St. Louis Cardinals: A look ahead to close out April

The St. Louis Cardinals currently sit one game behind .500-ball at a record of 9-10. Will the remaining schedule for April prove favorable?

The St. Louis Cardinals limped out of the gate of Spring Training after having a better spring than they typically post. In the limping, fans worried and anxieties were raised. Then entered a stretch facing the Pittsburgh Pirates and the then-surging Milwaukee Brewers. The Cardinals swept the Pirates and won the series with the Brewers surprising fan (me for sure).

Now the idea is to keep the momentum moving in the upward direction. The idea is to continue to support the great starting pitching. The idea is to continue to find ways of generating offense and ways of bringing in ducks on the pond. And the idea is to patch and repair the bruised bullpen.

Before looking ahead, let’s take a moment to look back at the series that were. Hang in there as I go through these painful beginnings as a piece of reminder to us.

The St. Louis Cardinals opened the season at home facing the media darling Cubs. The Cardinals actually came out of the gate well behind their newly-minted ace, Carlos Martinez, and took the first game.

Then, then the Cardinals started their downward path and lost the next two games against the Cubs. During the Cubs series, the offense amassed nine runs across the three-game set (keep an eye on these numbers).

The second series of the season was against the Reds wherein the Birds lost two-of-three. In this series, the St. Louis Cardinals were blanked in the score column in the first and last game but erupted against Bronson Arroyo for a ten spot; the Cardinals scored a total, therefore, of ten runs in the three-game set.

The third series of the season had the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Washington Nationals. Sadly, the nation’s capital was not welcoming ground as the Cards dropped the first two games against the Nationals. The offense showed its back-and-forth mentality yet again plating nine runs across the two losses and six runs in the finale wherein the Birds won.

The fourth series of the season brought the St. Louis Cardinals into a reunion with Matt Holliday in the New York. The reunion might have been nice but the outcome of the three-game set was anything but nice: the Cardinals’ first sweep of the season on the losing side of things. In the series, the offense started its decline and only managed to score eight runs across the three games.

Limping back to St. Louis, the Cardinals hosted the Pirates who were flying in off of a sweep of the Cubs. By all indications, the Pirates should have swept into St. Louis and left with another victory. The Cardinals had other plans.

In the fifth series of the season, the St. Louis Cardinals placed their names in the record books by sweeping the Pirates in three games with each game ending in the same score: 2-1. If you are keeping score at home, this means that the offense was only able to pull together six runs in three games.

The most recent series- the sixth of the season- took the Cardinals to Milwaukee to face the Brewers who had been doing well on the season. The Cardinals dropped the first game of the series but came roaring back to take the next three to secure their second series win. In the series, the offense plated twenty-one runs across four games.

To-date, the Cardinals offense has plated nine runs, ten runs, nine runs, eight runs, six runs, and twenty-one runs in their respective series. Certainly the twenty-one runs will get it done in a series but the six, eight, and nine leave much to be desired.

Let’s look forward now to see if the remaining schedule for April will usher in May flowers or if the April showers will darken the Cardinals’ door.

The St. Louis Cardinals welcome the American League Toronto Blue Jays to Busch Stadium for a three-game set beginning on April 25.

If you thought the St. Louis Cardinals had undergone a rough start to the season, you need look only to the Toronto Blue Jays to see a team in worse shape. The Blue Jays enter Busch Stadium with a miserable record of 5-14.

This should be favorable for the St. Louis Cardinals. The only thing that might dampen this joy is the fact that the Cardinals have played better on the road than at home. Will Busch impact the Cardinals in this series or will the weakened flightless Blue Jays help continue the Cardinals winning ways?

The first game of the set has one-time great Marco Estrada facing one-time great Michael Wacha. Through this point in the 2017 campaign, Estrada owns an 0-1 record with a 2.63 ERA and twenty-four strikeouts in his belt. Wacha owns a 2-1 record with a 2.41 ERA and seventeen strikeouts in his belt.

Noting the immense similarities of the two righties could indicate that the offenses might be silenced yet again (an epidemic affecting the Jays as well). If this is the case, perhaps someone should investigate the MLB for some bird flu. Sorry, I couldn’t resist.

While Estrada has tossed thirteen shut-out innings in his last two starts, the Cardinals have batters such as Jedd Gyorko and Yadier Molina who have hit him well. Gyorko owns a .333 average facing Estrada and Molina owns a .524 average with one home run and five RBI. Matt Adams (I know, I know) has also taken Estrada deep (so Mike Matheny is likely to find him some playing time).

On the Blue Jays side of things, only Kendrys Morales has good numbers facing Wacha. Morales owns a .429 average facing Wacha. The Jays have been cold at the plate and this should likely continue if Wacha holds onto his command.

Game two of the series has Carlos Martinez toeing the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals. The Blue Jays have yet to announce their starter but if their rotation holds then it should be Marcus Stroman.

Martinez owns an 0-3 record on the season with an ERA of 4.76 behind inconsistency of his pitches. When he is on, the opposing team is stymied but, when he isn’t on, then he surrenders walks and hits that hurt.

Stroman holds a 2-2 record on the season with an ERA of 3.10. Stroman has recorded eighteen strikeouts on the young season and is often a force to be reckoned with.

The last time that Stroman faced the Cardinals was in 2014. Jhonny Peralta mustered a .333 average facing Stroman those three years ago. Other Cardinals hitters did not fare so well with many going hitless.

Martinez last faced the Blue Jays in 2016. Then-Blue-Jay Melvin Upton, Jr. went 1-2 against Martinez while the rest of the blue birds were quiet. If Martinez has his control then the Cardinals should look for this to repeat.

I predict a very low-scoring affair in the second game of the set. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cardinals edge the Jays but only likely by one run.

The final game of the three-game set will take place on Thursday afternoon and will have Adam Wainwright climb the mound for the Cardinals. Again, the Blue Jays have yet to announce their starter but- if they follow their normal rotation- their starter should be Francisco Liriano.

This match-up doesn’t favor the Cardinals, I’m sorry to say. Wainwright hasn’t been sharp all season and currently owns a 1-3 record with an inflated 6.27 ERA with twenty-two strikeouts on the year. This said, his last outing was stronger when he faced the Brewers and was supported strongly by the offense.

Liriano, for his career, has been a Cardinals killer. His left-handed approach has stifled the Cardinals in the past (during his years with the Pirates). This season he owns a 1-2 record with an ERA of 4.58. He has recorded nineteen strikeouts on the season.

In his last start against the Cardinals, in 2016, Liriano kept the birds quiet. Holliday hit him well but he is now with New York so we can’t count on his bat this time around. Molina was the only other Cardinal to present positive numbers but he managed only two hits in seven at-bats.

All-in-all the Cardinals should win this series. I’m not sure they will take each game but they certainly can. There are simply too many ifs facing the starting pitching for me to be comfortable going into a series that should be a shoe-in.

At the end of the day, I predict that Wacha will pull the win, Martinez will pull the win (he needs to build up his pitching consistency), and- unfortunately- Wainwright will take the loss. Still, winning two-of-three ain’t bad considering how the St. Louis Cardinals began their 2017 season.

If all goes as planned, the St. Louis Cardinals should take two series wins to close out April. Will May serve as a challenge or will the birds’ own miscues ground the Cardinals?

If my predictions are correct, the St. Louis Cardinals should look at picking up four wins over these next six games. This will push the Cardinals’ record on the season at 13-12. Entering May at one game over .500 is not something that I would have predicted back when the Cardinals first dropped two games to the Reds.

Several regulars on the St. Louis Cardinals need some positive series to raise their average. Players like Dexter Fowler and Aledmys Diaz look to be one step away from being “there” this season and I think these next two series should provide the final push.

All of that said, I will be overjoyed to carry a plus-.500 record into May.

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Speaking of May, the St. Louis Cardinals will open May by hosting the Brewers at Busch. If the Cardinals can muster the same magic they had in Milwaukee then this will be a great way to oepn May. And they will need it as they must face some steep competition in the early summer month.

In May, the Cardinals will face the Braves (in Atlanta), the Marlins (in Miami), host the Cubs, host the Red Sox, host the Giants, visit Chavez Ravine to face the Dodgers, face the Rockies (in Colorado), and then close the month by hosting the Dodgers at Busch. This will not be an easy month.

Of the competition, the only breathers might come early in the month. Other than that, the St. Louis Cardinals had better hope that their base running is strong and wise, their defense is solid and improved, their rotation is overpowering and consistent, and that their offense decides to come play.

While I say this with great weight, I think it will be important to get early wins in May and billowing into May with four additional wins from these next two series here in April will be paramount. Why? I predict that May will not be a month of .500-ball for the Redbirds.

Next: Base Path Problems

What do you think? What worries you about what remains for April? What worries you about May? If you are reading this after one or two of the series in April, how accurate were my predictions? Follow me on Twitter and let’s talk some baseball. Go Cardinals!