St. Louis Cardinals: Seven Predictions For the 2017 Season

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The St. Louis Cardinals are less than a month away from opening the 2017 campaign against the Chicago Cubs, so here’s some speculation on the upcoming season.

Who had the St. Louis Cardinals leading the National League in home runs last season? Who would have guessed that Jedd Gyorko would pace the team in long balls? Predictions in baseball are difficult to make because many of them end up being absurdly inaccurate, but it’s still fun to hypothesize nevertheless.

Most fans and writers who joined in the speculation surrounding the Cardinals this time last year probably ended up being even further off the mark than usual, as 2016 was an anomaly in many ways for St. Louis.

It wasn’t different just because the team missed the postseason for the first time in six years. As was mentioned, the Birds led the National League in long balls, but also ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive and baserunning metrics. Their pitching was lackluster, and they finished with a losing record at Busch Stadium for the first time in its eleven year history.

2016 wasn’t all negative, though, as it also had some welcome performances and surprises. Aledmys Diaz burst onto the scene less than a year after being designated for assignment. Yadier Molina crouched behind the plate for the most games he ever has in a single season and still saw an uptick in his offensive output. Carlos Martinez ascended to the role of staff ace.

So, as the Cardinals continue to prepare for the upcoming year, let’s get started with seven predictions for the 2017 season:

Randal Grichuk will be the first St. Louis Cardinals player to swat 35+ home runs since Albert Pujols did in 2011.

Everyone is expecting the St. Louis Cardinals’ power production to decline in 2017, and while it’s unreasonable to expect this year’s team to match last year’s total of 225 long balls, there might be more pop in the lineup than what initially meets the eye.

Yes, Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss are gone. They each hit 20+ home runs in 2016. Jedd Gyorko probably won’t hit thirty dingers again this year. However, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, and Matt Carpenter accounted for more than twenty homers a piece last season and return to the lineup this season as regulars.

What’s impressive about Grichuk’s total of twenty-four home runs is that he played part of the summer in triple-A Memphis, and spent the first half of the season being shuffled in and out of the lineup.

In the last two seasons, Grichuk has swatted forty-one home runs in 769 at-bats. That’s roughly a home run every nineteen at-bats. If he takes 600 at-bats this season at that pace, he’ll hit thirty-two home runs. But that pace is likely to improve if he is starting every day in left field instead of being on a yo-yo between Memphis, the big league bench, and the starting lineup.

Since being traded to the Cardinals after the 2013 season, the Cardinals have gushed about Grichuk’s potential for power. He’s displayed streaks of it in the majors, but again, part of that is due to him being in and out of the lineup. It’s difficult for a major-league hitter to maintain a level of consistency under those circumstances, and even more difficult for a young player who is still developing.

If Grichuk gets a real chance in 2017 and produces, there’s no reason to believe he won’t lead the team in home runs and make a push for the 40-homer plateau.

Piscotty and Carpenter will likely be in the 20-25 home run range again, and Aledmys Diaz, who finished 2017 with seventeen home runs, could eclipse twenty with a full season (he spent a month on the disabled list in 2016).

And while Gyorko probably won’t hit thirty again, could the Gyorko/Jhonny Peralta timeshare at third base combine for more than thirty home runs? Probably. Remember, Peralta missed the better half of the 2016 season but led the team with twenty-one home runs in 2014.

This Cardinals lineup still has the potential for some power production, but what’s exciting is it should also be better suited for extra-base-hits and driving in runs in ways other than relying on the long ball all the time.

The St. Louis Cardinals still won’t be good on the base paths in 2017.

In some defensive metrics, the St. Louis Cardinals ranked 30th in baseball in baserunning last year. Will they improve this year? By that measure, it will be hard not to. But just because they don’t finish dead last in the majors on the base paths this season doesn’t mean they’ll suddently become a good baserunning team.

Already this spring, the Cardinals have made some unsettling mistakes on the bases, from getting picked off to getting thrown out trying to score from second base.

As a qualifier, some of that falls on the third base coach Chris Maloney, and some of the guys getting picked off are minor-leaguers who won’t factor into the big-league equation just yet. But still, it’s frustrating to see these mistakes since the organization has seemingly cracked down on eliminating those errors this spring training.

Manager Mike Matheny always wants his guys to be “aggressive, but smart.” That was the narrative all last year, but we kept seeing baserunners getting gunned down by outfielders as they were attempting to take the extra base.

The Cardinals stole just thrity-six bases in 2016. Just because they now have Dexter Fowler and, presumably, a full year of Kolten Wong, doesn’t mean that number will increase by much this season. But if Matheny really wants to practice the aggressiveness he preaches, he’ll look to take advantage of some of the speed on the roster by giving the steal sign to more baserunners this year.

My bet is Matheny won’t commit to sending more runners for the entirety of the season. It seems like every year, the Cardinals expect to be stealing more bases than they did the previous year, but it never comes to fruition.

The Cardinals probably won’t be last in baserunning metrics this year, and they better not be as much as they’ve emphasized improving in that area this offseason and spring.

Nevertheless, with the combination of a low stolen base output, a third base coach who often doesn’t give his runners a chance at the plate, and the inevitable mistakes here and there, the Cardinals still won’t be a good baserunning team in 2017.

If healthy, Michael Wacha will exceed St. Louis Cardinals expectations in 2017 and be one of the team’s best pitchers.

Michael Wacha enters the 2017 season competing for a spot in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. Question marks also surround the 25-year old right-hander about the health of his right shoulder which landed him on the disabled list in 2014 and 2016.

However, after strengthening the shoulder in the offseason, he’s off to a good start this spring. Mike Matheny gushed over his first bullpen session in February, and he’s been effective in the first week and a half of spring games. Through eight spring innings (three starts), he has yet to surrender a run and has struck out seven.

All that said, Wacha still is somewhat of an unknown for 2017. Even if he breaks camp as the fifth starter (he likely will), the organization has to wonder if he’ll hold up all season as a starting pitcher. The most innings he’s pitched in a major-league season is 181 1/3, when he was an All-Star in 2015.

Wacha burst onto the scene one year after being drafted and led the Cardinals to the World Series in 2013. He was heralded for his sizzling fastball, nasty changeup, and over-the-top delivery. Since his initial stress reaction in 2014, he’s too often left fastballs up in the zone and his secondary pitches have been ineffective.

If Wacha is as healthy as he says he is, there’s optimism that he can return to his dominant form of 2013. Even in 2015, when he didn’t spend time on the disabled list, he still ran out of gas towards the end of the year. The Cardinals might have to set an innings limit on Wacha or monitor his workload closely in another way, but if it keeps the righty effective and away from the disabled list, it could pay off in a big way.

Wacha has an immense amount of natural ability. Physically, he’s got a great build for a pitcher: 6 feet 6 inches and 215 pounds. His fastball and changeup are plus-pitches, and he’s got a curveball and a cutter he mixes in as well.

He’s had a knack for missing bats in his young major-league career, which speaks to the depth and movement of his repertoire. He usually posts decent strikeout totals as well, which is an indicator of his ability to generate swings-and-misses.

If Michael Wacha is healthy in 2017, expect him to have a bounce-back year and ascend again near the top of the Cardinals’ rotation.

Outfielder Harrison Bader will be the first prospect to get the call-up to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017.

First things first, these were my two criteria in determining who would be the first St. Louis Cardinals prospect to get called up:

The player must be in the organization’s top-30 prospect rankings (according to MLB Pipeline’s 2017 list); and,
The player must have no prior major-league experience.

That eliminated from consideration players like Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly who have previously had stints in St. Louis but are on track to begin the year at triple-A Memphis.

This was somewhat of a tough choice to make, as there were a number routes to take. Ultimately, the decision came down to Harrison Bader or right-handed pitcher Sandy Alcantara. I settled on Bader for a few reasons.

First, he’ll probably begin the year in triple-A, while Alcantara will probably begin at double-A Springfield.

Second, although I believe we will see Alcantara in St. Louis at some point this season, I think Bader is closer to the top of the reserve outfield depth chart than Alcantara is to the top of the reserve starting pitching depth chart.

Tommy Pham has yet to put together a complete season at the big-league level, and I doubt Jose Martinez, even if he makes the team out of spring, will be able to sustain the type of success that is necessary for staying in St. Louis all season.

Enter Harrison Bader. I envision him getting the call sometime this summer to inject a new look into the Cardinals roster. He’s the type of player who would get called up to provide a “spark.”

Couldn’t the same reasoning be used with Alcantara? Yes, but the St. Louis Cardinals have enough pitching depth that I think Alcantara is more likely to be called up when rosters expand in September.

To be clear, I don’t think Bader’s call-up will be due to any desire to cut into the playing time of Randal Grichuk, Dexter Fowler, or Stephen Piscotty. Rather, Bader could keep himself busy as a fourth outfielder.

So besides that, why Bader? He’s been a quick mover in the Cardinals system since being drafted in 2015. In two minor-league seasons, he’s slashed .281/.346/.476 and popped thirty home runs in 700 at-bats.

This spring with St. Louis, he’s hit .381 with two home runs and seven runs batted in through Wednesday, March 9. He went deep in his first spring at-bat a couple of weeks ago.

He’s the organization’s top outfield prospect, and the team’s fifth-ranked prospect overall. He strikes out a bit too often and his walk rate could use a bump, but he’s the type of prospect who has a ton of potential to grow and improve.

The Cardinals are deep on outfield talent in the minor-league system, but expect Bader to rise to the top of that class in 2017 and soon surpass Tommy Pham and Jose Martinez on the organization’s depth chart.

The St. Louis Cardinals will sign Yadier Molina to a contract extension sometime between now and the end of the season.

By now, we all know the state of affairs: Yadier Molina is entering the final year of his 5-year contract he signed with the St. Louis Cardinals prior to the 2012 season. He’s been worth every penny of the $75 million contract, but will the team extend him or allow him to test the waters of free agency?

Complicating that decision is the presence of 22-year old catcher Carson Kelly, who is baseball’s top prospect at the position and the team’s second-ranked prospect overall. He made his major-league debut in September last season.

I wrote recently on why the Cardinals should extend Molina’s contract, but does that mean they will?

The answer is yes.

Why is Molina different from say, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, or Matt Holliday, who all moved on to new teams after spending their prime years in St. Louis?

First, with the exception of Pujols, those guys all played for different teams before coming to the Cardinals. Molina was drafted by St. Louis in 2000 and has worn the Birds on the Bat in each of his thirteen major-league seasons.

Also, the fact that the organization has already gone public with its intentions regarding Molina’s future is different from the route they took with Holliday last year. We didn’t know the front office wasn’t planning on picking up Holliday’s option until late in last season.

Here in 2017, prior to the beginning of the regular season, the Cardinals have already made it common knowledge that they’re in talks with Molina and his agent.

While the organization values Kelly to the extent that he’s likely an untouchable in any trade talks that may arise during the season, triple-A is the perfect place for him to spend most, if not all, of 2016. I don’t expect him to get called up to St. Louis until September.

The only reason they may need him before then is if Molina goes down for an extended amount of time. If Molina’s big-league backup, Eric Fryer, lands on the disabled list, I wouldn’t be surprised if the organization kept Kelly in triple-A and called up Alberto Rosario to assume backup duties instead.

If the Cardinals are committed to singing Molina to a contract extension before he can reach free agency, they’ll probably want to get moving on that sooner rather than later. Molina is currently with Team Puerto Rico for the World Baseball Classic, so that may delay things momentarily. When Molina returns to Jupiter, the team will have about two weeks before Opening Day to negotiate terms for an extension.

If he doesn’t sign during Spring Training, it will be difficult to discern what exactly is the organization’s plan from there. It’s typically not a practice of General Manager John Mozeliak to discuss and finalize contracts during the regular season.

If Molina remains unsigned as the regular season begins, Cardinal Nation will be feeling an increasing sense of urgency as the year progresses. Management doesn’t want that. They’ll get it done before the end of the season.

Mike Matheny will remain the St. Louis Cardinals’ skipper during the 2017 season and throughout the entirety of his current contract, which runs through 2020.

To be fair, this is more than just a prediction for the upcoming season; it’s a prediction about the remainder of Mike Matheny’s contract as manager. Shortly after the St. Louis Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time during Matheny’s tenure, he signed a three-year contract extension which takes him through the 2020 season.

It’s easy to be critical of Matheny. From bullpen mismanagement to puzzling lineup selections to his obsession for double switches and bunts, he has increasingly been used as a punching bag for a particular group of Cardinals fans in recent years.

Matheny is far from a perfect manager. He’s made some erroneous in-game decisions that have cost the team wins in previous seasons. But let’s not forget what he’s accomplished in his first five years at the helm.

He’s the only manager in the history of baseball to lead his team to the postseason in his first four seasons. He has a 461-349 record from the dugout, good for a .569 winning percentage. No team performed better for its manager from 2012-2016.

His postseason record leaves something to be desired: it stands at 21-22. As the skipper, he’s made it to the World Series once, in 2013, and the National League Championship Series three times.

While Matheny has had success in leading four Cardinals teams to the postseason, the ultimate goal of a World Series Championship has thus far eluded him.

His success is quantifiable in his win-loss record since taking over for Hall-of-Famer Tony LaRussa. But that’s not the only reason he’ll be in the St. Louis dugout for at least four more seasons.

He has a great working relationship with General Manager John Mozeliak, and all indications are that players love playing for him. He’s a natural leader with a ‘let’s get down to business’ attitude that his guys appreciate. Moreover, he has never drawn unnecessary negative attention to the ball club.

Fans may be tired of his strategical errors, and the media may sneer at his standoffish attitude towards criticism, but at the end of the day, the guy’s been a winner in his five years as skipper.

Yes, he needs to win a World Series to turn around his favorability and reputation in St. Louis. He’ll get his chance in at least the next four seasons.

The St. Louis Cardinals will return to the postseason as a wild card, but lose to the Chicago Cubs in the National League Division Series.

It would be easy to write about how 2017 is the year for the St. Louis Cardinals and that they’ll embark on a smooth journey that culminates in their twelfth World Series Championship. While I believe the Cardinals will be an improved team this season and that they’ll return to the playoffs after missing the promised land by one game in 2016, the Chicago Cubs are still really, really good.

In the current wild card format that was implemented in 2012, winning the division is of greater importance than it ever has been. The two wild card teams are left to compete in a do-or-die play-in game. The reward for victory? Meeting the league’s top team for a best-of-five division series.

In order for the Cardinals (as a wild card) to meet the Cubs in the NLDS, the Cubs would have to have the best record in the National League and the Cardinals would have to win the wild card game.

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The Cubs won 103 regular-season games in 2016, eight better than the next best team in the Senior Circuit, the Washington Nationals. They have a bit of a different look entering this year than they did when they won the World Series (no Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, or Aroldis Chapman), but they still have a vast swath of talent up and down their roster.

Former Cardinal Jon Jay and Albert Almora replace Fowler in center field, a full season of Kyle Schwarber more than makes up for Soler’s absence, and Wade Davis (who was traded from Kansas City for Soler), replaces Chapman at the back end of the bullpen.

On paper, the Cubs are the team to beat in 2017. They’re the defending World Series Champions and now the class of the National League. The Cardinals, on the other hand, along with the San Francisco Giants, have been the class of the National League for the first half of the current decade.

St. Louis shouldn’t be counted out of the mix this year, though. They’re laser-focused on returning to October baseball after missing the postseason for the first time in six years. They’ve revamped the roster and have pushed for a fresh, upbeat personality as a team. The addition of Dexter Fowler certainly goes a long way in that pursuit.

The Cardinals hope that their re-branded attitude and the chip from being division underdogs translates into success on the field this season. They’ll be a improved team from 2016, but the Cubs are looking for ways to improve as well. The Cardinals will be good, but the Cubs will be better.

Next: Checking In On Spring Training

Losing to the Cubs in the NLDS back in 2015 was painful for Cardinals fans. If the Cubs do it again in 2017, after winning the World Series in 2016, it will have been a rough three years for Cardinal Nation. Let’s end with a dose of optimism, though: predictions, while they are made honestly, are often times wrong, right?

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