St. Louis Cardinals: An Innovative Approach to Fixing the Bullpen

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ST. LOUIS, MO – MAY 16: Reliever Brett Cecil /

Approaches to fixing the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen are something the organization needs to consider this offseason.

The rumor mill is filled with potential fixes to the back end of the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. Indeed, various writers on this site advocate for and against big free agent closers such as Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Addison Reed, and Juan Nicasio.

There are certainly merits for and against each of these veteran relievers.

Some of the writers here want to pass on these veterans in favor of letting young studs like Sandy Alcantara throw 1,000-mile per hour missiles in the late innings next year. Others advocate for signing one or two of these bullpen pieces.

I write to offer you a slightly different perspective: the St. Louis Cardinals should sign all four relievers.

In order to understand my theory, one must understand two reasons underlying my approach. First, I was inspired, as the St. Louis Cardinals should be, by the cunning tactics of Yankee GM Brian Cashman. Yes, just a couple years ago, Cashman flipped low-level prospects for Aroldis Chapman and also signed Andrew Miller to a four year, thirty-six million dollar deal.

When the Yankees went into sell mode, Cashman intelligently sold off two of the three heads of his late-inning hydra to the Cubs and Indians, respectively. What did the Yankees net in return?

The Yankees netted some of the top prospects in baseball including Adam Warren, Gleyber Torres, Billy Mckinney, Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield. For this haul, the Yankees lost half a season of Chapman (who they then re-signed) and a couple years of Miller.

The moral of the story is that Cashman realized he could have one of the best bullpens in the league and that he could flip one of his many closers for highly touted position-player prospects. This approach worked, and it cost the Yankees little more than dollars.

The St. Louis Cardinals, meanwhile, are continuously touted as one of the most profitable teams in baseball. The team is always boasting its ability to one day flex its financial muscles to reassert dominance in the NL-Central. This team is also reluctant to part with prospects in trades.

Thus, the second position underlying my approach requires the St. Louis Cardinals to put their money where their mouth is.

The St. Louis Cardinals should sign all four of Nicasio, Reed, Davis, and Holland. These four late-inning monsters would give the Cardinals the best bullpen in the National League when you combine them with some combination of Matt Bowman, Tyler Lyons, Brett Cecil, and John Brebbia/John Gant/Sandy Alcantara.

In this article, I highlight the statistics and potential acquisition cost of each of the aforementioned relievers based on (1) prior earnings and age; (2) last season performance; (3) market research on comparable players and hometown discount if any; and (4) the opinions of other writers on this site.

At the end of this article, I am hopeful that you will agree that investing larger dollars in the bullpen will help advance this team towards the playoffs. If the move doesn’t work, the St. Louis Cardinals can attempt to flip these cost-controlled relievers (even if it means eating dollars) for prospects at the trade deadline.

Greg Holland is ready for his St. Louis Cardinals opus.

The St. Louis Cardinals must sign Greg Holland, as fellow writer and podcaster extraordinaire Christian May-Suzuki already suggested in an excellent expose on the merits of acquiring Greg Holland which you can check out here.

Suffice it to say that Holland is the second best arm available, after Wade Davis. Let me also remind you that Davis set Holland up when they were both in Kansas City (yes, they also had Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria – another loaded bullpen).

I do, however, want to highlight a couple of factors. While Holland touts a splendid 2.60 career ERA, that number is largely buoyed by last season’s ERA of 3.72 pitching in Colorado and his last pre-injury season in Kansas City (3.21).

The guy posted obnoxious numbers from 2011-2014 as the Kansas City closer. These freakish numbers made him one of the most dominant closers in baseball.

He still strikes out a ton of people with a career 11.9 K/9 rate and the guy has only given up 23 home runs in his entire 7-year MLB career. Seven of those came last year – which greatly inflates the number (thanks again Coors Field).

There is no question that Holland is a big-time arm, but the question is at what cost? There is some evidence of what Holland thinks of himself because he declined a $15 million player option with the Rockies.

This does not, however, mean that he will necessarily seek/receive $15 million AAV for his next deal. This simply means that he performed well enough to seek a longer-term deal, not in Colorado. Who could blame him?

The most Holland could possibly get in free agency is the Mark Melancon deal which was a then-record four-year, $62 million contract. Holland, however, will not get that deal because not enough contending teams need closers and his late-season meltdown with the Rockies and proximity to Tommy John surgery will surely provide a discount.

If Holland gets the coveted fourth year, I predict that he will be somewhere just above the Darren O’Day/Brett Cecil contract of four-years for $31 million. It may be difficult to get that fourth year.

My fellow writers, on average, have Holland netting a three-year, $33 million deal. That makes good sense to me, but we will round up to an even $12 million AAV to account for any bidding war that may occur with the Nationals.

Thus, the reasonable cost to acquire Greg Holland will be three-years, $36 million.

Wade Davis is one of the most dominant relievers in recent memory and needs to be on the St. Louis Cardinals.

I set up the conversation about Wade Davis with Greg Holland (which is ironic because Davis previously set up for Holland) because Holland provides a decent framework for Davis and his fit with the St. Louis Cardinals. Davis and Holland are basically the same age – both turning 32 this fall/winter.

Of course, there are other problems with Davis. First, Joe Maddon (who is as bad as Dusty Baker when it comes to the destruction of pitcher’s arms) ran Davis into the ground this postseason. This should not be a big problem, however, because Davis came up as a starter with the Rays.

Still, there may be some concern that this increased Davis’ injury risk. If you say risk, I say discount on the contract – but the St. Louis Cardinals will certainly factor this in.

Davis, like Holland, is only a year or two removed from complete dominance in Kansas City. Indeed, this past season with the small bears, he rocked a 2.30 ERA. He did give up six home runs, but his strikeouts per nine innings were the second highest of his career – that is a trend I really like.

There is no doubt that Davis would be the closer on this team if we could sign him, but what would it cost?

My fellow writers were all over the map on the prediction for the Davis acquisition cost. The proposed deals range from three years at $27 million to four years at $58 million (yes, the Melancon deal). The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. I predict that Davis will land a four-year, $50 million deal.

HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Addison Reed /

Addison Reed is a late-inning reliever with role versatility that would serve the St. Louis Cardinals very well.

Addison Reed should be a target for the St. Louis Cardinals as he is the youngest guy on this list – entering next season at age 29. For some reason, Addison Reed is also incredibly underrated.

The guy, simply stated, gets outs. He has a career 3.40 ERA, but the bulk of that ERA is inflated by his early years with the Chicago White Sox and Arizona. He has been much better in his latest seasons with the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox.

Reed brings a career 9.5 strikeouts per nine and he does not walk a ton of guys. However, Reed is prone to serving up the long ball at times. The market has never valued Reed as highly as he probably should be, and that should help the St. Louis Cardinals get a discount on the contract.

My fellow writers peg Reed at somewhere around four years and around $45-50 million. I think that assessment is largely based on his age.

I, for one, do not think he will get that much overall money. Reed, in my opinion, may not even get that fourth year because he is not as overly dominant as some of the other names on this list. I predict Reed will land a three-year, $30 million deal – just lower than the Holland deal.

ST. LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 26: Juan Nicasio /

Juan Nicasio succeeded in his short time with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Juan Nicasio has stated a desire to return to the St. Louis Cardinals. The team should welcome that desire with a discounted contract offer. After all, the team made the suspect move of acquiring Nicasio (now a free agent) for a middle infield prospect at a time when he would not be eligible for the postseason (a now moot point). Re-signing Nicasio would feel like a better return on that trade.

Nicasio also performed brilliantly for the St. Louis Cardinals. This converted starter reclaimed his career in Pittsburgh and he shined bright in St. Louis. Nicasio struck out 11 in his 11 innings for St. Louis and he threw gas doing it.

All of the writers here at Redbird Rants believe that Nicasio will only net a 2-year deal even though he is only 31 years old and can start and relieve.

That number is probably correct given the vast number of non-closer options available in the relief market. Thus, I predict that Nicasio will get a two-year deal with a team option for a third year. That two-year deal will come in at around $18 million with the team option at $12 million for the third year.

ST. LOUIS, MO – SEPTEMBER 29: Protesters unfurl a banner during a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium on September 29, 2017 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

What if the St. Louis Cardinals went all-in and picked them all?

The total cost for the St. Louis Cardinals to acquire four of the best arms on the free agent market would be $134 million over the next 2-4 years.

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That seems like a lot of money, and it is, but it immediately resolves this teams glaring weakness without sacrificing any prospects at all. Moreover, it allows those prospects to be used in full pursuit of a middle of the order bat that has been so bandied about.

The St. Louis Cardinals have the money to sign all four players, and they should. The fans deserve a dominant bullpen.

The trickledown effect of this monster bullpen is that it will also help keep our young starters fresh and limit their innings as necessary. Finally, if the season goes south, the Cardinals can flip these relievers for more prospects.

It is time for the Cardinals to start spending that money they receive from our 3 million plus fans coming to games every season. A monster bullpen can be built on four players for the same price it would cost to sign a guy like JD Martinez.

Next: Six Second Tier Relief Options

The team should make these moves. I posit that these moves are better than signing the (admittedly) cheaper second-tier options. The cheaper options do not make this team better, and would not be better than the current bullpen. What do you think?

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