agent market after 2019. So there will be a full time spot for O’Neill soon enough, even if Harper signs with the St. Louis Cardinals. I cannot wait for a full time outfield with Harrison Bader and O’Neill.

So yes, pay what it takes. Harper is young enough with some scary good numbers to prove he could be worth it. Take the jump. I just could not write this without thinking of how to plan for the ever likely scenario that Bryce Harper will sign the dotted line elsewhere.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 24: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals slides into second base for a double in the first inning ahead of the throw to Miguel Rojas #19 of the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on September 24, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

Dan Campbell is looking at both the good and the bad with Bryce Harper, and he’s not entirely convinced Harper is worth what he thinks he is.

Ideal Contract: 8 years, $280M with opt out after year 3. Salaries of $35M, $38M, and $40M in the first three years with just over $33M a year in the remaining 5 years.

Most I would pay: 8-10 years, $310M with opt outs after years 3 and 5.

We do not know which Bryce Harper we are signing. Are we signing the 2015 MVP who posted a WAR in excess of 10? Are we signing the Harper who posted WAR figures of just over 1? The point is we have no clue. The phenom has seven major league seasons under his belt and his MVP year of 2015 looks more like the outlier than anything else.

What worries me about Harper is that his numbers are not that impressive over his career — especially when one takes into account that he was a part of a stacked Washington Nationals lineup during that time.

That said, this contract, unlike most free agent contracts, would be paying more for future performance than it would be past performance. We have had a glimpse at his ceiling — his 2015 year in which he had one of the best seasons of all time — and we know his floor, which is a barely above replacement level player who plays shoddy defense.

However, he fits the St. Louis Cardinals because he is a power hitter, he is a high on base guy, and he boasts the combination of hitting left handed and playing right field. He would immediately solve lineup construction problems and get Paul DeJong (who has no business batting third) out of the three-hole. Moreover, his star power and intensity are something this team needs (which is why this team should sign Josh Donaldson in addition to Bryce — yes they can afford both).

The guy just turned 26 years old in October. Bryce has suffered bad injuries to his hip, neck, knee (twice), thumb, and shoulder. He has only played more than 150 games twice in his career, only played 140 or more three times in seven seasons, and his injuries will only become greater and more intense as he ages.

Thus, I am very wary of the contracts that many in the media are talking about which exceed 10 years in length and $400M. Signing any player to that deal is absurd. Signing a player with Bryce’s track record to a contract like that is a dereliction of responsibility to your franchise and the team should not do it.

Any contract in excess of $350M is absolutely insane. No player should command that much of a team’s salary because there is a point of diminishing returns. The player can only produce so much value on the field in a given year, and when you can have 3 or 4 really good players instead of one (potentially) great player, then the decision becomes a no brainer to choose the 3 or 4 guys that won’t financially eviscerate your team building abilities for the next decade.

I like Bryce on an 8 year deal that pays him more money in the first three years, with an opt-out after his age 29 season. That will give him the “win” of having the highest AAV ever, and it will also allow the Cardinals to sign Donaldson, a reliever, all arbitration players, and still be under the luxury tax figure of $204M.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 26: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals takes the field against the Miami Marlins during the Nationals last home game of the year at Nationals Park on September 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Joshua McGee believes that the time is now for the St. Louis Cardinals to fill the superstar void that has been apparent on the team for years. However, he doesn’t think that the Cardinals should write a blank check for Harper’s services.

Ideal Contract: 10 years, $350M

Most I would pay: 12 years, $400M

Bryce Harper is no doubt a superstar player. What the Cardinals have been lacking is that superstar player, and guys like Bryce Harper don’t hit the market every year, so this is a major opportunity for Mozielak and co. Bryce Harper is only 26 years old, and with his resume, he is due for a huge payday. Harper is one of those guys who could jolt your team into playoff contention the second he puts the pen to the paper. He’s just that good.

More than ever, the St. Louis Cardinals need that superstar bat. Since Albert Pujols left for the Los Angeles Angels, the big bat has been a glaring hole in the Cardinals roster, and it might have cost them a World Series title or two. There’s been guys who have filled the void temporarily, but never panned out to be as expected.

With Harper, this is a generational talent we haven’t seen wear the birds on the bat since Pujols, and with three consecutive seasons without a playoff game, this seems like the perfect time to unload the cash truck for a superstar.

He’s also a client of Scott Boras, who is arguably the best agent in all of baseball. Boras can sell water to a well, and his tactics can help Bryce Harper get the biggest contract in MLB history.

10 years, $350M seems like a fair deal for both parties. Earlier this week, it was reported that Bryce Harper turned down a 10 year, $300M extension from the Washington Nationals, and it seemed obvious that he would as well. Since 2009, the Cardinals have signed only one contract above $100M, and that was awarded to slugger Matt Holliday. This would be a different approach for the front office, but with a guy like Harper, he has what it takes to be worth every cent.

With a guy like Harper, there will be other teams pursuing the superstar heavily as well. Teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, who are also that big bat away from contention, or the Chicago White Sox, who could drastically speed up their rebuild by adding Harper. Truth is, it will be an all out bidding war. The most I would shell out for Bryce Harper is a 12 year, $400 million megadeal.

Agent Scott Boras stated that he was looking for a $500 million contract for Bryce Harper. He’s insane. The only guy in sports who is arguably worth $500 million is Mike Trout. A $400 million deal is almost insane for Harper, though he has the big bat, he is a below average defender and is also coming off of a 1.4 WAR season.

So, if teams like the Phillies and White Sox decide to go over that $400 million hump, I believe the Cardinals should sit this one out, and not try to overpay and make other needs unaffordable in the future.

WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 05: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals celebrates after scoring on an three-run RBI double by Ryan Zimmerman #11 (not pictured) in seventh inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park on September 5, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

Andrew Julien knows the magnitude of Harper’s worth as seen through advanced metrics, but even he knows that giving the deal that Scott Boras wants would be too much for any team, St. Louis Cardinals included.

Ideal Contract: 10 years, $350M with year 4 and 6 opt outs

Most I would pay: 13 years, $400M (backloaded) with year 5 and 7 opt outs + limited no trade clause

The cost of Harper? An ideal contract for the St. Louis Cardinals to sign Bryce Harper? Since free isn’t an option, I’ll propose $350M at 10 years ($35M/year) with opt-outs at year 4 (age 30) and year 6 (age 32).

Bryce Harper can become the current highest paid player in baseball. The St. Louis Cardinals can have a face of the franchise. Both parties win if the team is in position to pursue another World Series victory by Harper’s age 30 (or 32) season, and he decides to opt out for a better contract. It’s a happy day, and a Cardinals fans’ dream world.

As for the most I would pay? Well… I’ll start breaking it down using a table:

A preview of an upcoming article...stay tuned! pic.twitter.com/0H9KU4nAsz
— Redbird Rants (@FSRedbirdRants) November 12, 2018

This table is predictive of Harper’s projected value based on WAR, and the math equates to $435M at 14 years (technically 13 years since no value is expected in year 14) with the money being backloaded. However, I believe there are other teams in play that drive the Cardinals to have to actually give in to agent Scott Boras demands of going 14 years to sign Bryce Harper at $435M.

It would be tough for the Cardinals to push $400M at 13 years – reasoning being that there isn’t a DH (designated hitter) in the NL – unless that changes within the next decade. For me, the max amount I’ll go with Harper is $400M at 13 years (opt outs at age 31 and 33) with a limited 10-team NTC-no trade clause, and the money being backloaded.

Wait, Andrew, why are you backloading the money in his regression years?! Well, Bryce Harper has compiled 30 fWAR through his age 26 season. Therefore, if Harper compiles the potential 40 (or even just 33) fWAR above, he will likely be a Hall of Fame inductee (usually likely for players with a minimum of 57 fWAR) following his tenure.

This adds more incentive for an organization to try to keep Harper on their team. The St. Louis Cardinals would love to have Bryce Harper represent them in the Hall of Fame.

The second caveat to this is that the luxury tax threshold should be expected to increase in amount by the time this contract would be nearing end. This mitigates the amount the team is detrimentally affected by the higher AAV toward the end of the contract, eliminating the risk of being financially crippled by backloading the deal.

Bryce Harper still seeks a World Series ring – which the St. Louis Cardinals have more history with winning than any team not name the New York Yankees. The St. Louis Cardinals continued winning ways along with the opportunity to be the face of a city may be appealing enough for Bryce to accept a contract as the first $400M man in baseball.

ST. LOUIS, MO – APRIL 08: General view of the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds line up for the national anthem before the Opening Day on April 8, 2013 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Bryce Harper is a great player that certainly deserves the biggest contract the St. Louis Cardinals have ever given, but the check for Harper certainly isn’t blank.

There is a pretty defined limit on what we are willing to offer to Bryce Harper, and a variety of factors play into it. There were two main things that kept our writer’s offers grounded: inconsistency and Mike Trout. A contract that is based more on predicting value than any contract in history, there was only so much that we would be willing to spend on Harper because it’s only based on a single year of tangible results.