St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals’ reprieve is just a few walks away

Walks have been a huge problem for the St. Louis Cardinals, both offensively and defensively. The Cardinals need to improve their control of walks on both sides of the ball to begin to rebound from their latest struggles and compete.

First off, some of you might think it’s not that big of a deal, considering that the St. Louis Cardinals are barely below league average in OBP and walks allowed. However, there are isolated games that demonstrate how much of a problem it really is. in addition, there are different stats that more effectively paint the picture of how poorly the Cardinals have controlled the walk game.

The Cardinals have 3.5 BB/9, which is tied for seventh worst in the league, and their total walks drawn is tenth least. Let’s take a closer look at how the Cardinals have lacked control in the walk game.

Offense

I’m sure that you heard that the Cardinals didn’t draw a single walk in the series against the San Diego Padres, which is pretty scary if you think about it. Padre pitchers aren’t exactly much to call home about, and they actually have one more walk allowed on the season then St. Louis. That’s not just sad, that’s scary.

So what is going on? Matt Carpenter is still a walk drawing machine, and Tommy Pham has shown solid discipline so far this season. However, other players haven’t been as much so, with much maligned outfielder Dexter Fowler being a main culprit.

Here are some numbers from Fangraphs on Fowler’s discipline over the past four seasons:

While it is slight, Fowler has become less disciplined since his arrival in St. Louis. He was able to manage last season in part due to a high contact rate, but has simply been hacking away.

Now, he seems to be a free swinger, no more so demonstrated then when he popped out on a 3-0 count. While making contact in general is the biggest issue for Fowler right now, his terrible discipline and lack of a plan at the plate doesn’t help either.

Fowler isn’t the only player whose numbers have dropped in recent years. Yadier Molina was one of the most disciplined players on the team, and while he didn’t get an overwhelming number of walks, his strikeout numbers were incredibly low. However, that changed at a certain point.

Why did I go as far back as 2011? Well, 2012 was Mark McGwire‘s final year as hitting coach, and 2013 was the beginning of John Mabry‘s tenure. It’s clear that there is a jump in O-Swing% in 2013, and his strikeout numbers crawled up while his walk numbers fluctuated moderately at a low number. This dropoff coincides with Fowler’s decline in discipline upon hitting under Mabry.

Here are the Cardinals’ walk totals over McGwire’s last two years, Mabry’s first two seasons, and 2018 in order to see his influence on the discipline as a whole:

While the St. Louis Cardinals were always head and shoulders above league average during McGwire’s tenure, the Cardinals have been consistently around or below the league average in walks drawn while Mabry has been the hitting coach. While there are exceptions to the rule, like Marcel Ozuna, the players that play well in spite of Mabry are the ones that are obsessed in their preparation like Ozuna, and even those guys can be hindered somewhat as Molina has been.

For too long, many Cardinals hitters have shown a distinct lack in approach, and it is apparent that the hitting coach isn’t doing much to stop his players from hacking away. If the Cardinals want to return to their former dominance, showing better discipline is a good first step.

Carlos and the ‘Pen

Putting the blame on the whole staff for some of the abysmal walking festivals that the Cardinals have put on is unfair to guys like Miles Mikolas, who has been a breath of fresh air in the walking category. The main issues here are Carlos Martinez and the egregiously inconsistent bullpen.

Greg Holland was a guy who was picked up because he could throw strikes, and he hasn’t been able to do that. Trevor Rosenthal‘s fall from grace stemmed from his inability to locate the ball in the strike zone towards the end of his tenure. Guys like Sam Tuivailala and Matt Bowman still struggle remaining consistent from outing to outing. And Brett Cecil…we don’t need to talk about Brett Cecil.

The main point is the St. Louis Cardinals need relievers who can throw strikes consistently, and a big reason the bullpen has 12 of the team’s 32 losses. I don’t need to go into how bad the bullpen has been this season because if you’ve watched the Cardinals at all this season, you know these relievers just can’t throw strikes consistently.

The Cardinals have walked 9.11% of the batters they have faced this year, compared to the 8.57% league average. The Cardinals need to keep the ball in the zone, and this especially applies to relievers whose jobs are to get the team through late innings in close games.

The other big problem is having an ace that can walk six batters in 3.2 innings. Carlos Martinez is averaging just under four walks per appearance in 2018, and has walked more than four batters in his last three appearances.

I am going to keep it simple and clear: As a number one pitcher for an MLB team, that is absolutely unacceptable. Martinez must somehow get into a long-term rhythm and cut down on the inconsistencies. Especially against bad teams and division rivals.

He doesn’t need to keep teams under three runs every game, but walking guys at the rate Martinez is doesn’t win baseball games. If Martinez or the St. Louis Cardinals want to take the next step, the walks have got to stop.

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Do you think that walks have been a big problem for the St. Louis Cardinals? What side of the ball would you like them to see fix first? Do the Cardinals have a chance to make a run if they fix these problems? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.