St. Louis Cardinals: Marcell Ozuna is due for a bounceback season

Marcell Ozuna has been considered one of the most disappointing St. Louis Cardinals of 2018, to the point where even John Mozeliak called him out. Ozuna’s numbers were poor, but there are plenty of things to suggest that Ozuna is primed for a solid 2019.

I understand the frustration of St. Louis Cardinals fans with the signing of Marcell Ozuna and his struggles in 2018, especially when his fate is so closely intertwined with Christian Yelich, who has broken out in 2018 as an elite player with MVP potential. It can be tough watching Yelich flourish on the Brewers while a bum shoulder was the story of Ozuna’s 2018.

However, the reaction is a bit strong from St. Louis Cardinals management and fans. Ozuna’s actually displayed decent streaks of hitting throughout the season, and calling him a lost cause or a mistake at this point is still premature.

The main reason is very simple: Marcell Ozuna hits the ball hard. Plain and simple. Ozuna’s average exit velocity of 91.5 miles per hour was 24th in the league this year. For perspective, Manny Machado’s average exit velocity was 91.6 mph. Additionally, Ozuna’s max exit velocity was 117.6 mph, which was the 26th hardest ball this season, and the 9th highest max exit velocity for a player this season.

One of the players with a higher max velocity and who has 16 of the top 25 hardest hit balls last season is another thing to consider: Giancarlo Stanton.

Seeing as Ozuna was essentially the backup plan following a failed Stanton pursuit, there was an expectation that Ozuna would anchor the middle of the lineup to a degree. However, Stanton unleashed a torrent of crushed baseballs, while Ozuna was more like a paltry stream for St. Louis Cardinals fans.

So if Ozuna actually hit the ball hard, then why was his slugging output so disappointing? Some will say that he wasn’t seeing the ball right, but that isn’t exactly it either. Ozuna’s overall contact rate went up two percentage points, rising to 76.6% in 2018. While this number is not particularly high, it shows that he’s still seeing the ball to a certain extent.

On top of that, he was hitting the ball harder more consistently than he ever has. His hard hit % jumped all the way up to 45.2% from 39.1%, and his soft hit % consequently dropped to 15.8% from 18.3%.

However, you can find some issues when you dig a little deeper. While Ozuna’s increased hard hit % is good on the surface, the way it was distributed was very poor. Here is a comparison of Ozuna’s hard hit balls from 2017 and 2018.

Obviously, hitting more ground balls isn’t the most productive thing you can imagine from the fourth spot. Despite hitting the ball hard, Ozuna was not getting the best contact on the ball. While this is a bad thing from one perspective, the fact that Ozuna is hitting the ball hard despite not making the most solid of contact is a positive sign for the upcoming season.

His increase at hitting the hard ball down the middle of the field may have hurt him as well. Center is the deepest part of the field, so it’s the hardest area to hit homers. This is part of what resulted just 13.9% of his fly balls leaving the park, despite him hitting the ball hard.

In fact, Ozuna’s overall spray chart was atypical. He pulled 42.2% of the balls he hit as a whole this season, compared to last season’s 38.6% and his career 39.3%. This could mean that his tendency to pull when he hits the ball hard combined with the responsibility of being the slugger on the team may have caused him to unconsciously pull the ball more.

I say this because Ozuna has proven to be very proactive in improving his game. He has reached out to coaches to work on his batting stance and mechanics, so it’s reasonable to think that he understands where he’s comfortable slugging the ball, even if he doesn’t explicitly feel it.

This unconscious pressure is something that you can say can fade away.with time and experience in the role. While he’s used to being a four hitter, having Stanton in front of you is much different than having Jose Martinez. Having a full season to work under Shildt and co. will also make things easier.

Ozuna’s fielding was a point of concern as well, his arm in particular. However, while Ozuna’s arm was poor this year, he lead left fielders in Outfield Arm Runs Saved in 2017, so he has demonstrated some arm strength. As a fielder, he also was decent in 2018, putting up a serviceable 8 Defensive Runs Saved.

It’s not the Gold Glove caliber defense that the St. Louis Cardinals were hoping for, but it could be much, much worse.

I think that’s the story of Ozuna’s relationship with the St. Louis Cardinals this year. The Cardinals and fans were certainly expecting much more production from him, but he didn’t have a remarkably terrible season. With the little things that he did, it seems that a healthy shoulder and a fresh season will only spell good things for Ozuna.

How do you feel about Marcell Ozuna? How will he do in 2019? Would you rather have someone else in his spot? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.