St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals refusal to embrace the shift may be hurting them

MILWAUKEE, WI - MAY 28: Matt Carpenter #13 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on May 28, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WI - MAY 28: Matt Carpenter #13 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on May 28, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. MLB players across the league are wearing special uniforms to commemorate Memorial Day. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
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St. Louis Cardinals
ARLINGTON, TX – MAY 05: Joey Gallo #13 of the Texas Rangers watches the ball on a solo home run in the second inning of a baseball game agaisnt the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Park in Arlington on May 5, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)

Teams have been employing shifts more and more as a tactic to manipulate and neutralize certain hitters, especially against lefties. The St. Louis Cardinals have not been one of those teams.

The St. Louis Cardinals need not look far to find prime examples.

Everyone knows that Rangers slugger Joey Gallo is notorious for his pull power, but his numbers have plummeted towards the norm in recent years.

Gallo Pull% Cent% Opp%
2015 64.7% 27.5% 7.8%
2017 49.6% 29.4% 21%
2018 37% 31.9% 31.1%

I’m sure you heard about Alex Bregman playing left field during a Gallo at-bat in one of the most extreme shifts baseball has ever seen. The Astros played to his notorious power and lack of bat control and ball placement to form a unique looking defense with a glaring flaw.

Trying to pull a ball against this defense is essentially impossible, and any standard grounder, line drive, or even bunt will result in at least a free single. Yet somehow, Gallo still managed to record an out.

What’s more, he hit the ball towards the hole in the opposite field. But he hit it right to Bregman stationed in left field. The Astros aren’t the only ones to attempt this kind of bait shift against Gallo. In fact, a majority of opponents this season have left the third base side of the infield open, yet Gallo has only managed hit .198 so far in 2018.

Teams are shifting more aggressively against left handed hitters in particular, with 30.4% of left handed batter at-bats being defended by a shift in 2018, compared to just 22.1% in 2017 and 24.2% in 2016.

The Cardinals are not one of those teams. In fact, they have had some of the most stagnant defensive positioning in the MLB over the last 3 seasons.

Shifts against LHH Cards (Rank in League) League Average Overal Shifts Cards (Rank in League) League Average
2016 16.1% (24) 24.20%  2016 7.8% (25) 13.80%
2017 5.7% (30) 22.10%  2017 2.9% (29) 12.10%
2018 7.4% (28) 20.40%  2018 4.5% (28) 17.30%

Schedule