St. Louis Cardinals: Questions For Each Pitcher On the Staff

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The St. Louis Cardinals are less than two weeks away from Opening Day. The starting rotation is set, and the bullpen is more or less in order. A few roles are still up in the air, but it appears the team will carry twelve pitchers on their roster once they head north of Spring Training.

This presents the question: who will those twelve pitchers be? For the sake of this article, I’m operating under the assumption that the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff will look like this at the end of Spring Training:

RH Carlos Martinez, RH Adam Wainwright, RH Michael Wacha, RH Lance Lynn, RH Mike Leake, RH Seung-Hwan Oh, LH Kevin Siegrist, LH Brett Cecil, RH Matt Bowman, RH Jonathan Broxton, RH Trevor Rosenthal, RH Miguel Socolovich

The starting rotation is set, as manager Mike Matheny confirmed Sunday:

Not much of a surprise, but Matheny makes it official: Michael Wacha will open the season in the #STLCards rotation.
— Jenifer Langosch (@LangoschMLB) March 19, 2017

Who gets the Opening Day nod is yet to be announced, but the five who will be starting games at the beginning of the season will be Martinez, Wainwright, Wacha, Lynn, and Leake.

In the bullpen, the only spot that seems to be up for grabs is the spot that Socolovich would be filling. Other contenders for his role are righties John Gant and Sam Tuivailala.

Socolovich has performed well in the bigs for St. Louis the previous two seasons, and is out of minor-league options. He’s allowed only two earned runs in eight spring training innings (through March 19). These factors should give him the edge to make the Opening Day roster.

With that in place, the pitchers on the staff still face some questions heading towards April. The Cardinals’ pitching led the team to 100 wins in 2015, but its mediocrity inhibited the team from returning to the postseason in 2016. This year, it could be the x-factor in St. Louis.

Let’s take a look at the different questions that surround each pitcher less than two weeks out from Opening Day:

Will World Baseball Classic participants Carlos Martinez and Seung-Hwan Oh be on track for the beginning of the St. Louis Cardinals season?

St. Louis Cardinals Staff ace Carlos Martinez and closer Seung-Hwan Oh will both be on the Opening Day roster without inhibitions. Neither have had any health concerns this Spring, and they’ll be serving in key roles as soon as the regular season begins.

Martinez will return to Cardinals camp this week after his native Dominican Republic got bounced in the second round of pool play over the weekend. Oh was back in camp after South Korea failed to move past the first round of pool play.

Part of the hesitancy major league organizations have about their pitchers participating in the Classic is the workload their players are getting while away from the team. In a typical Spring Training, each team is able to closely monitor its pitchers and schedule them to appear to their liking in order to maximize their readiness for Opening Day.

Starting pitchers need to build up stamina so that they can pitch deep into ballgames once the regular season begins, and relievers must also be built up for potential multi-inning outings and appearances in consecutive games.

This is a concern that the St. Louis Cardinals are familiar with. Back in 2013, Mitchell Boggs idled in Team USA’s bullpen in March and imploded as the St. Louis closer in April.

Seung-Hwan Oh

Oh appeared in only two games for Team Korea. He hurled 3 1/3 scoreless innings, allowed only one hit and one walk, and struck out six. The Final Boss is a living legend in Korea and performed well for his country in his fourth World Baseball Classic.

Back in the Grapefruit League this spring, Oh has appeared in three games and allowed three runs, but all of those runs came before he departed for the Classic. In two games since returning for Korea, he’s struck out two and allowed only one hit in two innings of work.

When Oh returned last week, Mike Matheny gave a vote of confidence in his closer:

“He’s ready. We knew when we sent him to the WBC that he was going to be ready when he came back. He looks great.”

Since Oh was only away from Florida for one round of the Classic, there shouldn’t be any concern regarding his readiness for the season. 2017 will be his second year in major league baseball, but the 34-year old is a baseball veteran. He knows what he needs to do to be ready to go for a long, grueling season.

Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez made two starts for the Dominican Republic, one against Team Canada in the first round, and the other against Team Puerto Rico in the second round. Both outings lasted four innings. He allowed three runs (only one was earned), six hits, three walks, and struck out eight in total.

For analysis of Carlos’ first start in the WBC, head over to this link.

For analysis of his second start, head over to this link.

In major league Spring Training, Martinez made one start before departing for the Classic, throwing three scoreless innings against the Mets. Expect him to be back on the mound for the Cardinals sometime later this week.

Martinez has made three starts in total leading up to the season. The most pitches he’s thrown in one game this spring is seventy-one, in his start against Puerto Rico. Compared to his St. Louis teammates in the rotation, he’s a bit behind. Wainwright, Leake, and Lynn have made four starts each so far this spring. Wacha has made five.

Had the Dominican Republic advanced to the semifinal round of the Classic, Martinez would have made his fourth start of the spring in the coming days. He’s got two weeks to build up for a potential Opening Day assignment April 2. That should be enough time for him to be completely ready to go as the premier starter in the St. Louis rotation.

It was fun to see Oh and Martinez represent their countries as two of the best pitchers on their respective international staffs. The same will be the case this summer, as the pair will also be two of the best pitchers for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Will Adam Wainwright and Trevor Rosenthal return to their former dominance after disappointing St. Louis Cardinals’ 2016 seasons?

Adam Wainwright

Adam Wainwright is a three-time All-Star. He led the staff in 2013 and 2014, hurling a combined 519 2/3 innings, postseason included. He posted a career-low 2.38 ERA in 2014 and earned the All-Star start on the mound. In 2015 he got off to a great start, but tore his left Achilles tendon in April and didn’t return until late September when he was limited to a bullpen role.

He returned to the rotation in 2016 and had his worst statistical season as a big-leaguer, finishing 13-9 with a 4.62 ERA. He allowed the most hits and earned runs of any qualified National League starter. The former staff ace showed flashes of brilliance, but at the end of the season, it was a frustrating and disappointing year.

Wainwright vows he’ll be back in 2017. That hasn’t translated into results on the mound so far this spring. In four starts, he’s allowed fourteen runs in 10 2/3 innings. Opposing hitters are hitting him at a .395 rate in Grapefruit League play.

The question at hand regarding Waino is this: how much of his 2016 performance should be attributed to his injury the previous season, and how much of his performance should be attributed to a decline as he nears the twilight of his career?

He’s 35 years old and the organization has some exciting young talent in its system. His contract expires at the end of the 2018 season. The writing may soon be on the wall for Wainwright.

That could all change, though, with a rebound performance in 2017. I’m bullish on what he can accomplish this season. Believe it or not, he’s only pitched seven full major league seasons in a starting rotation. He should have plenty of innings left in his arm.

He’s still got a five pitch mix, and he had a revelation earlier this spring when he rediscovered the correct grip on his signature curveball. Maybe Wainwright won’t be the best pitcher on the Cardinals’ staff anymore, but he can still be a good one. Let’s see how his regular season starts before proclaiming the end of his career has arrived.

Trevor Rosenthal

In five big-league seasons, Trevor Rosenthal already has 110 career saves. He was an All-Star in 2015 when he set the franchise’s single-season saves record with forty-eight. He features a fastball that reaches triple-digits, and he’s been absolutely lights-out in the postseason (0.69 ERA in twenty-three games, forty-two strikeouts in twenty-six innings).

Rosenthal entered the 2016 season entrenched at the Cardinals’ back end of the bullpen. He couldn’t repeat the dominance of his previous three seasons, though, and was removed from the closer’s role as the summer began. At the end of the season, he had fourteen saves and a 4.46 ERA in 40 1/3 innings. He allowed nearly two baserunners per inning pitched.

He also ended the season without a clear role in 2017. This spring, he’s made one start, but lat issues slowed him down at the beginning of camp and he’ll begin the year in the bullpen again.

He’s likely to begin the year in a multi-inning relief role that could translate into a high-leverage swing man role, the position we saw Andrew Miller in for the Cleveland Indians during the 2016 postseason.

Rosenthal’s success in whatever role he assumes will hinge on his ability to command his pitches and keep runners of base. It seems so obvious, but his inability to get ahead in counts and his high walk rate were his undoing last season.

Rosenthal has the potential to be a big-time player in the St. Louis bullpen this season. If he returns to All-Star form, he could be a key piece in the Cardinals’ ability to shorten games and bridge leads to his successor, closer Seung-Hwan Oh.

If Rosenthal doesn’t return to being an effective late-inning reliever, will southpaws Kevin Siegrist and Brett Cecil be enough to protect late leads for the St. Louis Cardinals?

The St. Louis Cardinals figure to open the season with Kevin Siegrist and Brett Cecil as their primary set-up men. It’s a role not foreign to either pitcher; Siegrist has seventy-two holds in four major league seasons and Cecil has fifty-four in eight seasons.

Kevin Siegrist

Siegrist in particular has been one of the better set-up relievers recently in Major League Baseball. Three of his four major-league seasons have been exceptional, with an injury-riddled 2014 being the only blip in his young career.

Siegrist dealt with some shoulder soreness at the beginning of camp, but has come back strong and pitched effectively in four spring outings. An effective Kevin Siegrist in 2017 will be a valuable asset again for the Cardinals.

He will be the first choice for Matheny to protect a lead in the eighth inning or earlier. The skipper has flexibility with Siegrist since he can get both right-handed and left-handed batters out. He’s a cog in the St. Louis relief corps.

Brett Cecil

The Cardinals signed Brett Cecil to a 4-year contract worth $30.5 million during the offseason. Since Zach Duke is out for probably the entire year after undergoing Tommy-John surgery in November, Cecil will step up into a key role in the bullpen.

Cecil’s had some experience in a set-up role in his career, and it appears the Cardinals will lean heavily on him to do just that this season.

This spring, Cecil has appeared in five games. Four of his outings were good for a scoreless inning of work, but a lone appearance earlier this month against the Mets was a disaster. He failed to record an out and surrendered six runs. Since he’s been good in all other performances besides that one, it’s safe to call that one performance an outlier for now.

For his Spring Training career, Cecil holds a 5.10 ERA. He may be one of those pitchers who uses the spring to fine-tune his repertoire so that he’s firing on all cylinders by the time the regular season hits.

This isn’t at all uncommon for pitchers in March. That’s also why spring statistics aren’t something to focus too much on. What really matters for a pitcher is if he looks like he’s in command of his deliveries, in control of the at-bats, and executing the pitches he wants to make.

Cecil has walked three batters in four innings so far in Grapefruit League action, but two of those free passes came during the outing where he didn’t record a single out. Because of that, he didn’t qualify for an inning pitched.

Brett Cecil is a veteran on the mound with the stability of a four-year contract. The Cardinals will rely on him to be a plus arm in the bullpen this season and in the future. That being said, Siegrist is still probably the first option for Matheny when a late-inning lead needs protection.

Can St. Louis Cardinals relievers Matt Bowman and Miguel Socolovich continue the brief taste of major league success they’ve had in the previous two seasons?

Matt Bowman

Matt Bowman was a Rule-5 draft pick of the St. Louis Cardinals during the 2015-2016 offseason. As a result, he’d have to stick with the major league club out of the gate or be returned to the waiver wire.

He broke camp with the Cardinals and excelled in the role Seth Maness once held. He earned an extra vote of confidence when the team decided to non-tender Maness’ contract and allow him to walk in free agency at the end of the 2016 season.

Bowman appeared in fifty-nine games as a rookie out of the St. Louis bullpen last season and recorded a 3.46 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .229 batting average. His heavy sinker allowed him to induce many ground ball outs, which became his specialty. A starter in the minor leagues, he also has the ability to go multiple innings in relief.

Can Bowman repeat his 2016 performance and maybe even be better in 2017? He’s looked very good so far this spring, tossing seven innings with only an unearned run on his stat line. The more Bowman produces on the mound, the more and more comfortable Matheny will be with going to him in a mid-inning jam or late in a close game.

Bowman isn’t taking his spot on the team for granted, though. The Cardinals have relief options from the right side waiting in the wings. His performance last season and so far this spring should secure his place on the roster to begin the year, but the organization doesn’t have to keep him in St. Louis all season like they did last year.

Miguel Socolovich

Even if Socolovich doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, it’s inevitable that we’ll see him in St. Louis at some point this season, so the same question still applies.

Soco has appeared in forty-three games out of the Cardinals’ bullpen in 2015-2016. He posted ERA’s of 1.82 and 2.00 in those two seasons. He’s been very good, but Cardinals fans haven’t seen too much of him. That may change this year, as he’s fighting for an Opening Day roster spot instead of the mid-season call-up he’s received the previous two years.

Since he’s out of options, sending him down to the minor leagues at any point this season would mean he would first have to clear the waiver wire, where he’d be made available to all twenty-nine teams before returning to the Cardinals organization.

He’s pitched eight innings in six appearances so far this spring, allowing only two runs and four hits. A low opposing batting average seems to be a strength of his, as he’s held hitters to a .154 rate this spring. In 2015, opposing batters hit .221 against him. In 2016, they hit .086.

Socolovich is a pitcher who has versatility in the bullpen. He can go multiple innings, as he’s done this spring for the Cardinals, but he also has the potential to pitch in tough spots. Like Bowman, the more he produces on the mound, the more trust he’ll earn from his manager.

Can Mike Leake and Jonathan Broxton be more than just inning-eaters in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation and bullpen?

2016 was the first full year for both Mike Leake and Jonathan Broxton as members of the St. Louis Cardinals. They both joined the organization as veterans with ample major-league experience with other teams. Leake enters the 2017 season as a back end starter, and Broxton projects as a middle reliever.

Mike Leake

Leake had the worst statistical season of his career in 2016, going 9-12 with a 4.69 ERA. He also dealt with a bout of the shingles that forced him to miss a couple of starts and sapped his strength.

In his seven-year career, Leake has been at his best when he’s been able to shoulder a heavy workload and turn in quality starts to keep his team in ballgames. He’s never been a staff ace with unhittable stuff, but his ability to eat innings has real value in a major league rotation.

He’s eclipsed 200 innings just once in his career, in 2014 with the Cincinnati Reds. If he could repeat that for the Cardinals in 2017, it would be a successful season for Leake.

But I wonder if Leake has the ability to be more than just an innings-eater. He doesn’t have the best stuff on the staff, but his five-pitch mix is enough to keep hitters off balance. He induces plenty of ground balls, but he also has the ability to rack up strikeouts.

With what figures to be an improved defense behind him in 2017, Leake’s numbers should get better. He’s had a decent spring so far, and he mentioned that this spring is the “most comfortable” he’s ever been.

If Mike Leake exceeds expectations this season, he could make a good Cardinals rotation great.

Jonathan Broxton

Broxton joined the Cardinals in the middle of the 2015 season at the trade deadline. 2016 was his first full season in the St. Louis uniform, and the result was a mixed bag. He posted a 4.30 ERA in sixty-six relief appearances but held opposing hitters to a .229 average.

Broxton was an All-Star closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2009 and 2010. Could he return to those heights in St. Louis?

He won’t be pitching in the ninth inning, and he isn’t Matheny’s first choice late in ballgames. Last season, Broxton often pitched in games where the Cardinals were trailing late, in extra innings, or when the starter was pulled early.

All to say, he wasn’t placed in too many high-leverage situations. Yes, Matheny did go to him a bit too often when he had better options, but it’s not like Broxton was the skipper’s eighth-inning specialist.

Even so, an improved Jonathan Broxton would be very beneficial to the Cardinals bullpen in whatever role he fills. You can never have too many quality relief options, and with the way Matheny often manages the bullpen, it would be good if he was presented with a situation in which he couldn’t go horribly wrong with his choices.

Broxton’s been a very good reliever in the past, and if he can return even close to his All-Star form, that would be a big boost for St. Louis.

Will Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha be able to put together full and successful St. Louis Cardinals seasons in the rotation without any limitations from previous injuries?

Lance Lynn is coming off of Tommy-John surgery, and Michael Wacha has dealt with a stress reaction in his pitching shoulder that has cost him time two of the previous three seasons. All are waiting to see how Lynn performs in his season back from surgery, and all are holding their breath and crossing their fingers that Wacha will be able to pitch an entire St. Louis Cardinals season without complications.

Lance Lynn

Lynn had Tommy-John immediately following the 2015 season, so he’s more than a year removed from surgery. That bodes well for him, as he’s enjoyed the benefit of having a regular offseason to prepare for the 2017 campaign.

Lynn’s been very good so far this spring. In fourteen innings, he’s allowed only two earned runs and walked only two. His delivery looks free and easy, and he’s mixing in all his pitches. The Cardinals sorely missed Lynn in the rotation last season.

Twice in his four seasons in a major league rotation he’s exceeded 200 innings on the mound, and he’s quietly been one of the better starters in the National League during those four years. His best season was in 2014 when he tossed a career-high 203 2/3 innings and posted a career-low 2.74 ERA.

Lynn has been a big-time starter for St. Louis in his young career. This will be a big season for him, as he’s not only returning from injury but also pitching in a contract year.

Michael Wacha

Wacha has arguably been the most impressive Cardinal on the mound this spring. In five starts, he’s posted a 2.65 ERA and struck out fifteen in seventeen innings pitched. He’s got velocity early this spring, and he’s built up strength in his troublesome shoulder.

For Wacha, the sky is the limit. A first-round pick in 2012, he landed in St. Louis a year later and helped carry the team to a National League Championship. He earned an All-Star appearance in 2015. He’s already enjoyed great success at the major league level, and he’s just 25 years old.

He’s also dealt with frustrating injuries. He missed significant time in 2014 with a stress reaction, and it flared up again last season. This is the type of injury that has the danger to linger and affect a pitcher for years. During the offseason, Wacha focused on strengthening his shoulder so that it wouldn’t become a problem again this season.

If that work pays off and Wacha can stay healthy, it will be a win for St. Louis. However, if he can stay healthy and return to dominant form, the Cardinals will have another top-of-the-rotation caliber starting pitcher.

Much of whether the pitching staff can reach its potential this season hinges on Wacha’s performance. If he comes through, he could help return the rotation to top-10 in the league. Another frustrating year with injury, and his future as a starting pitcher could be in jeopardy.

The St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff has the potential to be a strength of the team this season. To get there, each pitcher has something to prove.

Martinez and Oh must demonstrate that their participation in the World Baseball Classic did not hinder their readiness for the St. Louis Cardinals major league season.

There shouldn’t be any concern with Martinez or Oh. Both got adequate work in the Classic and are back with St. Louis for two more weeks of Spring Training. They’ll be ready to go.

Wainwright and Rosenthal need to show that 2016 was a fluke and that they can again be counted on to be dominant pitchers.

Neither has been dominant so far this spring. Wainwright probably isn’t as good as he once was, but he once was really, really good. If he improves from last season, he still has the potential to be an above-average starter.

Rosenthal, on the other hand, could excel in a new role. Again, it comes down to his ability to control and command his pitches. If he does that, he could again be a weapon in the St. Louis bullpen.

Siegrist and Cecil will begin the season as the set-up men for Oh. Their performance will either keep them in that role or send Matheny searching for other options.

These two lefties have had successful major-league careers so far, and both are good options as set-up men. They bring stability to the back end of the bullpen.

Bowman and Socolovich will get the chance to prove their worth over the course of an entire major-league season after performing well in limited action in recent years.

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Both have been good so far this spring, which is encouraging to those who might expect a decline from either pitcher. We’ll have to wait and see how they perform in the regular season.

Leake and Broxton will look to improve upon their 2016 results and contribute more than just innings to the staff.

Though these two pitchers have the potential to be better than they were last season, the ceiling might not be very much higher. Still, and improvement would be beneficial for the Cardinals.

Lynn and Wacha are coming off of injuries that kept them out for either part or all of the 2016 season. They’ve been above average starting pitchers in the past and will look to return to that status this year.

Lynn exudes confidence in his ability to return from Tommy-John which is encouraging. Wacha is also confident that his shoulder is 100% healthy, but in the past his injuries have cropped up mid-season. That will be something to watch closely as the season progresses.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ starting rotation certainly has the potential to be one of the better rotations in the National League. The bullpen has arms that are flexible in multi-inning or late-inning roles. It will be interesting to see how Matheny mixes and matches his relief options.

Next: Could Nick Ahmed Join the Redbirds?

Opening Day is right around the corner. The Cardinals’ pitching staff will be perhaps the biggest factor in the team’s success this season. These questions and more will begin to be answered in just a few short weeks.

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