St. Louis Cardinals: Brett Cecil could really help the bullpen

The St. Louis Cardinals spent a lot of money on Brett Cecil, and he is not living up to the paycheck. While he has been bad, there is good news. He could help the bullpen in a big way.

Despite how he is throwing this year, he be a reliable arm. He has collected ten innings in 13 appearances with an ERA over six this season. The fact that the St. Louis Cardinals are paying him 7.5 million dollars a year brings with it the expectation that he will be reliable. Brett Cecil has not thrown a scoreless outing in the last three times out. That includes five walks.

So, with all that, I must be crazy to think that Cecil has hope. But, I don’t believe that I am.

Brett Cecil And The Curveball

The question to ask is, which Brett Cecil are the Cardinals hoping for? Obviously, it is not the one they have gotten. It is more likely the 2015 version of him that posted a 1.4 WAR and a 2.39 xFIP in 2015. That was the peak of his performance, and he is not pitching like he did back then.

Fangraphs shows his curveball usage up to about 40 percent, and then up near 50 the following year when he was at his best. Since joining the St. Louis Cardinals, than number is in the mid 30’s or lower. His fastball usage is up too. All of that may not seem like a huge difference, but it is.

Why Do The Percentages Matter?

One look at batting averages against his different pitches on Brooks Baseball gives the answer. Over the years, there are two pitches that consistently draw the lowest batting averages against. His curveball and his changeup draw the least hits. During his two years in the Cardinals bullpen, the changeup has been lower than his breaker.

With the averages for his offspeed sitting in the mid .200’s, and his others sitting closer to (and over) .300, there is a clear difference. Playing into what works would not be the worst thing in the world. In fact, it may help.

The other thing to look at is his whiff percentages. This year his fastball is consistent with his other pitches as far as swings and misses. In years prior, his breaking ball has a tendency to create a lot more whiffs, and the same with his changeup. Both of those pitches are proven to get by hitters, and using those more would do a lot of good.

So, What Should Cecil Do?

If Cecil starts to put an uptick in the usage of his slow stuff it will help the faster pitches. Something needs to happen, his cutter is getting hit at a clip of .750 this season, and his fastball is .286. Flashing the slow stuff early will speed up the faster ones. With his fastball averaging 90, he can use the help.

A few adjustments in approach will help out a lot. All he has to do is start throwing his curveball more. It is simple, but that is why he could be such a help. Cecil figuring it out would give the St. Louis Cardinals a reliable option out of the bullpen.

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Based on his contract, using him sparingly is not the answer. He can do a lot of good for the team if they let him. Cecil has some really good offspeed stuff and he needs to use it more. The St. Louis Cardinals could get a great reliever.