St. Louis Cardinals: Five story lines for the Cardinals in the weeks ahead

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Apr 11, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; A overall view of Busch Stadium before a game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

For some reason, consistent baseball is something to which the St. Louis Cardinals seem allergic. As weird as that sounds, it’s the simple truth.

From Yadier Molina being thrown out by a mile while trying to score on a passed ball, to Carlos Martinez failing to get a win after throwing nine innings of shutout baseball, there have been numerous head scratching moments in only forty-four games for the St. Louis Cardinals.

There have been promising moments. Matt Carpenter homered in three straight games, Mike Leake is poised to win the NL Cy Young, and the glimmer of Magneuris Sierra.

The negatives have still outweighed the positives. A stretch of dominant starting pitching during the last week couldn’t even help the Cardinals who sit at a 23-22 record. Jon Heyman, a top MLB writer, even said the St. Louis Cardinals have the best rotation in the MLB at the moment.

#STLCards rotation is easily best in MLB right now (wacha, c-mart, lynn, leake, waino). they are a bigger threat than given credit for.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) May 26, 2017

The inconsistent offense, shaky bullpen, and/or managerial decisions are all reasonable factors for the roller coaster start. Beginning the season 3-9 and then rattling off eight-of-nine, the Cardinals seemed ready to break out of mediocrity.

Except that didn’t happen and the St. Louis Cardinals seem to be back at square one. Dating back to last year the Cardinals have played sloppy baseball and veered away from what some people would call the ‘Cardinal Way.’

So, what is to come for the St. Louis Cardinals? Can they right the ship in the weeks ahead? Will they make changes to have a more consistent offense? Will management make changes to positively affect the bullpen? AND, will Matheny make smarter decisions as manager?

All of these questions should and will lead to many, many things about which to write. Pundits will likely be abundant in the coming weeks with articles galore either in favor of or against the St. Louis Cardinals. Cardinals Nation would be wise to consider what is to come.

Putting everything aside, therefore, let’s look at some possible Cardinals storylines in the weeks ahead.

Apr 19, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Dexter Fowler (center) celebrates with teammates Randal Grichuk (left) and Stephen Piscotty (right) after the Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports /

1) Expect St. Louis Cardinals lineup shifts led by Dexter Fowler possibly moving down

A lineup that was supposed to heavily rely on Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler is mostly being carried by Jedd Gyorko. Not many people, including Gyorko, would have guessed he would be the St. Louis Cardinals most dependable hitter. It goes to show the lack of star power the Cardinals have in their lineup.

Carpenter is batting .231, which isn’t great, but he has a .373 OBP due to an eye-popping thirty-three walks. Fowler, on the other hand, is barely over the Mendoza line with a .208 average and a pathetic .302 OBP. The hard time adjusting to a new city or the heel and shoulder injuries, whatever it is, Fowler has not lived up to his $82 million contract.

Fowler hasn’t looked comfortable at the plate at times, and manager Mike Matheny has made it clear that tweaks in the lineup could be beneficial for the team. It’s already been done with Aledmys Diaz moving down to the 6th spot so other small changes could be looming.

Bernie Miklasz, a writer for 101sports.com, disagrees with a Fowler lineup change and said it would be a major misstep for Matheny to move him out of the lead off spot. He cited that Matheny was faithful to players like Allen Craig and Matt Holliday even when they struggled mightily. Additionally, Fowler has a proven track record of being one of the top lead off hitters in the game.

I understand Miklasz’ stance, but at the same time the lineup is struggling to score so nothing can hurt, right?

The two hole has been a revolving door for the St. Louis Cardinals, too. What started with Diaz switched to Stephen Piscotty with Greg Garcia and Tommy Pham also getting at-bats in that spot.

It’s almost June and the Cardinals are still working on a productive lineup combination. Better late than never I guess.

May 2, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Trevor Rosenthal (44) pitches during the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

2) Trevor Rosenthal could replace Seung-hwan Oh as the St. Louis cardinals closer

Almost a complete flip flop of last year, 2017 has Trevor Rosenthal looking like the more dominant pitcher compared to this year’s ineffective Seung-hwan Oh.

In 17.1 innings, Rosenthal carries a 2.60 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and twenty-nine strikeouts (15.1 K/9) compared to twenty-three innings for Oh posting a 3.13 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, and twenty strikeouts (7.8 K/9). Oh has given up twenty-three hits in twenty-three innings to go along with ten walks. The command for him isn’t there this year and he’s not generating as many swing and misses.

Digging deeper, Fangraphs shows that hitters are seeing the ball better against Oh and are capitalizing on pitches in the zone. Last year Oh generated 18% swing and misses on strikes, which was well above the league average, whereas this year he has regressed to only 12.7% swing and misses on strikes. The dominance isn’t there, and it’s time for Rosenthal to regain his closer status.

On the flip side, the velocity for Rosenthal has returned and his control has been near razor-sharp. The 2015 Rosenthal has come out of hibernation, posting the highest K% in his career at 43.3%, (yes he is almost striking out half of the batters he faces). Rosenthal has been untouchable at times this season.

Fourth all-time in St. Louis Cardinals saves with 113, it’s time for Rosenthal to take over the ninth inning responsibilities due to Oh’s inability to close out games effectively. This move would also free up Oh to pitch more than one inning, which both he and Matheny tend to like.

May 25, 2016; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny pays a visit to the mound to speak with relief pitcher Jonathan Broxton (30) during the seventh inning against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. The Cubs won the game 9-8. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports /

3) St. Louis Cardinals bullpen shakeup led by DFAing Jonathan Broxton and Miguel Socolovich

The St. Louis Cardinals have four relievers with ERAs of 5.00 or higher. If that doesn’t scream ugly than I don’t know what does. The relievers are Kevin Siegrist (5.00), Brett Cecil (5.06), Jonathan Broxton (6.28), and Miguel Socolovich (8.68). Sheesh.

It’s hard to win when the bullpen can’t hold a lead. Facts.

Aside from Rosenthal, and maybe ground ball specialist Matt Bowman, there is little confidence in any other reliever. A handful of guys have a hard time getting through a full inning without surrendering a couple of runs.

Broxton is likely the leader in the clubhouse of being ineffective with his gaudy 2.023 WHIP. Fans groan when he enters the ballgame no matter the circumstance. Any reliever at his age and inability to get outs is likely looking for a job. But nope, not for Broxton who safely has a role with the Redbirds.

The front office’s stubbornness to swallow his remaining $3.75 million is not a good excuse. The players that give the team the best chance to win need to be on the 25-man roster. Plain and simple.

Which leads me to question the demotion of Sam Tuivailala yet Socolovich remains on the roster because he is out of minor league options. Tuivailala is by no means a dominant reliever like Rosenthal, but he proved he can hang in the big leagues and has been more effective than Socolovich so why not say good-bye to Socolovich?

To end, it’s hard to know which reliever should have which role, but a bullpen shakeup is necessary. Whether it’s bringing up minor league guys or acquiring external help, something needs to be done. The bullpen cannot continue to spoil quality starts.

May 2, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong (16) hits a one run single off of Milwaukee Brewers relief pitcher Jacob Barnes (not pictured) during the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

4) Can Kolten Wong sustain his early season St. Louis Cardinals success at the plate?

Kolten Wong hasn’t lived up to the five-year, $25.5 million contract he signed before the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals season. After his strong rookie season, Wong hasn’t been able to play at that level.

He has been criticized for letting errors in the field affect him at the plate. His mental fortitude was constantly in question and it finally caught up to him in 2016 as he batted .240 with only nineteen XBHs and twenty-three RBIs. A somewhat waste of a season for the Flyin’ Hawaiian.

In 2017, Wong was ready to carve out a new role and put everything behind him. And he’s done that so far. Mostly batting at the bottom of the lineup, Wong is slashing at .278/.378/.414 with one HR, eleven 2Bs, and sixteen RBIs.

He already has more doubles than last year and is fast approaching his RBI total. Wong has quietly produced no matter where he is in the lineup.

His consistency may be reason to believe he could move up in the order due to the struggles of Aledmys Diaz and Dexter Fowler. His power may have leveled off, but Wong is still a good contact hitter who can add speed on the base paths.

Apr 6, 2017; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (4) waits in the batters circle during the first inning of a game against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports /

5) Can the St. Louis Cardinals continue to thrive on the road?

These last two seasons have been anomalies for the St. Louis Cardinals and their fans. Over the last five years (and beyond), Busch Stadium has become a haven for winning; series sweeps or series wins were almost guaranteed. No more guarantees anymore and a dramatic shift in 2016 showed the St. Louis Cardinals have struggled to play consistent baseball at home.

Here is a look at the St. Louis Cardinals home/away records in previous years:

2012 — Home: 50-31, Away: 38-43
2013 — Home: 54-27, Away: 43-38
2014 — Home: 51-30, Away: 39-42
2015 — Home: 55-26, Away: 45-36
2016 — Home: 38-43, Away: 48-33
2017 — Home: 12-13, Away: 11-9

In all sports it’s important to defend home court, and the St. Louis Cardinals took pride in that, until the last two seasons. Dominance has turned into lackadaisical play. It’s hard to pinpoint the cause of this downturn, but fans have become accustomed to the trend that is already apparent this year.

The bright spot is that the St. Louis Cardinals have picked up the slack on the road. For some reason playing on the road hasn’t phased the Redbirds, which is a good thing.

If the St. Louis Cardinals want to be playing playoff baseball in October they must win more games at home. Busch Stadium is packed more times than not, so why not put on a show?

Next: A Plan From Within To Save the Bullpen

The St. Louis Cardinals have no doubt been frustrating to watch since 2016 with small flashes of hope. Yet the Cardinals were still a game away from making the playoffs last year. The frustration and complaints are understandable and ongoing because fans know the potential is there.

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