St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk and Kyle Schwarber, a tale of two bangers

The St. Louis Cardinals have Randal Grichuk and the Chicago Cubs have Kyle Schwarber; they are eerily similar and eerily different.

The factors in the previous slide show the similarities in these outfielders for the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cubs, however, the similarities end there.

Even early on, scouts and journalists were concerned about how Schwarber, a catcher-then-outfielder, might fit in on the defensive side. Unlike Grichuk, he was not particularly adept in the field, and was, shall we say, rather plodding afoot.

Still, Schwarber appeared to put it all together offensively much faster than Grichuk.  In his brief minor-league stint spanning 2014-2015, Schwarber had a well-over-.400 OBP in around 600 plate appearances, matching his power and batting average in the .300s with a fine eye that drew almost 90 walks.

Not so much with Grich. As he bounced from minors to majors during the 2014-2016 seasons, Randal certainly showed the pop that was expected of him — but with extremely little discipline for the most part.

Oh, those strikeouts and oh, that absence of walks! By failing to learn how to lay off those pitches outside the strike zone — most notably the low, outside slider and the above-the-zone fastball — Grich couldn’t muster a consistent enough on-base to be taken as seriously as he might have.

His somewhat higher batting average of .276, sandwiched between two seasons thirty to forty points lower, allowed for a reasonable .329 OBP in 2015. Trouble was, his BAbip (batting average for balls in play) that year was a torrid .365, which even for a screaming line drive hitter like Grich, was likely unsustainable.

The difference between Schwarber and Grichuk was notable from the time Kyle hit the bigs. In his partial 2015 season, as he set the baseball world agog, he posted a 130 OPS+, despite a .246 batting average.

Why? Because Schwarber’s walk totals allowed him to post a very respectable .355 OBP. And his BAbip was a normal .293, leading some to wonder if the lower batting average was simply a blip. While he missed the 2016 regular season due to injury, his ridiculous playoff performance suggested Superman incarnate.

But then 2017 arrived, and for both Grich and Schwarbs, the results were revealing indeed.

For Randal, the current season started out WYSIWYG — what you see is what you get.  For the first half, he was powering well enough but with only 16 walks, producing a below-.700 OPS.

The second half, however, has shown a bit of a turn, just not on the selectivity side. A batting average of about fifty points higher than normal has produced a nice OPS, despite — and yes, when you read this, rest assured it’s not a misprint — six walks, in only about 140 at bats.

Schwarber, too, hit the ground jogging instead of running this year. He couldn’t keep his BA over even the Mendoza line of .200 for the first couple months, leading to a demotion to AAA to figure things out.

But figure them out he has. While he has not shown the lofty averages he demonstrated in the minors, again his batting eye has led to a fine complement of on-base and slugging skills after his return. From June to August, he has not had an OPS of less than .850.

The St. Louis Cardinals have Randal Grichuk and the Chicago Cubs have Kyle Schwarber; what happens to each in his respective club is yet to be seen.

So that’s the history. The most significant question in comparing these two is what comes next, and how to assess their respective worth to their big-league teams. Will the St. Louis Cardinals have a plan for Grichuk for the future? Will the Cubs cut ties with Schwarber?

For Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals management has now seen parts of four years in the Show. They know several things that can be slotted into the “fairly sure” category.

One, that he can hit with tremendous bat velocity and go yard at a great clip.

Two, that he can slot into a major-league outfield with zero problem, as his range and arm can readily fill any of three positions at an average or above level.

But what they also know is that there has been zero change in his ability to lay off certain balls outside the strike zone. None. No change. Even with his uptick in average the last couple months, which we hope he can retain (but have doubt about), he has once again proven unable to avoid chasing in certain zones, and walks almost not at all.

That means the St. Louis Cardinals most likely recognize they have a high-power, high-strikeout, fleet afoot outfielder who isn’t dependable enough at the plate to slot into any batting order spot above the six hole.

But can they afford that luxury when the team has so many other outfield options, and has few proven difference-makers in the lineup that can sustain a substantial OPS?

To answer that question, we return to Schwarber. He appears to have returned to his capable offensive role, with a somewhat modest average offset by his ability to take walks.

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More importantly, he occupies a role on a team that has two perennial MVP candidates, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, along with other significant lineup pieces. To find a place for Schwarber in a lineup like that, the risk is lower than it is for the Cards in making room for Grichuk.

Chicago’s challenge with Schwarber is far more on the defensive side. While he’s made some isolated nice plays, he remains a clear liability in the field (a -1.1 dWAR for 2017 bears that out).

The Cubs’ choice, then, is not likely going to be made on the basis of a temporary offensive blip this year, but rather on whether his batting potential outweighs the known risk when he takes the field.

The Cards and Cubs have very interesting choices when it comes to these two players. Each has flaws that require their respective team to weigh the costs and benefits of their continued presence. A lot of that has to do with the surrounding complement of players.

In the case of the Cubs, I would say that it’s still on balance likely worth it to stick Kyle in left field, and, like the late days of Matt Holliday‘s career, hope for the best and find suitable late-inning replacements.

Next: The impact of coaching

For the Cards, the Grichuk question, given the shortage of mid-lineup difference-makers, remains a much closer call. With the team being remade and so many moving outfield parts, whether Randal stays or goes at this point seems a murky proposition.