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St. Louis Cardinals: Pros and cons of a 6-man rotation
All indications seem to hint that the St. Louis Cardinals may begin the 2018 season utilizing a 6-man rotation.
The St. Louis Cardinals experienced a gluttony of outfielders in 2017 and this spring they seem to be replacing this with a gluttony of pitchers. This does not mean that all of the names in the cornucopia will break camp with the Cardinals, but the big names seem to indicate the organization is contemplating starting the season with six men in the starting rotation.
The likes of Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver, and Miles Mikolas reported to pitchers and catchers day as the presumed starting five. There seemed to be no competition for these starting spots, right?
Just prior to pitchers and catchers report date, the St. Louis Cardinals added Bud Norris. While he may no longer be considered a bonafide starter, Norris’ addition allows the club to consider a 6-man rotation.
Adding Tyler Lyons as a consideration for starting and one can see that the Cardinals may- in fact- start the season with a six-man rotation.
But wait, there’s more…
Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes could fill in at any point as well. This means that the St. Louis Cardinals have the following menu choices for their starting rotation:
- Carlos Martinez
- Michael Wacha
- Adam Wainwright
- Luke Weaver
- Miles Mikolas
- Bud Norris
- Tyler Lyons
- Jack Flaherty
- Alex Reyes
The question remains as to whether this is the right choice for the team. Let’s examine the positives and negatives surrounding utilizing a 6-man rotation at the start of the 2018 season for the St. Louis Cardinals.
The St. Louis Cardinals would be wise to use a 6-man rotation for many reasons.
The St. Louis Cardinals’ starting rotation is not one made up of young arms as some of the progressive clubs. That said, the rotation is not made up of washed-up arms (at least not yet). While some may believe that Wainwright is old and done, the veteran of the rotation is showing fire unmatched by others his age.
While Waino is the oldest of the starting pitchers, he is closely followed in age by Norris, Lyons, and Mikolas and then a drop in ages to Martinez and Wacha, and then to the really young arms of Weaver, Reyes, and Flaherty. Here’s a breakdown of the ages of the St. Louis Cardinals’ arms in question:
- Adam Wainwright, 36 years old
- Bud Norris, 32 years old
- Tyler Lyons, 30 years old
- Miles Mikolas, 29 years old
- Carlos Martinez, 26 years old
- Michael Wacha, 26 years old
- Luke Weaver, 24 years old
- Alex Reyes, 23 years old
- Jack Flaherty, 22 years old
Three of the starters have breached the 30-year mark wherein most pitchers begin the decline of their careers. Last year’s performance from Wainwright stood as example of the age decline which could be assumed to continue this season (if not for his self-report of being in better shape than he was in the past two seasons).
Norris has been called a washed-up starter which isn’t alleviated by his 32 years. Luckily, the St. Louis Cardinals did not necessarily sign Norris to be the fifth starter. The presumed fifth starter- Mikolas- hasn’t been favored by critics any better than Norris and HIS near-30 years aren’t alleviating these critiques.
Considering the ages, one positive to a 6-man rotation would be the lessened workload on certain pitchers. In other words, Martinez and Wacha may pitch every fifth day while others likes Wainwright and Mikolas could be allowed to skip a start by inserting Norris or Reyes or Flaherty into their slot.
The same could be true for Weaver. One worry the St. Louis Cardinals carried through 2017 was over-exposing Weaver to the Bigs. It would be very easy to argue that the same concern exists in 2018. Additionally, the Cardinals were conservative with Weaver’s innings count in 2017 and may look to only add a few additional innings this season. Lyons or others could fill in for him as needed.
Another positive to a 6-man rotation would be the protection from injury. Should Wainwright or another suffer time on the disabled list, the sixth man would already be in the “rotation” and would not need to bounce back and forth on the I-55 shuttle between St. Louis and Memphis.
A final positive would be the quick ability to replace high ERA and poor performance immediately as needed. Should a pitcher suffer through two games of rough outing then he could easily skip his next start or two and not be missed. This only happens if the St. Louis Cardinals carry the extra arm in the rotation.
Do any of these positives make sense enough to take a bench spot away from a pen arm or another infielder? Perhaps the answer lies in the negatives. Let’s look.
The St. Louis Cardinals would be wise to avoid the 6-man rotation.
The St. Louis Cardinals might be considering a 6-man rotation but this would not be wise. There are so many reasons arguing against a six-man rotation that may prove to be too great of obstacles to this route of gamesmanship.
Should the St. Louis Cardinals utilize the 6-man rotation, whoever sits in the number-six spot will be taking a roster spot from a backup hitter/infielder/outfielder/speed man. With runs being a thing of importance, a lost bench spot could spell disaster for the Cardinals.
To this point, already in Spring Training, the St. Louis Cardinals have taken extended (three games counting Sunday’s contest) looks at the likes of Luke Voit, Tyler O’Neill, and Greg Garcia. A 6-man rotation would likely steal an available spot for one of these backups.
Adding to the cons, a sixth man in the rotation would likely remove a pen arm as well. If we keep with the thinking illustrated in the first three games of Spring Training, the St. Louis Cardinals are considering the pen arms of Jack Flaherty (possible 6th man), Jordan Hicks, and others. The team must consider which value they are interested in adding.
To recap the negatives, the St. Louis Cardinals will need to consider if whether it is wiser to protect the position players and/or add or protect the bullpen. Should the organization add a batter to combat against the rising difficulties of the NL-Central or should the organization reserve the spot for a strengthened bullpen to better the numbers witnessed in 2017?
Here’s the skinny of both: if abandoning the 6-man rotation idea, the Cardinals could add Voit’s projected eight home runs and projected slash of .254/.322/.436 to the bench, or O’Neill’s 31 home runs and 95 RBIs (from 2017) to the bench. OR, the St. Louis Cardinals could decide to keep Greg Garcia on the squad to backup the infield and bring his projected OPS of .736.
Garcia is out of options, by the way, which means he has to break camp with the big league club or go to other pastures.
To the pitching side, Flaherty looks to be a future starter and- I predict- if he isn’t this season’s sixth man, then he will likely find himself in Memphis. This leaves the Cardinals needing to decide if Jordan Hicks or Sam Tuivailala or Dominic Leone are better fits for the Cards’ pen to hold and save games.
The pen was an issue in 2017 and cost many starters precious victories so this might play deeply into the St. Louis Cardinals’ plans for 2018.
The St. Louis Cardinals should take the risk on a 6-man rotation at the start of 2018, but maybe not too long into the season.
After examining the pros and cons listed on the previous slides, I find myself hoping that the St. Louis Cardinals start 2018 using the 6-man idea. I would love to see the Cardinals use Flaherty, Norris, and Lyons to fill the sixth slot.
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By using Flaherty, Norris, and Lyons to fill the sixth spot, the pen isn’t terribly compromised. The names currently under consideration for the pen- in relation to the pen being an issue of argument against the sixth man- will do well to begin the season in Memphis due to the youthfulness of their ages. Jordan Hicks is a perfect example of this.
Hicks will do well and will likely be the St. Louis Cardinals closer at some point in 2018 or by 2019 but for the current time, it would serve him better to start the season in Memphis and get greater exposure.
When Flaherty, Norris, or Lyons is not filling the sixth spot, they would naturally fit into bullpen strategies. The real negative to this, however, is the ebb and flow that regular starting carries in opposition to the daily regularity of bullpen pitching. I believe this will be easiest on Lyons and Norris who have both served the simultaneous rolls in the past.
As to the bench, I believe that decisions will be made to alleviate the loss of a larger backup bench. What do I mean by this? Spring Training often brings with it injuries and the removal of a cog such as Matt Carpenter (who is recovering already from back stiffness) would open a “regular” spot for Jose Martinez or Voit. My guess is that Garcia gets the backup bench spot by default.
So those are my thoughts. While the 6-man idea isn’t that great, I believe the negatives do not (at least initially) prelude the club from starting 2018 with this experiment. April is the best month to find the benefits or flaws in the experiment and makes changes as needed.