St. Louis Cardinals: A blockbuster, one-stop-shop in Seattle

The St. Louis Cardinals can grab three great wins from the Mariners.

From a St. Louis perspective, the Mariners have exactly what you need. Starting pitching help? Say hello, James Paxton. A big bat? Kyle Seager is waiting. A power arm in the bullpen? Edwin Diaz and his flamethrower are here to see you.

Now, I understand that those are probably the Mariners’ three best players and it seems pretty stupid to trade your three best players and then still expect to win.

However, I would argue that Seattle can downsize significantly by trading those three players while shedding Kyle Seager’s $100-million contract and giving themselves some of the payroll flexibility that Robinson Cano’s monster deal took away from them.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, you get every player piece that you need in one theoretical trade. Paxton comes entering his age-30 season with three more years of control, Seager (also 30) still has four more guaranteed years and a team option on his 2015 extension and Diaz, after moonwalking his way onto the scene in 2016, is entering just his age-24 season with four more years of team control.

The St. Louis Cardinals would be getting a remarkable amount of value from these three players, so you can sure bet they would need to give up quite a haul in return.

The St. Louis Cardinals would need to give a good package to receive the asking price.

The first piece heading back to Seattle has to be Stephen Piscotty. The Cardinals’ incumbent right fielder was signed to a team-friendly extension this past offseason, keeping him under team control through 2022 for an average annual value of just $5.58 million.

Although coming off of a down year, Piscotty has known offensive upside (121 WRC+ over 905 PA in 2015 & 2016) combined with being a +8 DRS in 2,127.2 right field innings. He’s a young, valuable, controllable player with established upside and talent; just the kind of player who Seattle has signaled they are looking for.

Next up in the return package going back to Seattle, along with Piscotty, are Luke Weaver and Dakota Hudson.

I like Weaver and have championed Hudson as a potential power-arm out of the bullpen in 2018, but there needs to be some significant pitching talent gong back to the Mariners in this trade.

Both players have a full six years of team control entering 2018 and both have a lot of upside.

Weaver put together an outstanding 2017 season that featured a 2.93 xFIP and 1.4 fWAR in a mere 60.1 IP, leaving many believing that he can not lonely be serviceable at the MLB level, but thrive and potentially be a top line starter.

Dakota Hudson flew his way threw the minor leagues in 2017, finishing in Triple-A just one year after being drafted in the 1st round out of Mississippi State. The 23-year-old was somewhat aggressively pushed to Double-A right out of the gate this past season, but he thrived with the challenging assignment posting a 2.53 ERA and 9.6 K/9 in 114 electric innings before being promoted to Triple-A Memphis.

The Hudson train slowed a bit in Memphis, as his K/9 dropped to 6.1 and his ERA ballooned to 4.42 in 38.2 IP, but he’ll be ready to roll at that level to begin 2018 and could possibly be ready for a call-up as early as July.

The Mississippi State right-hander possesses a lively arm and a repertoire that features a power sinker, hard slider and developing change-up that make him either a 3rd-4th starter candidate or a late inning power reliever candidate in the future.

Both Weaver and Hudson are young and have years of control, combined with upside, cost flexibility, and both are either MLB-ready or feasibly within a year of being MLB-ready. And, to round out the return package to Seattle will be Harrison Bader and Jedd Gyorko.

Bader comes, like Weaver and Hudson, with 6 years of control going forward and plenty of potential to boot. The University of Florida product slugged 20 HR’s and .469 in 465 Triple-A at bats this past season, and combined that with the ability to play all three outfield positions defensively and 15 stolen bases as well.

The power-speed-defense combination gives Bader 5-tool upside and he showed it in brief flashes over 32 games at the Major League level in 2017. He could be reasonably counted on to make a Major League opening day roster in 2018 and could prove to be a valuable piece for Seattle.

Gyorko comes with defensive versatility and three more years of team control at a highly reasonable $5.91 million per year. He can slot right into the hole left by Kyle Seager’s departure in this trade for Seattle.

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Mariners give a lot and get a lot in this deal.

So, the final trade ends up being as follows:

To St. Louis: Kyle Seager, James Paxton, Edwin Diaz

To Seattle: Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko, Harrison Bader, Dakota Hudson, Luke Weaver

I’ve talked way too much about the Mariners’ point of view on this deal, so let’s talk abut the perspective of the St. Louis Cardinals. Like I said earlier, this trade is everything you could need this offseason.

Paxton is a power-armed 29-year-old left-handed starter entering his 4th full Major League season after being drafted in 2010. Dealing with health problems his whole career, there is serious injury risk here than just can’t be ignored, but I’m willing to take a risk that I believe will pay off in a big way.

The Canadian posted a 2.98 ERA, 2.61 FIP and whopping 4.6 fWAR last season in just 136 IP, highlighted by 10.4 K/9, a 4.7% walk rate and a career low 0.6 HR/9. Although he hasn’t pitched more than that 136 inning total in a full season at the Major League level, Steamer still projects a terrific 2018 season from the big lefty, forecasting a 3.53 ERA and 3.8 fWAR in 176 innings pitched.

The St. Louis Cardinals haven’t had a front line left-handed starter in ages – I honestly can’t remember the last one – and Paxton would certainly fill that role along with whatever hole is in the starting rotation.

In addition to Paxton, Kyle Seager is one of the most underrated players in all of baseball. In six extremely productive MLB seasons, Corey’s brother has posted a sterling total of 26.5 fWAR, almost silently averaging 4.4 fWAR per season.

If you’re looking for that ‘impact bat’ to put in the middle of the order, he certainly won’t be Giancarlo Stanton by any stretch of the imagination, but this is certainly an ‘impact bat.’ Seager’s 27 HR’s and 88 RBI’s in 2017 would have both led the Cardinals, and bear in mind that his 106 WRC+ is a career regression number in his age-29 season.

Steamer sees an offensive bounce back in 2018 on the back of a 34 point jump in OPS combined with Seager’s typically great defense, (37.7 career Fangraphs DEF value and a 2014 Gold Glove) and power numbers (projected 28 HR’s, 88 RBI’s and .206 ISO).

The Cardinals received a respectable 2.3 fWAR from the 3rd base position in 2017, but even a slight jump to 3.6 fWAR in 2018 would make a huge difference.

Rounding out the trio of new Cardinals is Edwin Diaz. The Puerto Rican flamethrower burst onto the scene in 2016 by striking out literally everyone in sight, (15.3 K/9) en route to 1.9 fWAR, 18 saves and a 1.88 xFIP in just 51 innings pitched. 2017 saw the youngster regress a bit, but Diaz still put up a more than respectable 12.2 K/9, 3.27 ERA and 1.0 fWAR.

His walk rate more than doubled in 2017 from 2.3 BB/9 in 2016 to 4.7 BB/9 last year, and that loss of control can be pointed to as reason for Diaz’s regression. The Puerto Rican connection between him and Yadier Molina, as shown in the WBC this past March, is extremely strong and I believe that one year under the tutelage of St. Louis’ 8-time Gold Glover will get Diaz right back to where he was in 2016.

Steamer also likes Diaz as a bit of a bounce back candidate in 2018, projecting him for a 3.20 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 1.5 fWAR and 32 saves in 65.0 IP. If the St. Louis Cardinals can get him, this is exactly the kind of power-arm they’re looking for in the 2018 bullpen.

More from Redbird Rants

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• Reflecting on the 2013 Cardinals’ top 30 prospects
• Cardinals: Here is Willson Contreras’ first message for St. Louis fans
• How do the St. Louis Cardinals stack up with Willson Contreras?
• Cardinals: The insane asking price the Athletics had for Sean Murphy

St. Louis would have 12 years of control between the three acquired players in this trade while sending 26 years of control among five players back to Seattle.

It’s certainly a blockbuster for both sides, but the Cardinals would be dealing from surplus in order to address holes on the team while Seattle would be re-tooling for the near future while shedding some payroll in the form of Kyle Seager’s (still highly affordable) contract.

Does this trade solve every single one of the St. Louis Cardinals’ problems? No, Mike Matheny is still behind the bench, starting pitching still looks thin, there are more arms needed in the bullpen and Randal Grichuk would now be the incumbent right fielder.

However, this knocks out three needs in one trade while not remotely decimating the minor league system and markedly making the St. Louis Cardinals better in 2018.

Next: Cardinals discussing a Colome trade

It’s not meant to be a be-all, end-all, it’s just one hell of a start. Thanks for reading!