St. Louis Cardinals: Five Things to Watch in First Chicago Series

How are the Cardinal defectors received in their first trip back to Busch?

We all know how just about every other former Cardinal has been welcomed back to Busch Stadium in the past.

But will things stay warm and friendly with the latest Cardinals-gone-rogue? What will the crowd response be when Jason Heyward and John Lackey have their names called over the PA system for the first time?

We aren’t going to have to wait long to find out the answer to each of those questions tonight.

Lackey throws game one here tonight for Chicago, meaning he’ll have his name announced with the starting lineup.

Heyward figures to see his first plate appearance in the top of the first, as he’s hit primarily out of the two-hole for Joe Maddon‘s club.

Lackey is 2-0 on the young season, sporting a 5.68 ERA in 12 2/3 innings thus far. Interestingly, Lackey has never made a start against the Cardinals in the regular season. His only start against the Redbirds came in a clinching World Series Game Six when he was with Boston in 2013.

Jason Heyward is slashing .205/.314/.250 through the seasons first two weeks. He’s yet to hit a home run, although he has driven in seven runs and has drawn six walks in 51 plate appearances.

Heyward seems to be the natural target of the boo-birds tonight, given the failed attempt by the Cardinals at a long-term relationship with the superstar(ish) right fielder.

Equally, Lackey’s antics on the mound were somewhat tolerable when he was in a Cardinal uniform. I don’t think they would be received quite as well with the baby bear on his chest.

You could say that Lackey has something of a legitimate beef after his contract situation in 2015 and I wouldn’t disagree with you.

That’s all the more reason why he should be amped up making his second start against the club he beat to win the 2013 World Series, and pitched for a season ago.

Maybe we see some fireworks.

Next: Cards Starting Pitching vs. Chicago's Lineup

Cardinal Starting Rotation vs. Chicago Lineup

The Cardinals will send Mike Leake to the hill tonight, followed by Jaime Garcia in Game Two and Carlos Martinez in the finale.

Leake has struggled in April after turning in a strong spring down in Jupiter. Leake has surrendered four earned runs in each of his two starts, going 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in 10 1/3 innings.

Tonight’s start could be a big one (good or bad) in terms of the direction that Leake is headed as the Cardinals’ fifth starter.

Jaime Garcia, our game two starter, is coming off of one of the best performances in all of Major League Baseball thus far in 2016, and arguably the best of his career.

All Jaime did last time out was strike out 13 Milwaukee hitters en route to his first complete game shutout since he had two in his first eight starts back in 2011.

He carried a no hitter into the sixth, and finished the game with a single walk issue as well as a single hit allowed.

The Chicago lineup figures to challenge Jaime a bit more than those Brewers did, though.

Carlos Martinez will close things out for the Cards on Wednesday. He’s been the same filthy “Tsunamy” in 2016 as he was a season ago, en route to an early 2-0 record.

Were it not for one mistake pitch in his last start on Friday against Joey Votto and the Reds, he very well could have been on his way to a “Jaime-like” performance of his own.

Carlos is 2-0 in his career against Chicago with fairly high ERA (4.55) and WHIP (1.453) values in 31 2/3 innings pitched.

The Cubs are second to the Cardinals in runs scored so far in 2016, and their team OBP of .356 ranks third behind St. Louis (.362) and Pittsburgh (.385).

The Cubs are coming off of a 2-0 shutout loss to the Rockies at home in a series that they lost two of three.

Between the Cubs’ five middle-of-the-order bats, Ben Zobrist, Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler, they have struck out 47 times in 201 at-bats.

Soler has the highest average of those five, checking in at .235.

It’s pretty simple, really, keep those big bats down and don’t let them break out against us. Leake needs to really step up and set the tone in game one tonight.

Next: How much Hazelbaker/Diaz?

How much do we see Jeremy Hazelbaker and Aledmys Diaz?

Well, after a blistering first eight or so games to start his Major League career, Jeremy Hazelbaker’s batting average is down to a measly .394 after an 0-6 stretch over the weekend.

He seems to be cooling off (understandably) from his torrid start, but the fact still remains that he leads the club in OPS and Slugging (save Eric Fryer‘s impressive afternoon on Sunday.)

His speed is an obvious asset, and the Cardinals don’t have to face lefty John Lester in the series.

Does Mike Matheny give Hazelbaker a start in the outfield tonight against another club that’s never seen him before in Chicago, or does he favor the suddenly red hot Brandon Moss, who leads the club with four home runs?

If Matheny’s lineups so far in 2016 serve as any indicator, it’s a pretty safe bet that he’s going to stay with the hot hand, which happens to be Moss more so than Hazelbaker at the moment.

Even so, Hazelbaker still figures to be the first left-handed bat off of the bench, and he could very easily get a start in the getaway 1:45 CST series finale on Wednesday.

Next topic, Cardinal shortstop Aledmys Diaz, who is hitting a middling .406 himself going into play tonight.

To complicate matters, Ruben Tejada makes his return to the club from the DL tonight. Greg Garcia got the boot to Memphis, and it seems like we have a two-man rotation of Tejada and Diaz forming at shortstop.

How much of a platoon or starter/backup situation that becomes has a lot to do with what Aledmys Diaz does (or does not do) with the bat.

There’s no way Matheny throws Tejada right back in tonight with Diaz swinging the hottest stick on a red hot offensive unit.

As far as I’m concerned, Tejada is the backup to Diaz, a utility man alongside Jedd Gyorko. Of course, an 0-8, 0-10 type stretch out of Diaz at the dish could change that outlook pretty quickly.

Diaz had better make sure he stays focused defensively, too. Don’t take a step back and boot a couple of balls in the series.

I firmly expect Diaz to start, at minimum, each of the first two games against Chicago, with the finale on Wednesday as a wild card based on how he’s performed and how Tejada has been used in the series.

Next: Chicago's Bullpen vs. St. Louis' Bench

Chicago’s Bullpen vs. St. Louis’ Bench

If there was a real glaring question mark ahead of 2016 for Chicago, it had to be the back end of their bullpen.

A season ago, the Cubs converted just 48 of 67 save opportunities. Their bullpen ERA, according to FanGraphs, was 3.38 in 2015. Both of those numbers were still in the top half of baseball, but were far from dominant.

Still to this day, the one true memory that stands out about Chicago’s pen in 2015 is the game-winning home run that Pedro Strop gave up to Jhonny Peralta at Wrigley last July.

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The Cub’s eighth and ninth inning guys, Strop and Hector Rondon have been good thus far, allowing just a single run combined in eight innings. Rondon has converted a pair of save opportunities.

In the middle innings, Adam Warren and Neil Ramirez have yet to allow a run over 6 2/3 innings of their own.

The Cubs bullpen has been good over the small sample size that has been the 2016 season.

On the other side, the St. Louis bench has done historic things through two weeks of baseball action.

For starters, the Cardinals got three pinch-hit home runs (Hazelbaker, Diaz, Garcia) for the first time in the history of Major League baseball back on April 8th against Atlanta.

Starting with that Friday evening, Cardinal pinch-hitters have combined to go 8-15 with six home runs and 9 RBI since.

That’s ridiculous.

We might just be in for some late-innings fireworks, a la Pedro Strop/Jhonny Peralta 2015.

There Should be plenty of late-innings drama, nonetheless.

Next: Who's taking early season momentum?

Who’s going to make an early season statement?

In the same way that Pittsburgh made a statement when they stepped in and swept us to start the year, somebody is going to make a statement within the Central in this mid-April matchup.

Yes, I know that we play the Cubs (and Pirates) 19 times in 2016. Even with an early season setback, there will plenty of business to be handled on the baseball field all summer long.

But, having success against each of the other two squads in that three-headed NL Central monster is going to be vital to each team’s chances of taking the division crown.

The Pirates dealt the Cards a setback in the Pittsburgh cold a couple of weeks ago, regardless of how ready either team might have been after moving from the Florida heat to the Pittsburgh freeze box.

The Cardinals don’t want to dig a hole with the Cubs, too, and the Cubs want to jump on the Cards to follow up on their NLDS victory last fall.

It’s going to be high-drama baseball all season long between these three, as they should all have healthy records from feasting on the National League bottom-feeders throughout the summer.

The Cardinals won the season series with Chicago last year by a count of 11-8. The Cards won 7 of 10 at Busch Stadium, the site (obviously) of tonight’s series opener.

The media hype is here, and it is full of Cubs love. That’s just the way this thing is going to be. The Cubs are the latest craze, everybody has to give their two cents on how great they think are.

Here in a matter of mere hours, the Cubs and Cards will kick off what should be a fantastic  season series between two NL Central powers.

Next: Chicago series a big test for the 2016 Cardinals

P.S.

Of course there’s the whole Blues/Blackhawks thing going on between the two fan bases as well. To that, I have just one thing to say: Let’s Go Blues!!!