St. Louis Cardinals: Breaking down the incentive-laden Wainwright deal

Unlike the Pujols abomination of a contract, this deal is a great deal for both Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals to make, and should quell any anger about Wainwright’s resigning.

Starter incentives

+ $500K for 5 starts

+ $1M for 10 starts

+ $1M for 15 starts

+ $1.5M for 20 starts

+ $2M for 25 starts

+ $2M for 30 starts

Total starter incentives: $8M

These are the largest of the incentives, but that doesn’t make them the ones that I like the least.

What does make these the ones I like the least is the fact that it doesn’t matter how poorly Wainwright performs in those starts so long as he makes it to them. There is much more leeway given to a struggling starter before they are pulled from the rotation than it is to be relegated to not being used in the bullpen.

I don’t think that Wainwright will be able to get to 30 starts this season, but the St. Louis Cardinals have allowed him to start 33 games of 4.62 ERA ball in 2016 and 23 games of 2017, so reaching the 25-start threshold isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Father Time is a rough opponent, and as the fight drags out, the body continues to break down. Even if he is a full-time starter this year, I would be hard pressed to believe that he makes it to more than 20 starts this season.

That would put the incentive at just $4M and the total contract at $6M. Based on his recent performance, some people could still see that as overpaying, but it’s not something that will particularly impact the team or it’s spending this free agency period, so there’s no tangible harm done to the team in making this deal.

I personally would have preferred that the incentives be inning-based as opposed to start-based, but the penalty isn’t anything to be upset about.

Unlike the Pujols abomination of a contract, this deal is a great deal for both Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals to make, and should quell any anger about Wainwright’s resigning.

Relief appearance incentives

+ $500K for 35 relief appearances

+ $500K for 40 relief appearances

+ $500K for 45 relief appearances

+ $500K for 50 relief appearances

+ $500K for 55 relief appearances

+ $500K for 60 relief appearances

Total relief appearance incentive: $3M 

As I mentioned, inconsistent performance is far more scrutinized in the bullpen, so Wainwright would really have to ‘earn’ these incentives. The consistency of relief appearances is far more up in the air because of the there are far more bodies that can fill the role of a reliever than a starter.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen could certainly use some consistent help, and Wainwright will get paid if he can provide it. This will also allow him to make a solid amount of money quickly as soon as he reaches a certain threshold, yet it isn’t too quick to the point where if the first incentive is triggered, it’s difficult to stop the rest of them from triggering without benching him outright.

Overall, it feels like a relatively balanced system, but there is a bit less of a reason for Wainwright to try and relieve based on the difference in money between the two incentives. John Mozeliak and the St. Louis Cardinals management tried to pad this with the final list of incentives, so while it isn’t perfect, it is still a very fair system for both sides.

Unlike the Pujols abomination of a contract, this deal is a great deal for both Wainwright and the St. Louis Cardinals to make, and should quell any anger about Wainwright’s resigning.

Finishing games incentives

+ $500K for 25 games finished

+ $500K for 30 games finished

+ $600K for 35 games finished

+ $600K for 40 games finished

+ $600K for 45 games finished

+ $600K for 50 games finished

+ $600K for 55 games finished

Total games finished incentive: $5M

This is the best incentive for both sides, as the fulfillment of it will mean Wainwright is good enough to finish games and he will be making money very similar to what he would as a starter. On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals would be blessed with the return one of the most fearless closers they’ve ever had.

The incentives are built so that the total relief incentives and the total starter incentives are equal, but there’s one major difference.

It will be much easier for Wainwright’s body to last through 60 relief appearances and 55 games finished than it would through 30 starts, so while the starter incentives are more expensive as he accumulates more starts, it will be much harder for him to achieve than rounding out the relief appearances.

More from Redbird Rants

• Cardinals Rumors: 3 pros and cons of signing Carlos Rodon
• What’s next for the St. Louis Cardinals after Contreras signing?
• Report: Cardinals Emerge As Mystery Team for Carlos Rodon
• Cardinals: Trade targets after signing Willson Contreras
• Reflecting on the 2013 Cardinals’ top 30 prospects

As I mentioned, it is a bit less player-friendly in that much of the relief based incentives rely on Wainwright finishing a considerable number of games. With Jordan Hicks on the horizon, it may be difficult for Wainwright to reach the games-finished incentive even if he is somehow performing better than Hicks. This makes it less appealing for Wainwright to stay in the bullpen if he isn’t the closer, but staying in the bullpen would make it easier for him to remain healthy.

Putting a bit more of the incentive money from the games-finished incentives to the gamesrelieved incentive would have allowed Wainwright to feel less pressure pitching in a setup or complimentary role in the bullpen, but I don’t think he particularly minds the loss of a couple million dollars of incentives this late in his career after coming off of a $97.5M contract.

Another possibility is that Wainwright could try to spend some time starting and some time relieving next year. This would make it even less likely that he hits the more expensive starting incentives and hit even the bottom of the relief incentives.

Even if he gets to 30 starts and 35 games finished, which is as far I could possibly see an effective Wainwright going, the total contract would only end up be $10.1M. At that point, if he was that involved within the pitching structure of the team, paying that kind of money will more likely than not have already proven to be worth it.

It’s difficult for me to be upset with this deal as a whole because it’s the closest thing to a “pay for performance” contract that we have seen. It allows the player to earn his money that season as opposed to being paid for past performance while minimizing the risk of overpaying for a rough season. It’s no doubt a win-win for both Wainwright and the Cardinals.

What do you think about this deal? Do you think it will allow the Cardinals to be flexible with Wainwright, or will his age be too much to overcome? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.