St. Louis Cardinals: Putting together the 2018 lineup

With the off season beginning to wind down and Spring Training waiting in the wings, it’s time to start thinking about how the St. Louis Cardinals are going to look offensively for the 2018 season.

While Mike Matheny has proposed many lineups, there isn’t all that much to change for this upcoming season. Obviously, the addition of Marcell Ozuna is big, but he isn’t going to force a huge lineup overhaul. We aren’t building around him. He is another piece that fills another hold for the St. Louis Cardinals, albeit a big one.

That being said, while some players will be displaced from their spot in the lineup, it will look similar to the 2017 lineup. At the end of the day, many of the players on the team found their niche in a certain spot, or have a clear role their game has evolved into over the years, so there is no need for some humongous shakeup.

However, there will still be a few changes and players hitting in spots that they haven’t before, in part because of the way their game has developed and because how the team has changed with the addition of Ozuna. The place a player resides in a lineup greatly impacts his offensive production. The way Matheny constructs the lineup will be a huge factor in how the St. Louis Cardinals play this season.

Here is my ideal lineup to start the 2018 season.

Carpenter’s elite vision makes him a suitable lead off

The fact there is even a question as to who will lead off in 2018 is mind-boggling to me. Sure, he had a down year, and has become less of a traditional, contact lead off hitter in favor of higher power numbers. However, there is still no question Matt Carpenter still has some of the best plate discipline on the team, as demonstrated by his high OBP in comparison to his AVG.

Carpenter lead the MLB with 199 hits in 2013 and 95 walks in 2014, both key factors to building a traditional contact lead off hitter. While he is not quite the same player he was then, he is still the most suited to be the leadoff.

2017: .241/.384/.451, 23 home runs, 69 RBI’s in 622 PA’s

2017 as #1 hitter: .268/.418/.497, 14 home runs, 42 RBI’s in 389 PA’s

Career as #1 hitter: .291/.391/.487, 73 home runs, 285 RBI’s in 2594 PA’s

Carpenter has spent a majority of his career and a solid portion of last season in the leadoff role and did better than average both in 2017 and overall in his career. While his style has become more of a mid-lineup player in his pursuit of power over contact in recent years, but he still maintained the second highest on-base percentage.

While there could be an argument for the player with the top on base percentage, who will be discussed next, as being at the top of the lineup, Carpenter drew 109 walks in 2017, 38 more than the next player on the team, demonstrating vision and discipline that is significantly better than the rest of the team. There is no player with a combination of elite contact ability and vision on this team that is worth taking Carpenter out of this spot for.

Comfort Zone: Pham stays second in the lineup

Unlike Carpenter, whose skill set is more applicable to the role of leadoff, Tommy Pham simply fits here because he hits well in the two spot traditionally. Pham was the best player on the St. Louis Cardinals last year out of the two spot, posting a team high 5.0 oWAR mostly hitting in that spot in 2017.

Whether it is comfort with the early out situations, protection behind him, or just finding a good rhythm, there is no question that Pham always seems to hit best as the number two hitter. While he isn’t an OBP revelation, he did draw 71 walks on the season, second on the team, and hitting in the low .300’s more than makes up for it.

2017: .306/.411/.520, 23 home runs, 73 RBI’s in 530 PA’s

2017 as #2 hitter: .313/.420/.520, 16 home runs, 54 RBI’s in 397 PA’s

Career as #2 hitter: .310/.414/.509, 17 home runs, 61 RBI’s in 476 PA’s

Pham acts as a reliable producer while presenting the threat to advance the leadoff Carpenter. He is also one of the few threats that the St. Louis Cardinals have on the base paths, picking up 25 steals and was caught just 7 times. This adds another dimension of layer of pressure to pitchers when having to face Ozuna, even if Carpenter is out beforehand.

Like Carpenter in the leadoff spot, Pham has spent most of his time as the second hitter in the lineup and has done better in that role than in other spots in the lineup both in 2017 and in his career in general. While his strong contact in 2017 makes it tempting to put him in the leadoff role, there’s no reason to move him out of his comfort zone with Carpenter still in the fray.

Put your money where your mouth is: Ozuna is the three-hole

The resounding silver medal of the off-season, Marcell Ozuna comes to the St. Louis Cardinals as their best hitter, even if he regresses towards his .277 career average. The Cardinals have been looking for a hitter to feature in the middle of their lineup since the departure of Albert Pujols, and many were hopeful Giancarlo Stanton would be that piece.

Well, he wasn’t, so the Cardinals went and got the next best thing this off-season in Ozuna. While he isn’t the slugging monolith Stanton is, he is still worthy of being featured as the number three hitter. The Cardinals haven’t had a player with at least 100 RBI’s in a season since Matt Holliday in 2012. Hopefully Ozuna will be the one to break that in the three-hole with solid hitters ahead of him.

2017: .312/.376/.548, 37 home runs, 124 RBI’s in 679 PA’s

2017 as #3 hitter: .362/.413/.569, 3 home runs, 9 RBI’s in 63 PA’s

Career as #3 hitter: .345/.396/.571, 5 home runs, 12 RBI’s in 91 PA’s

Some might argue Paul DeJong, who excelled hitting third last season, should be in this spot. However, Ozuna is simple a better hitter overall, and we are still unsure DeJong won’t go through a regression similar to Aledmys Diaz next season. In addition, Ozuna is the “big bat” acquisition the Cardinals have been looking for years. He will be treated like it unless he doesn’t produce.

The St. Louis Cardinals traded for Ozuna with the premise that he would be the best hitter on the team and gave away enough elite prospects for him to make that impression. He has demonstrated himself to be a capable hitter in 2017, but whether that remarkable season is the breakout of Ozuna or just a flash in a frying pan will have a huge impact on the Cardinals. If Ozuna performs here, this Cardinals offense can flourish.

Brimming with potential, DeJong stays in middle of lineup

While it seems somewhat counterproductive to put a strikeout glutton like Paul DeJong in the cleanup spot, his power in comparison with the remaining players makes it almost impossible to knock him down any further given he at least stays close to on pace with his rookie year.

While his lack of career success in the four spot might be off-putting to some, the fact of the matter is that we really don’t know how he will perform outside of the three spot simply because there is almost zero sample size anywhere else. With the way the line up was constructed last season, DeJong was the only player with the kind of power to hit at the three spot in 2017, so that’s where he resided.

2017: .285/.325/.532, 25 home runs, 65 RBI’s in 443 PA’s

2017 as #4 hitter: .125/.125/.500, 1 home run, 1 RBI in 8 PA’s

Career as #4 hitter: .125/.125/.500, 1 home run, 1 RBI in 8 PA’s

With Ozuna in the mix, that is no longer the case. Because he was forced there more out of necessity than localized comfort in the lineup, I do not think his hitting will suffer as the result of moving DeJong to fourth in the lineup. His strikeout rate is somewhat concerning, but he has been able to make up for that with a .349 BABIP and a 36.4% hard hit rate.

Overall, DeJong provides the biggest threat and best protection to Ozuna because of his above average pop. His power and batting sense will hopefully continue to develop, and he should grow into this spot nicely as the season progresses.

A jack of all trades, Fowler’s role is the most flexible in the lineup.

Dexter Fowler is an interesting case, similar to ‘tweeners in basketball like Derrick Williams. While the idea of height is not relevant in this case, the fact is that Fowler doesn’t quite fit into a traditional player archetype. He has a decent eye, but not good enough to serve in the top of the lineup. He also has a decent amount of pop, but once again, it’s not enough for him to be a slugger.

2017: .264/.363/.488, 18 home runs, 64 RBI’s in 491 PA’s

2017 as #5 hitter: .364/.417/.636, 1 home run, 3 RBI’s in 12 PA’s

Career as #5 hitter: .400/.438/.667, 1 home run, 4 RBI’s in 16 PA’s

As such, he is best in the most transitional spot in the lineup. Despite an average that is a bit lower than you would want out of a five hitter, Fowler’s OBP and decent slugging ability gives him a nice niche to fill as both middle of the lineup protection and a “leadoff” for the bottom of the lineup.

Whether he needs to be a middle of the lineup spark plug or act as reliable protection for DeJong, Fowler’s “jack of all trades” style works best as the bridge between the top and the bottom of the lineup. However, Fowler’s spot in the  lineup is arguably the most volatile.

With a higher average in 2017 and a more reliable track record in St. Louis, many people would argue Yadier Molina is better suited for this spot because of his lower strikeout rate and a history of being a reliable, clutch hitter. However, there are two main factors I believe make Fowler a better option here.

The first is Fowler’s slugging percentage, which was higher than Yadi’s due to the fact Fowler had the same amount of doubles and home runs in 53 less plate appearances. In addition, Fowler had nine triples last season, while Yadi has had seven in his entire career. Fowler’s RBI numbers are diminished simply because he spent most of last season as the leadoff hitter.

The second reason, which partly plays into the first one, is speed. Yadi’s lack of speed has contributed to him registering a significantly lower BABIP than Fowler’s .305 mark. This also directly relates to the potential for extra base hits, which not only increases run production, but gives the next hitter an opportunity to drive you in.

Fowler’s style allows him to be put in an assortment of roles and spots in the lineup, and Yadi’s strong numbers make it easier to take Fowler out of this spot than any. However, I do think that, assuming he produces as he should,  this is the best spot for both him and the Cardinals as a whole.

Old but Gold: Yadi still an essential contributor

Yadier Molina is an immortal piece of St. Louis Cardinals history and is a first ballot Hall of Famer. However, age has seen Yadi’s offensive production take a bit of a hit, so sliding him down a bit in a more talented line up makes sense.

2017: .273/.312/.439, 18 home runs, 82 RBI’s in 543 PA’s

2017 as #6 hitter: .255/.288/.468, 2 home runs, 5 RBI’s in 52 PA’s

Career as #6 hitter: .297/.349/.418, 36 home runs, 219 RBI’s in 1999 PA’s

Make no mistake, he can still hit the ball well enough to be an offensive asset. That is why he is still in the very relevant six spot, ready to drive in the middle of the line up. Yadi was great with runners in scoring position last season, slashing .315/.338/.476 with 64 RBI in those scenarios in 2017.

Some may argue Yadi should be fifth instead of Fowler based off of Yadi’s elite RISP numbers and better overall average. However, it is far easier for Yadi to drive in Fowler as opposed to the other way around due to Yadi’s lack of speed. In addition, Fowler’s ability to get extra base hits and put himself in scoring position will only make Yadi’s job easier.

As mentioned before, Yadi could switch with Fowler and see no complaints as the fifth hitter, but I would rather see him here when considering the fact that subtle signs are showing that age is creeping in on Yadi. While he is still one of the elites in staving off strikeouts, he finished with a career high 13.6 K%. While this number is still among the best, it shows that Father Time might finally be taking it’s toll.

He is still an important producer on this St. Louis Cardinals team, and this production would be wasted should he be placed any lower than six. Having Yadi sit back as a secondary run driving threat and ahead of a low average, high power player (who we’ll be talking about next) is important to fully utilize him while hiding his base running deficiencies as much as possible.

Ozuna’s arrival bumps Gyorko down

The big over-achiever of the 2017 Cardinals, Jedd Gyorko has shown the peak of his hitting abilities, which made him more than just a serviceable player. However, Gyorko was a career .238 hitter with a .296 OBP for four seasons before 2017, which may make it unrealistic to expect the same kind of production over another 162 games.

That being said, one spot where Gyorko has done considerably better than normal over the course of his career is the seven hole. While he didn’t get much time there because of the way the personnel panned out over the course of a season, this year’s team should give him more opportunities in this low-pressure spot.

2017: .272/.341/.472, 20 home runs, 67 RBI’s in 481 PA’s

2017 as #7 hitter: .192/.364/.385, 1 home run, 5 RBI’s in 33 PA’s

Career as #7 hitter: .268/.335/.461, 16 home runs, 49 RBI’s in 367 PA’s

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Keeping Gyorko out of the eight spot is important because it protects him from intentional walks, allowing the potential power from his bat to have more time in the spotlight.

As mentioned before, if this power shines through, it will alleviate pressure on Yadi to have to run — there is no need to run fast if the ball is at or over the fence — while alleviating the pressure of wasting a good base runner on the low average Gyorko.

While his power production last season may make an argument for seeing Gyorko higher in the lineup, he needs to continue to sustain the production he had in 2017 in order to be considered, but the circumstances mentioned above and the lineup construction makes it difficult to argue anyone out of their spot in favor of Gyorko.

Overall, Gyorko’s skill set seems to best fit in the seventh spot. On this team, it just so happens that the seventh spot is made for him.