St. Louis Cardinals: Two of our writers debate Kolten Wong

The St. Louis Cardinals have an interesting decision to make coming up regarding second baseman Kolten Wong.

Should the St. Louis Cardinals try to trade Kolten Wong? And if so, what is a good price tag to give him?  There is a lot that goes into answering both of those questions.

With Wong being a former first-round selection by the St. Louis Cardinals out of the University of Hawaii, there is still the hope of him reaching the expectations he once held. On the other hand, his recent stints on the DL could also cause a problem.

Wong has certainly been the subject many discussions by St. Louis Cardinals fans. In fact, he has been discussed more than just about any other player on the roster. He has great potential that has sometimes been realized, sometimes not, and with the way he’s eaten up miles on the Interstate-55 St. Louis-to-Memphis Shuttle, Wong’s future with the Redbirds has been debated hotly and frequently. -LL

The best way to come to a conclusion to this problem is to talk it out.  That is exactly what fellow Redbird Rants writer Larry Levin and I did.  We messaged back and forth arguing both sides of how much Wong is actually worth.

There was even a discussion of how to introduce this slideshow.  So, as to keep peace in the Redbird Rants clubhouse, we both wrote parts of this intro. To give credit where credit is due, if an “LL” follows a paragraph, it is brought to you by Larry.

Believe it or not, sometimes our contributors have very different perspectives on the same issue. The way I see it, Wong holds limited market and on-the-field value, while Larry holds out more hope that there’s solid potential and value for a trade.  -LL

So, as any spirited sports minds would do, we took to the stats to make our points, to argue, and to get as close to an answer as there can be in sports.  The Wong conundrum is certainly something to keep an eye on as the trade deadline draws ever closer.

It’s not surprising then that Larry and I have some pretty substantial disagreement about the prospects for Wong both on the team and on the open market.  The following slideshow presents both sides in a point-counterpoint format, and of course we expect Redbird Rants fans to have their own potent, and maybe equally fiery, views on the matter. We would love to hear your thoughts as well! Enjoy! -LL

Larry

Thanks, Trevor. I know that Wong’s career has been up and down so far, but there’s an awful lot that other teams should like about the guy.  True, it hasn’t helped in the past that manager Mike Matheny has given him a quick hook so often, or that he’s ridden the Memphis shuttle at the first sign of weak performance.But this year it seemed that the club was adamant about Wong’s mostly daily play, and it has shown on the field. You mentioned his batting average being higher, but there are other strongly-encouraging signs as well.

He’s pounded eighteen extra-base hits through just third of a season, his OBP is pushing .400, and and maybe more importantly, he’s keeping his strikeouts down with a selective eye. Don’t you think those elements make him a desirable piece for a team looking for an everyday second baseman?

Trevor

Larry, you make very good points about his ability to get on base.  I will concede to you that the OBP can be an enticing number, but look at what is behind it.  As I mentioned before he is hitting .298, which is the base number.  Now add in his nineteen walks… but the thing about his walks is that eight of them are intentional.

He was gifted free passes, so really he has only worked eleven walks this season.  The intentional walk number cannot be counted on from Wong; before this season he had only been intentionally walked seven times total.  When a player has struck out twenty-five times in a season and worked fewer than a dozen walks, that OBP becomes a less attractive number.

And I feel the need to bring up Wong’s injury again.  It lingered and put him back on the DL.  Even if he is healthy and playing great at the trade deadline, that is a huge question mark that teams will have: Is Wong going to be 100 percent, and is his durability there?

The second injury in a short time period really does appear to cut off the rest of what I would summarize as little trade value that he had before.  The time to sell him would have been the off-season, but the St. Louis Cardinals waited and it didn’t pan out.

Larry

Trevor, even without the intentional walks, Wong’s still at a .333 OBP, which exceeds his performance for any season to date. And with the IBBs, he gets on base in front of a Cardinal pitching corps that boasts some pretty decent bats, with Mike Leake, Adam Wainwright, and Carlos Martinez all able to punish the choice to put Wong on.

But your trade conclusion I must disagree with. The injury that Kolten just had, a strained right triceps, is unrelated to his prior injury profile, and isn’t one, absent a serious tear (which there’s no indication of so far) that would give trading partners pause. Do they want to see him healthy prior to a deal? Sure, and we’ll find out about that health soon enough.

Once he’s off the DL, though, Wong presents a great trade opportunity for a team in need of starting 2B help with better-than-average offense this year (OPS+ at 123), a touch of speed, and the potential of brilliant defense.

His contract makes him extremely marketable — under $1.5 million left for this year and an AAV of $7 million for the next three years, which are in the wheelhouse of the peak 27-29 age range.

There are several ways that the Cards could go in assessing a Wong trade: (1) If they find a shortstop and slide Diaz to second; (2) If they find a third baseman and move Gyorko over; or (3) (my least favorite) if they shift Carp back to either 2B or 3B upon finding a first base option. With a cost-controlled Wong in a deal, it alleviates a bit of pressure on Mo to surrender too many key prospects

Trevor

Larry, I see it irrelevant that the injuries are unrelated.  It will be worrisome to teams that there were back-to-back injuries in general.  A team will not want to trade for an everyday 2B, only to have him get injured again.  The back-to-back injuries will make other teams question his durability.  That is a huge issue for him in the trade market.

You talk about Wong being on base in front of pitchers who hit well, but that is not a reason to add to his trade value.  He will become a completely stranded runner if the gets intentionally walked in front of a pitching corps that can’t hit.  Which is a lot of them.  So with no guarantee of him being able to move over (unless he gets sent to the AL) then he can IBB all he wants and it won’t matter.

While Wong has been a great fielder in the past, posting an exceptional 4.5 UZR last season, he is not showing up with the leather this year.  This year he has a UZR of -2.5.

I know he is young but he has taken steps backward this year.  Which happens on the way up. But there is not a confidence to guarantee the glove will continue to progress.  Going from a fielding percentage of .980 in 2016 to .964 in 2017 doesn’t help his case for trade.

The biggest problem facing Wong is that his year this is year is the best of his career.  He has a body of work so far that says this is not something other teams can expect.  He has not proven himself to be a reliable everyday 2B throughout his total career.

While this year he may be starting to, he is not yet established.  That is keeping his price tag low, too low for the St. Louis Cardinals to find any real value to get in return from another team.

Larry

I agree that a team will want to see this particular injury healed, but that should happen soon. We’ll just have to see what the jury of GM opinion may say once that occurs.

If you don’t like my previous argument about Wong’s eighth-place hitting, maybe you’ll like this one: His OPS is a stunning .964 from that slot this season, and, if you prefer to keep the IBBs out of it (he’s had six from that spot), a stunning .529 SLG in the eight hole. So pitchers or not, Wong’s value in that order position looks to have arrived at a major-league level with a vengeance.

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As for this being his best year, I would say that he’s showing up with that arc right on schedule. He’s 26 and he has a career WAR over 6. And pure stats aside, he has overcome several obstacles that may have impeded his confidence and his performance. First was the Memphis shuttle that Mo had to effect because of Mike Matheny’s tendency to give Kolten the quick yank.

But perhaps more importantly, there appears to be an adjustment at the plate that is translating to more success. Several batting gurus indicated that with his previous, low hand position, it seemed unlikely for Wong to get around on the ball with the quickness required to handle big-league fastballs. Having raised the hands, the consequent time-to-the-ball seems to have improved considerably, and the visual evidence of his ropes to right field should be enticing to prospective trade partners.

Next: Time To Upgrade Starting Pitching