Full Rotation: The St. Louis Cardinals and starters in the NL-Central

There’s been much concern about the starting pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2018. With about 44 percent of the St. Louis Cardinals 2018 schedule — 72 out of 162 games — against their National League Central division rivals, assessing competitive strength versus their closest foes is a good place to start.

Why is that, do you ask? If the St. Louis Cardinals want to be a playoff team, don’t they have to stack up well against the entire league, not just the division? Well, surely, when it comes time for postseason play, the test will be broader and the challenges more extensive.

But consider this: with the most games against their NL-Central rivals, the Cards could overcome many other weaknesses with a strong showing in the division. Consider that if the team were to play .600 ball against the division and .500 against all others, that alone would get them to 88 wins, a decent enough place, maybe even a Wild Card spot.

And that’s hardly the whole story. Between midseason call-ups and trades, the potential abounds for improvement to stretch that win total. So if things are going reasonably well come end of July, we’re probably not talking about the team standing pat, but trying to enhance their potential not only for making the playoffs, but extending their run once there.

So getting an edge versus their division foes is an important exercise, and a big part of that is in building the starting pitching advantage vis a vis the other four Central clubs. With that in mind, let’s evaluate and grade the current crop of anticipated starters for the five teams.

We’ll do this with two different goals in mind. The first is the strength of what is at this point expected to be the Top Five starters for each of the teams. Then we’ll look at their depth, and how they are each able to withstand injury and poor performance by the presumed initial rotation. A grade is given for each.

Let’s start our exploration with our favorite St. Louis Cardinals.

Anticipated Starters: Carlos Martinez, Luke Weaver, Michael Wacha, Miles Mikolas, Adam Wainwright
In the Wings: Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Tyler Lyons, John Gant and more.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the top of this rotation is not comparable to the top rotations in baseball. No one, not even CMart, has proven to be Max Scherzer or Clayton Kershaw. Domination is not the hallmark of this group. Depth both in and beyond the starting five is its key.

Don’t get me wrong, the potential for greatness is there. Martinez has shown at times that his wild combo of seemingly indefatigable speed and every-which-way breaking stuff can confound any lineup. But last year was a marked regression after brilliant 2015 and 2016 campaigns, based on which he was seemingly poised to join all but the most select starters in baseball. That didn’t happen.

Could it? Sure, and we’ll be giddy if it does. Because after Alex Reyes returns to starting form, most likely mid-season to avoid the post-surgery travails of the likes of Stephen Strasburg, the St. Louis Cardinals could have a deadly one-two punch. Reyes’ upside is highly touted, and even if he starts out the year in the bullpen as expected, we’ll get glimpses of what the future could bring.

The other option for dominance is if either the emerging Weaver or the rebounding Wacha excels beyond expectations. The former, other than his final two starts, showcased the essence of power pitching, pounding the ball down and with mid-90s velocity. If his maturation continues apace, watch out; a Lance Lynn-like growth curve is not out of the question.

Wacha is the intriguing one to me, though. He brought his performance back to a reasonable level after his shortened 2016 campaign (which mirrored his 2014 one), and he got his strikeouts up and both his ERA and FIP down. A repeat of 2017 for Wacha would make for some very pleasant mid-rotation solidity.

Mikolas was scouted in the Pacific Rim the last couple years not only by the Cardinals but the dreaded Chicago Cubs, and the Cards were able to win this competition for a whole lot less than what the Cubs shelled out to grab Jason Heyward from St. Louis. And if the righty’s performance dovetails with what the scouts saw in Japan, we are in for some significant depth in the front four of this group.

You’ll notice I didn’t include Wainwright in the above-mentioned group. That is because other than for some limited stretches, Waino has not performed with the flair and strength that he exhibited for most of his career through 2014. Despite the positive rhetoric spewing from the team, one cannot give a four-year free pass in assessing future performance.

I’m fine with Waino having a place in the rotation if he can beat out the other competitors for the slot, and all things being equal, his amazing career merits him the benefit of the doubt. But rarely are all things equal, so we’ll have to see what February brings.

Where I started with this group was depth, and the ability to slot in capable arms if anyone gets hurt or has a major hiccup. We saw the first of Flaherty at this level last year, and he just wasn’t ready, at least in the sense of being able to dominate or consistently perform well at this level. His second shot should provide a marked improvement, but I see Memphis at the outset.

Gant and Lyons both have the potential to handle a multiplicity of roles, in my opinion. Bullpenning as the bridge between starters and the back-enders; spot starting; mop-up roles, or stretching out to slip into a needed rotation spot if something bad happens.

These guys may be punished in a way for their versatility. With Lyons out of options, we won’t likely see him at AAA absent a surprise; Gant could remain down to start and be ready in case of a major-league falter.

These aren’t all the guys, of course. Dakota Hudson’s been an oft-mentioned trade chip but he could remain in the Memphis starting mix. Mike Mayers hasn’t handled his brief spots in the bigs well at all. Austin Gomber impressed well at AA Springfield, with a strikeout per inning and a fine WHIP, so we’ll see where this year takes him at the next level up.

And Sandy Alcantara is gone, the necessary chip in the Marcell Ozuna deal.

In short, the expected major league rotation for the Redbirds gets a solid B, with the prospect for a B+ if all cylinders kick in. And on the depth side, the team gets an A- for its strong insurance value against the unknown.

We now turn our attention to the dreaded rivals of the St. Louis Cardinas, the Chicago Cubs.

Anticipated Starters: Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, Tyler Chatwood, Eddie Butler
In the Wings: Mike Montgomery, Jen-Ho Tseng, Drew Smyly (likely recovering til 2019),

Losing the likes of Jake Arrieta and John Lackey is a major issue for any club, and in the Cubs’ case, urgency exists to fill their roles while the position player core remains at its prime. Fortunately for them, the team has some remaining very strong pieces, is a player in the free agent market, and has already made one key acquisition.

The North Siders have had great success the last several years after the hugely successful Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer rebuild. One of the downsides of that kind of progress is the thinning of minor league ranks, and the Cubs are no exception.

The team still has impressive major leaguers to fill most of the rotation, and by all accounts, they are not done. The Cubs have been mentioned in connection with Yu Darvish and other free agents, so the analysis here is subject to any possible additions.

Lester’s bona fides with both Boston and the Cubs are well known to almost every MLB fan. He had a modestly good year in 2017, but nowhere near some of his previous outstanding years. In fact, his ERA+ was at its worst since 2012. So at 34 as the season starts, it’s not at all career he can handle the ace role at this point in his fine career.

Neither can Kyle Hendricks be considered the number one. You might have thought so after his crazy good 2016, but a strange hand injury shortened this past season, and returned his performance from outstanding to just very good. He can easily be seen as co-equal with Lester at this point, and perhaps ahead, given that he’s only 28. Not bad for a 39th-round pick from 2008.

Just a tad older than Hendricks is Quintana, who came over from the South Side last year as the White Sox continued to purge in anticipation of the massive and successful rebuild of their own. Quintana has almost always been good, You’ll never likely find him among the league leaders in ERA, but other than early 2017, you never saw him above the mid-3s either.

Rarely does a major league rotation have a more solid number three than Jose, and he’d be a true number two for many lesser teams.

Tyler Chatwood just came to the Cubs via free agency, a shrewd and timely grab for the front office. No doubt eager to show his wares outside Coors Field, Chatwood was highly prized by many teams, given his career 3.31 ERA on the road (almost all while with the Rockies).

While Wrigley Field can be super challenging on a “blowing out” day, there are plenty of times there when the wind favors the pticher. For the Cubs, the three-year, $38M contract is a true solidifier for the bottom half of this rotation.

From there the most likely back-ender is Eddie Butler, who also joined the Cubs from Colorado for the 2017 campaign. With double digit starts, Butler began to fulfill the promise of a first-round draft pick. But it’s always possible that Mike Montgomery, another former top pick for the Royals who came to the Cubs via Seattle, could jump Butler, as he too had a fine set of starts for the Cubs in 2017.

It’s a good thing that the Cubs are solid with these six, because while the club has some promising prospects, the situation is kind of in Upside-Down World.

By that I mean that their best pitching youngsters, like Venezuelan Adbert Alzolay, and LSU prospect Alex Lange, both right-handed and 22, are probably realistically a year or two away. While others are closer to ready, like Jen-Ho Tseng, they’re lower-ceiling guys and not likely to play a role in the bigs other than emergency or short-term fill-in.

The Cubs are in some ways the opposite of the St. Louis Cardinals on the rotation front. Their sure-thing quotient is better than that of the Redbirds, but their minor-league, near-term prospects aren’t likely to provide the backup protection that St. Louis’ contingent can provide.

Give the Cubs a B+ on the current rotation, with a chance of improving to an A or A- if a significant free agent comes on board. But ding them on the depth side; right now I’d hand them a B-, though again, if a power arm joins the club, that alone will push the depth to at least a B if not better.

Will the one-time threat to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Milwaukee Brewers, return to form in 2018?

Anticipated Starters: Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, Yovani Gallardo, Jhoulys Chacin
In the Wings: Jimmy Nelson (recovering til ?), Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter, Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Aaron Wilkerson

By any reasonable expectations, the Brewers had a successful 2017 campaign, beating out the St. Louis Cardinals for second place in the Central and finishing ten games over .500.

Contrary to the beliefs of many, this success wasn’t due to the team’s anticipated strong offense. No, Milwaukee’s pitching was every bit as good as that of the Redbirds. In fact, the Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, and Brewers were within ten of each other on Runs Against.

With only a +35 Run Differential, the Brew Crew made fine use of their surprisingly meager offense, which finished 20th in MLB, seven slots and 29 runs behind St. Louis.

So how did Milwaukee’s pitching surprise? Well, it would be fair to say that fans and experts knew the potential was there, but that it would click on all cylinders was a bit surprising. The question is whether the team will have to add to the group, due to lack of depth and an injury to a key component. They’ve already made a couple of moves; are more in store?

In 2016, the Brewers fielded the following six starters for all but four games. They were (with ERAs): Jimmy Nelson (4.62); Zach Davies (3.97); Chase Anderson (4.39, remember this one!); Wily Peralta (4.86); Junior Guerra (2.81); and Matt Garza (4.51).

And now 2017: Davies (about the same, at 3.90); Jimmy Nelson (3,49, nice!); Matt Garza (4.94);
Brent Suter (3.42, 14 starts); Junior Guerra (5.12, and only 14 starts); and a smattering of others.

Oh, did I forget Chase Anderson? I’m sorry — a 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 4.1 WAR, in only 141 innings. WOW!

Anderson had a very strange prospect life. He was drafted three separate times, in the 42nd, 40th and 9th rounds. The last time, as a college player, was with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he made his MLB debut eight years after he was first drafted. So the fact that he is maturing at age 30 is perhaps not all that surprising. Whatever it is, he certainly figured it out last year.

The biggest question for this rotation, though, is, who will lead and who will support? Davies shows that he’s the most consistent of them all, varying nary a lick in ERA+ over two and a quarter seasons. Anderson is all full of what-if upside.

The big strapping Nelson, coming off September shoulder surgery and with no throwing expected til at least spring training, is a quality MLB pitcher but 2017 was his only true very good season, showing strikeout stuff for the first time in the bigs, over 10 per nine IP versus nothing above the 7s in prior years.

Regardless, those are the three horses, but with Nelson’s timing unknown, it’s really only two for sure. Garza is gone (for which I’m sure the Brewers are breathing a sigh of relief, $50M later), so that raises the question of where the other innings will come from.

Guerra may be there again, as our colleagues writing for ReviewingTheBrew indicate. And after Guerra, it really depends who you ask.

Enter Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo, recent free agent signings who have proven, in different ways and at different times, that they can be effective starters. Both have suffered from high expectations career due to their stuff, but each has had significant ups and downs. Still, to make up for Nelson’s absence and in case no other signings are realized, the team could have done a lot worse to secure the back end.

Beyond that? The two most likely culprits are Brandon Woodruff and Brent Suter. Woodruff, the righty, drafted in 2014, had a few starts in the majors last year and Craig Counsell has indicated he’s in the mix for 2018. Suter, the lefty from Harvard who doesn’t throw particularly hard, surprised with a 3.45 ERA in 14 starts.

And then even beyond that? it’s anyone’s guess. Burnes was lights out in the minors even though he wasn’t drafted (as a college prospect) til 2016. But later in 2018 he might get a shot. Wilkerson is 28, and while he may not have the upside of young Luis Ortiz, he’s closer to stepping in. And Taylor Jungmann. ‘Nuff said.

All this is to say that the Brewers continue to look on the free agent market to try to build on the strong promise that the Anderson-Davies tandem (along with Nelson, when he returns) provides. They’ve been linked to such names as Alex Cobb and Jake Arietta, and perhaps with Garza’s deal behind them and how well they performed last year, ownership will take the plunge.

For now, though, they’re a B- on the starting five, given the uncertainty of how the bottom of the rotation will perform. But with the signings of Chacin and Gallardo, I think they’re ensured a fair amount of depth in case of calamity, so I’d give them a B+ on that front.

The Cincinnati Reds and the once former GM of the St. Louis Cardinals would love to find the top of the NL-Central, but will they?

Anticipated Starters: Anthony DeSclafani, Homer Bailey, Luis Castillo, Brandon Finnegan, Robert Stephenson
In the Wings: Sal Romano, Jackson Stephens, Rookie Davis (hip surgery), Tyler Mahle

Well, wow. I’m not really sure what to say. This is one big hot mess.

Oh, I’m not knocking any individual pitchers. No disrespect intended. It’s just that when you add the parts, they comprise maybe two-thirds of a reasonable MLB rotation. There’s just something wrong with everyone, in some way or another.

Take DeSclafani as an example. He was really rounding into the pitcher the Reds expected of him during 2016, when he had a two-month hiatus from an oblique injury. Then, alas, injury sidelined him for all of 2017.

Then Bailey. He was a first rounder with high promise…in 2004! Since then, he’s tried to live up to his lofty promise. But ultimately, Bailey has proven a .500 pitcher with a career 4-ish ERA, good enough for a number three or four starter on an average team but nothing life shattering.

Luis Castillo has real live potential, with a strong showing in 2017, giving up only 64 hits in 89 innings and scoring 98 strikeouts. The Dominican may well be the real deal but to put it in perspective, he has about as many major-league innings as the St. Louis Cardinals’ Luke Weaver, but instead of having a CMart, Wacha, and even a Wainwright surrounding him, he has a…well, a DeSclafani and Bailey.

From there, we have Brandon Finnegan, a lefty sidelined for most of 2017; Robert Stephenson, another first-rounder who hasn’t even been that consistently great in the minors and definitely hasn’t touched great in the majors; and Sal Romano, another maybe-prospect and a project in the making. Young Tyler Mahle, great at AA last year, could get a shot too at one point this year.

I’m not going to go into the wings in any great depth, because while there’s some future hope — Tyler Mahle, for instance, who’s far too far away to make a difference for a year or two — this is just a really, really, really…well, you get the idea. The starting rotation would at the very best get a D+ and the depth, being hugely generous, a C. In other words, there’s no there there.

Do the St. Louis Cardinals have the best pitching rotation?

The St. Louis Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers all have capable rotations in different ways.

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While the St. Louis Cardinals start the season a tad short of the Cubs, they have more in reserve if things go awry. The Brewers would probably match up pretty well if Nelson weren’t in question, but his delayed schedule upsets both the starting five and the reservoir of replacements. The Pirates are okay if they don’t lose Cole, while the Reds just plain stink.

The bunching at the top means a few different things.

First, that one or more teams could push the others by free agent signings or trades before the start of the season. Grabbing an Arrieta or  Cobb or trading for a Chris Archer could tilt the balance considerably for one of these teams. And in the case of the Pirates, dealing away Cole could push them far behind.

Second, that each team’s potential to out-compete their foes will turn on whether their starters can live up to their reputations, projections, and promise. That analysis may favor the Cubs up front. On the other hand, if injuries or unexpectedly poor performances arise, the St. Louis Cardinals could be best posed to withstand the challenges.

Beyond that, what the closeness of the rotations – especially for the Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, and Brewers – may mean is that the other aspects of these good teams, beyond the rotations, could be the major difference between them.

Next: Cardinal resolutions

All things being equal for the starters, it may well turn on the offenses and bullpens to dictate the outcome of the Central in 2018.