St. Louis Cardinals: National League Central Division Preview

The Chicago Cubs set out to repeat as both division and World Series champions.

The goal for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017, like every year, is to win the NL Central division. So, how do they stack up against the team they’re hoping to dethrone?

Chicago Cubs, key additions: Wade Davis, Koji Uehara, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Jay

Chicago Cubs, key losses: Aroldis Chapman, Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler

While the Cubs lost Chapman, their closer and one of the best relievers in baseball, they may have actually improved their bullpen. Over the last three seasons, Wade Davis has held opponents to a .211 wOBA and owns a 1.18 ERA. In the same period, opposing hitters have managed a .221 wOBA against Chapman, leading to a 1.78 ERA.

Wade Davis will presumably take over closer duties for Chicago. Last season, Davis accumulated 27 saves in his first year as a full-time closer. Notably, Wade Davis’ health is a concern for Chicago. Last year, he hit the disabled list twice with what was diagnosed as a forearm strain.

Related Story: Comparing the Cards and Cubs Starting Rotations

To add some insurance, the Cubs acquired Koji Uehara. The 42-year-old reliever spent the last four seasons with the Boston Red Sox. While Uehara saw his ERA jump more than a run from 2015 to 2016, his strikeout rate actually improved to 34.2%. Additionally, while Uehara’s walk rate was a “career worst,” his 6.0% BB% in 2016 raises little concern.

The Cubs lineup structure will see the most overhaul next season after losing Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler this offseason. Jon Jay will likely begin the season as the Cubs starting center fielder, with the potential to platoon with Albert Almora, a former Baseball America top prospect.

Additionally, Kyle Schwarber will return to the Cubs lineup after missing most of 2016 with an ACL injury. He figures to factor in at left field, as well at catcher. Either way, his presence in the lineup adds a potent bat to an order that already includes Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, among others.

While the Cubs offense received the most attention last season, their defense may have been just as important. The Cubs team defense ranked first in the MLB, with their 69.0 Defensive Runs Above Average nearly 16 runs better than the second best San Francisco Giants.

The Cubs lost an average or slightly better defensive centerfielder in Fowler. Additionally, Schwarber will have to play the field to hit. How he bounces back defensively from the year lost to injury will be a key for the Cubs.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates are better than we think.

After three straight seasons as the St. Louis Cardinals top competition in the NL Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates struggled to a sub-.500 record in 2016.

Pittsburgh Pirates, key additions: Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon

Pittsburgh Pirates, key losses: Matt Joyce

Interestingly, the Pirates will enter the 2017 season with essentially the same roster as 2016. Pittsburgh is banking on rebound seasons from their core players, including Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, and Josh Harrison. While the Pirates were rumored to be in multiple discussions to trade franchise icon Andrew McCutchen, it is unlikely that they will make a major move at this point.

Gerrit Cole, after emerging as an ace in 2015, struggled last season. Cole fought with triceps tightness after leaving a June contest with the St. Louis Cardinals and accumulated only 116 innings over 21 starts. His ERA jumped to 3.88, while his strikeout rate dropped approximately 20%.

Andrew McCutchen’s struggles at the plate largely resulted from a decline in batted ball success. His .297 BABIP was far below his career mark of .331, and his worst since a .291 mark in 2011. While McCutchen’s average exit velocity dropped from 91.3 MPH in 2015 to 90.3 MPH in 2016, he may still have suffered poor batted ball luck last year.

McCutchen saw a decrease in line drive and ground ball percentages, which would support a fall in BABIP. Additionally, his Hard% fell nearly 4%, while his Soft% rose more than 6%, which also supports a lower BABIP. McCutchen did turn 30 years old in 2016, and if he continues to trend in this direction, it is unlikely he will rebound in 2017.

The Pirates overhauled their rotation last year, and a key to their 2017 will be how this new rotation performs over a full season. Ivan Nova posted a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts with the Pirates after turning in a 4.90 ERA in 21 games with the New York Yankees.

Jameson Taillon, the Pirates 2010 first round pick and five time Baseball America Top 100 prospect, broke out in the second half of 2016. Over his first 18 MLB starts, Taillon posted a 3.38 ERA while walking less than 5% of batters faced.

Tyler Glasnow, ranked the 6^th best prospect by Baseball America in July of 2016, earned his first taste of big league action last season. In 103 minor league appearances, Glasnow owns an impressive 2.03 ERA. He is expected to be another major contributor in the Pirates rotation next season. If these X-factors continue their strong performance, the rotation will be a major strength for Pittsburgh.

Pirates third baseman Jung Ho Kang made headlines in December after being arrested for his involvement in a DUI in South Korea. While the MLB needs no more reminders of the tragedies that can result from this behavior, it also leaves a cloud over his status in 2017.

After a brutal 2016 season, the Cincinnati Reds hope to develop their young talent.

The Reds struggled mightily last year, and should again provide opportunities for the St. Louis Cardinals to feast in 2017.

Cincinnati Reds, key addition: Drew Storen

Cincinnati Reds, key loss: Dan Straily

The lack of moves in Cincinnati is fairly unsurprising. While the Brandon Phillips trade rumors have flew around again this year, it is unlikely that he wants to be moved. News broke that he used his no-trade clause to block a November move that would have sent him to the Atlanta Braves. While Atlanta is certainly not a contender, they are farther along the rebuilding process than the Reds.

Additionally, the Reds are unwilling to move first baseman Joey Votta, who would be a perennial MVP candidate if he were on a team winning more games. Despite a slow start, Votto still posted a 163 wRC+, good for third in the MLB and first in the NL.

Furthermore, Votto is under contract through 2023 with an option for 2024. He has made it clear that he wants to stay a Red for the remainder of his career. Moreover, his elite abilities at the plate are likely to age well, so there is little incentive for the Reds to try to move him to maximize his trade value. If the Reds are contenders again in a few years, Votto will likely still be their best player.

The main question heading into 2017 for the Reds relates to their starting pitching. Cincinnati used 15 starters last year, with only three accumulating more than even 70 innings. Dan Straily, who led the team with 183 innings, was recently traded to the Miami Marlins.

Of the starters who remain, Anthony DeSclafani looks to head the rotation. Last year, a 3.28 ERA on his way to a 2.0 fWAR campaign. Brandon Finnegan will likely take a second spot in the rotation, which leaves the three remaining spots up for grabs. Given their youth and inexperience, it is very possible that Cincinnati takes a similar committee-like approach again in 2017.

I previously noted that Reds pitching was especially homer prone in 2016, and regression in that area would bode well for the teams development next season. The extent to which the Reds can expect to improve in that area is unknown, but the experience the young pitchers got in last year should only help them in 2017.

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The Milwaukee Brewers have the potential to surprise in the NL Central.

While the rivalry with the Brewers has subsided with the resurgence of the Cubs and recent success from Pittsburgh, they could be a thorn in the side of the St. Louis Cardinals this year.

Milwaukee Brewers, key additions: Neftali Feliz, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames

Milwaukee Brewers, key losses: Chris Carter

The Milwaukee Brewers were the most active of the three teams which finished below .500 in the NL Central last season. While the projections see them declining in 2017, I believe their roster has the potential to surprise.

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The rotation figures to be a strength of the Brewers, as all five starters are expected to return. Rookies Zach Davies and Junior Guerra surprised in 2016, and finished first and second among Brewers pitchers in fWAR. Both Matt Garza and Wily Peralta continued to provide a veteran presence, while Jimmy Nelson took a step in the wrong direction.

The Brewers bullpen was an asset last season, and likely will be again in 2017. The loss of Jeremy Jeffress to free agency was countered with the acquisition of Neftali Feliz. Tyler Thornburg had a dominant breakout campaign and will look to continue building on his success. Additionally, Carlos Torres and Blaine Boyer will again add high quality depth late in games.

The most interesting addition, in my opinion, is Eric Thames. Thames last played in the MLB in 2012 with the Seattle Mariners where he struggled as a part time player. However, he has played the last three years in Korea in the same league where Seung-Hwan Oh began his career.

Over the last three seasons in the KBO, Thames has mashed for a .349 average with 124 home runs. His overall slash line in this period rings in at an astounding .349/.457/.688. For comparison, Pittsburgh third baseman Jung Ho Kang held a .298/.383/.504 line in nine KBO seasons.

While St. Louis Cardinals fans should expect to see a lot of Ryan Braun again in 2017, it might be Jonathan Villar who will hurt the Cardinals most. Villar registered 3.0 fWAR in a breakout 2016 season, compared to 3.2 fWAR from Ryan Braun. He showed an exceptional ability to get on base, hitting .285 while also walking in 11.6% of his plate appearances.

Next: A Look at the Michael Wacha Arbitration Case

While the Cubs make the most headlines in the NL Central, there is plenty to be excited about in the division. The St. Louis Cardinals, on paper, look to be the second best team in the NL Central. Hopefully, that would earn them a playoff spot. However, they do have the potential to compete for the division title if they can take advantage of their opportunities against their division rivals.