St. Louis Cardinals: National League Central Division Preview

Most around St. Louis Cardinals nation have focused on the competition with the Chicago Cubs in 2017, but how does the rest of the National League Central shape up?

The annual goal for the St. Louis Cardinals is to win the World Series, which starts with winning the division. The Chicago Cubs set the standard in 2016, winning 103 games and the World Series. Therefore, much of the attention surrounding the Cardinals has focused on catching the Cubs in 2017.

However, there are three other teams in the division. While they hope to catch the Cubs, the St. Louis Cardinals must also take care of business against these rivals as if they hope to compete for the division title. While the NL Central will again be headlined by an exceptional Cubs team, the Pirates will also challenge the Cardinals next season.

Although this post will focus mainly on non-Cardinals teams, you can read my 2017 Resolutions post for an in-depth pseudo-preview for St. Louis.

Before diving into 2017 predictions, following are relevant stats from the 2016 standings.

A few quick observations:

• The St. Louis Cardinals finished tied for the worst home record in the NL Central with the Cincinnati Reds. Additionally, this was the first time since 1999 that the team finished below .500 at home.
• The Cubs run differential suggests they may have been unlucky to win “only” 103 games. Their Pythagorean Win-Loss Record, which suggests the number of games a team wins over the course of a season is a function of their run differential, indicates they were expected to win 107 games last season.
• The NL Central struggled defensively last year. Three of the MLB’s seven worst defensive teams were in the division.

The NL Central will likely see improvement across the board in 2017. The Reds and Brewers had the third and ninth youngest MLB rosters, respectively. For the Reds, this inexperience manifested in the pitching staff, which gave up the most home runs ever in a single season. The Brewers saw this inexperience in the field: their 136 errors were the most in the MLB.

The Pirates defense has been consistently poor for the last few seasons, so it is unlikely they will make a jump on that side of the ball. However, Andrew McCutchen suffered his worst MLB season since his rookie year in 2009. Projections see him rebounding to perform at a high level offensively to boost the Pirates lineup.

Our friends over at FanGraphs have compiled win-loss projections for the 2017 season. Following are the predicted standings, based on FanGraphs Depth Charts.

1. Chicago Cubs, 94-68
2. Louis Cardinals, 84-78
3. Pittsburgh Pirates, 82-80
4. Cincinnati Reds, 69-93
5. Milwaukee Brewers, 67-95

These predictions differ only slightly from the 2016 results. However, the Pirates are projected to improve and compete with the Cardinals. A projected two game difference leaves very little breathing room. Just a few breaks or injuries could very easily result in the Pirates outperforming the Cardinals in 2016, while the Cardinals would need to do much more work to catch the Cubs.

While teams will continue to make roster moves over the next couple of months, we have a fairly clear picture of what each team will look like in 2017. Following, I go through key additions and losses for each rival club, as well as a storylines to watch next season.

Embed from Getty Images

The Pittsburgh Pirates are better than we think.

After three straight seasons as the St. Louis Cardinals top competition in the NL Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates struggled to a sub-.500 record in 2016.

Pittsburgh Pirates, key additions: Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon

Pittsburgh Pirates, key losses: Matt Joyce

Interestingly, the Pirates will enter the 2017 season with essentially the same roster as 2016. Pittsburgh is banking on rebound seasons from their core players, including Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Harrison. While the Pirates were rumored to be in multiple discussions to trade franchise icon Andrew McCutchen, it is unlikely that they will make a major move at this point.

Gerrit Cole, after emerging as an ace in 2015, struggled last season. Cole fought with triceps tightness after leaving a June contest with the St. Louis Cardinals and accumulated only 116 innings over 21 starts. His ERA jumped to 3.88, while his strikeout rate dropped approximately 20%.

Andrew McCutchen’s struggles at the plate largely resulted from a decline in batted ball success. His .297 BABIP was far below his career mark of .331, and his worst since a .291 mark in 2011. While McCutchen’s average exit velocity dropped from 91.3 MPH in 2015 to 90.3 MPH in 2016, he may still have suffered poor batted ball luck last year.

McCutchen saw a decrease in line drive and ground ball percentages, which would support a fall in BABIP. Additionally, his Hard% fell nearly 4%, while his Soft% rose more than 6%, which also supports a lower BABIP. McCutchen did turn 30 years old in 2016, and if he continues to trend in this direction, it is unlikely he will rebound in 2017.

The Pirates overhauled their rotation last year, and a key to their 2017 will be how this new rotation performs over a full season. Ivan Nova posted a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts with the Pirates after turning in a 4.90 ERA in 21 games with the New York Yankees.

Jameson Taillon, the Pirates 2010 first round pick and five time Baseball America Top 100 prospect, broke out in the second half of 2016. Over his first 18 MLB starts, Taillon posted a 3.38 ERA while walking less than 5% of batters faced.

Tyler Glasnow, ranked the 6^th best prospect by Baseball America in July of 2016, earned his first taste of big league action last season. In 103 minor league appearances, Glasnow owns an impressive 2.03 ERA. He is expected to be another major contributor in the Pirates rotation next season. If these X-factors continue their strong performance, the rotation will be a major strength for Pittsburgh.

Pirates third baseman Jung Ho Kang made headlines in December after being arrested for his involvement in a DUI in South Korea. While the MLB needs no more reminders of the tragedies that can result from this behavior, it also leaves a cloud over his status in 2017.

After a brutal 2016 season, the Cincinnati Reds hope to develop their young talent.

The Reds struggled mightily last year, and should again provide opportunities for the St. Louis Cardinals to feast in 2017.

Cincinnati Reds, key addition: Drew Storen

Cincinnati Reds, key loss: Dan Straily

The lack of moves in Cincinnati is fairly unsurprising. While the Brandon Phillips trade rumors have flew around again this year, it is unlikely that he wants to be moved. News broke that he used his no-trade clause to block a November move that would have sent him to the Atlanta Braves. While Atlanta is certainly not a contender, they are farther along the rebuilding process than the Reds.

Additionally, the Reds are unwilling to move first baseman Joey Votta, who would be a perennial MVP candidate if he were on a team winning more games. Despite a slow start, Votto still posted a 163 wRC+, good for third in the MLB and first in the NL.

Furthermore, Votto is under contract through 2023 with an option for 2024. He has made it clear that he wants to stay a Red for the remainder of his career. Moreover, his elite abilities at the plate are likely to age well, so there is little incentive for the Reds to try to move him to maximize his trade value. If the Reds are contenders again in a few years, Votto will likely still be their best player.

The main question heading into 2017 for the Reds relates to their starting pitching. Cincinnati used 15 starters last year, with only three accumulating more than even 70 innings. Dan Straily, who led the team with 183 innings, was recently traded to the Miami Marlins.

Of the starters who remain, Anthony DeSclafani looks to head the rotation. Last year, a 3.28 ERA on his way to a 2.0 fWAR campaign. Brandon Finnegan will likely take a second spot in the rotation, which leaves the three remaining spots up for grabs. Given their youth and inexperience, it is very possible that Cincinnati takes a similar committee-like approach again in 2017.

I previously noted that Reds pitching was especially homer prone in 2016, and regression in that area would bode well for the teams development next season. The extent to which the Reds can expect to improve in that area is unknown, but the experience the young pitchers got in last year should only help them in 2017.

Embed from Getty Images

The Milwaukee Brewers have the potential to surprise in the NL Central.

While the rivalry with the Brewers has subsided with the resurgence of the Cubs and recent success from Pittsburgh, they could be a thorn in the side of the St. Louis Cardinals this year.

Milwaukee Brewers, key additions: Neftali Feliz, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Milwaukee Brewers, key losses: Chris Carter

The Milwaukee Brewers were the most active of the three teams which finished below .500 in the NL Central last season. While the projections see them declining in 2017, I believe their roster has the potential to surprise.

More from St Louis Cardinals News

• MVP voter listed Cardinals’ Arenado 8th on ballot
• St. Louis Cardinals non-tender former All-Star closer Alex Reyes
• St. Louis Cardinals sign Oscar Mercado and four others to MiLB deals
• St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt named 2022 NL MVP
• Lars Nootbaar is a prime Cardinals trade candidate

The rotation figures to be a strength of the Brewers, as all five starters are expected to return. Rookies Zach Davies and Junior Guerra surprised in 2016, and finished first and second among Brewers pitchers in fWAR. Both Matt Garza and Wily Peralta continued to provide a veteran presence, while Jimmy Nelson took a step in the wrong direction.

The Brewers bullpen was an asset last season, and likely will be again in 2017. The loss of Jeremy Jeffress to free agency was countered with the acquisition of Neftali Feliz. Tyler Thornburg had a dominant breakout campaign and will look to continue building on his success. Additionally, Carlos Torres and Blaine Boyer will again add high quality depth late in games.

The most interesting addition, in my opinion, is Eric Thames. Thames last played in the MLB in 2012 with the Seattle Mariners where he struggled as a part time player. However, he has played the last three years in Korea in the same league where Seung-Hwan Oh began his career.

Over the last three seasons in the KBO, Thames has mashed for a .349 average with 124 home runs. His overall slash line in this period rings in at an astounding .349/.457/.688. For comparison, Pittsburgh third baseman Jung Ho Kang held a .298/.383/.504 line in nine KBO seasons.

While St. Louis Cardinals fans should expect to see a lot of Ryan Braun again in 2017, it might be Jonathan Villar who will hurt the Cardinals most. Villar registered 3.0 fWAR in a breakout 2016 season, compared to 3.2 fWAR from Ryan Braun. He showed an exceptional ability to get on base, hitting .285 while also walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances.

Next: A Look at the Michael Wacha Arbitration Case

While the Cubs make the most headlines in the NL Central, there is plenty to be excited about in the division. The St. Louis Cardinals, on paper, look to be the second best team in the NL Central. Hopefully, that would earn them a playoff spot. However, they do have the potential to compete for the division title if they can take advantage of their opportunities against their division rivals.