St. Louis Cardinals: MLB Draft Preview Part 1

The St. Louis Cardinals will have a new scouting director in charge of their MLB Draft for the second straight year. How can they follow up last year’s great draft?

First of all, I want to apologize to you guys, as I planned to have this out way earlier than today. However, with staffing issues and a new job, time hasn’t been readily available for me lately.

Last season, the St. Louis Cardinals had a major focus on drafting position players with the majority of their first few picks. I would expect the St. Louis Cardinals20/60 to continue to do this as they attempt to stock the cupboards of their minor league system.

What I will be doing here is going over a few options the Cardinals will be considering with their first-round selection. After this piece, I will look at the options the Cardinals have for their compensation round picks that they acquired from the Cubs for the signing of Jason Heyward and John Lackey. The acquisition of these two picks has given them a pool of $9.1 Million to work with in the draft.

#1 1B Will Benson

Age: 18

Hits/Throws: L/L

School: The Westminster Schools Atlanta (Atlanta, GA)

Scout Grades: Hit: 20/50 | Game Power: 20/60 | Raw Power: 60/65 | Speed: 60/55  | Field: 45/50+ | Arm: 60/60

What do we know: 

Benson is a talented kid coming from the Atlanta area. Given he is from the Atlanta area, it has brought him Jason Heyward comparisons. This makes sense as Benson’s swing is somewhat similar to Heyward’s as it is short and compact. What there is to like about Benson is the upside, he has a big strong frame and he looks quite filled in for a guy who is just 18.

As he gets older he will only improve upon his size and will rely on that as he grows. He has a nice swing that should fill in for plus power from first base.

While he is listed as a first baseman and an outfielder, Benson simply doesn’t look to have the arm to play OF well, so he is much better suited to play first. This is obviously a position in which the Cardinals are not only thin at the major league level but thin on throughout the system as well.

Kiley McDaniel previewed Benson last July saying this, “The bat speed is premium, producing echoes throughout the USA Baseball training complex whenever he squared up in batting practice.  The plate approach is raw and he’s very pull-oriented at this stage of his development, but the tools are loud and his performance validated them.”

Last season, we saw the Cardinals focus on bat speed with their draft and they also took some risks early with Nick Plummer and Bryce Denton being guys that they grabbed out of high school. If Benson is available, I would highly expect the Cardinals to jump at the opportunity to draft him, as the upside is incredibly high.

Next: Logan Shore

#2 SP Logan Shore 6’2″ 215 lbs

Age: 21

Hits/Throws: R/R

School: University of Florida

Scout Grades:  FB: 50/55 | SL: 45/50+ | CH 55/60+ | Command 45/50+

What do we know:

Of all of the college arms that will be available around the time of the Cardinals’ first round selection, Logan Shore is absolutely the most polished arm. Shore has something that not many young pitchers have and that is a repeatable delivery. His delivery is almost like Stephen Strasburg’s but with more snap to it.

Shore is a guy who doesn’t rely on the best of stuff, but much like current Cardinals’ top prospect Jack Flaherty, Shore possesses excellent command for a guy his age. This will absolutely help him work his way through the farm system of the team in which he is drafted.

Shore is a guy who routinely sits in the 91-93 MPH range with his fastball while occasionally touching 94. Looking at his release and his frame, it is not crazy to eventually see him get to the 94-96 range consistently. Along with this, Shore has an absolutely world-beating changeup that Red Baron says is “among the very best single offerings, period”.

As Red Baron mentions, Shore is very much similar to Michael Wacha and Marco Gonzales — in that he is a polished college arm with a repertoire of a good fastball/changeup but with average breaking pitches.

Shore is absolutely a polished pitcher, but he is going to need to refine his breaking pitches to at all effective at the major league level. Minor League Ball does mention that he has improved his slider this season as it was a fairly ineffective pitch his first two years at Florida.

Overall, Shore has been very effective at Florida. According to Baseball Cube, He has established a 26-10 record with a 2.45 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 7.17 K/9. However, if there was one number that has me concerned, it is his H/9. His career number as a Gator has been 7.70, and it is something that has decreased with each season. Compared to his teammate A.J. Puk, who has a 6.82 in his Florida career.

This isn’t a great concern, but it is something that relates to Shore’s lack of  “dynamite stuff”.

Overall, I really like Shore and if the Cardinals go with a college pitcher here (I don’t want them to), this is the guy to get if he is available at pick #23.

Next: Alex Kirilloff

#4 SP Reggie Lawson 6’3″ 213 lbs

Age: 18

Hits/Throws: R/R

School: Victor Valley High School (California)

Scout Grade: FB: 55/60 | CB: 50/55+ | CH 40/50 | Command 40/50+

What do we know:

Lawson is a strong righthander with a frame that screams projectability. At 6’3″ (some say 6’4″), he is a kid who is just starting to fill out his frame. Most believe that Lawson has great potential, and he has shown the ability to improve.

Lawson brings to the table three pitches (Fastball, Curveball, and Changeup) with his fastball easily being his best pitch as Fangraphs has it at a 55/60 grade pitch right now. As Fangraphs mentions, this pitch sits in 90-94 MPH range, and Lawson hasn’t been able to get above 94 with that pitch.

The impressive thing about this fastball is that MLB Top Prospects has this as a “hard-running, two-seam fastball”. This is a pitch that screams Cardinals, as it is a pitch that he should likely rack up a ton of ground balls on.

Rivera Blues mentions that there is some slight concern with his delivery, but that it is not something that can’t be fixed. With their prowess in pitching, the Cardinals would be a good fit and could potentially be one of the teams that he decides to forgo college for.

There is some concern that Lawson could be a tough sign given his commitment to Arizona State. However, the Cardinals do have their large pool to work with this year and they could potentially convince a guy like Lawson by paying slightly over slot and grabbing a college player or two in the supplemental round.

Next: Nolan Jones

#5 SS/3B Nolan Jones 6’4″ 216 lbs

Age: 17

Hits/Throws: L/R

School: Holy Ghost Prep (Pennsylvania)

Scout Grade: Hit: 20/50+ | Game Power: 20/50+ | Raw Power: 50/60 | Speed: 50/45 | Field: 45/50+ | Arm: 55/55

What do we know:

If you had to pick one player who could be the player with the most bang for buck or potential for success in the middle first, Nolan Jones would absolutely be it. Even though both Fangraphs and Baseball America have Jones ranked as the 16th best player available, there is still a potential he falls to the Cardinals. MLB Top Prospects believes this is a possibility, as they have him slotted to the Cardinals in their latest Mock Draft. 

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According to Fangraphs, Jones future grades are pretty tantalizing. He has a 50 Future Value Hit tool and a 50+ FV “Game Power” tool. Jones currently possesses an impressive 50 grade “Raw Power” tool. However, one of the more impressive tools that make Jones all the more interesting is that he is rated as a 45-grade fielder with 55 future value. His arm is 55 across the board, but with refinement and a move to third it could be better.

Watching him swing the bat shows his tremendous bat speed and his frame that screams projectability. Red Baron has this to say about his bat speed, “That bat speed translates to big-time raw power, and even more impressively, to opposite-field raw power, which I tend to think of as one of the best predictors of future success in a young hitter. He can go gap-to-gap as well as any hitter in his age group…”

Next: When will Alex Reyes return?

Much like Kirilloff, players like Jones do not grow on trees. They are the type of players that you take advantage of this early in the draft. These are the players that the club has to take a shot at much like they did with Nick Plummer and Bryce Denton last year. While him lasting to the Cardinals may be a hope and a dream at this point, if he is available this is a no-brainer pick.

These are just a handful of guys that could go to the Cardinals at #23. I very well could be wrong (like I was last season), but this is who I would select in their position. I’ll get into who they should select with their compensation picks next week! Thanks for reading.

All Scouting Grades via Fangraphs