St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case 2016: Stephen Piscotty

Best Case: Lots of doubles, lots of RBI’s, lots of scenes like in the image above

I think that Stephen Piscotty is a 40 doubles a year kind of a hitter. He has enough power to be a 25-30 home run guy, as well. While I think it would be a bit overzealous to EXPECT Piscotty to approach 30 long balls in 2016, in a best-case scenario, that is a very reachable figure.

Piscotty’s swing is so simple and compact. He is capable of hitting to all fields. He is the closest thing to a pure gap hitter as the Cards have had since Pujols (although he hit bombs, in addition to those gaps).

Piscotty is at his best when he is driving the ball back up the middle or into the right-center field gap. Because he is so advanced at spraying the ball to all fields, I think that he is as “slump proof” as any Cardinal bat in the lineup.

In addition, Piscotty is faster than he looks out there. Both out in right field and on the base paths. Piscotty has already stolen three bases this spring, after swiping just two in his two-and-a-half month stint with the big club in 2015.

If Mike Matheny lets Piscotty go out there a little bit on the base paths, 20-25 steals becomes a very reachable figure.

With all of that very scientific analysis, I’ve come up with the following numbers for Biscotti’s best-case 2016 stat line:

.309/.374/.494 with 27 home runs, 103 RBI, 42 doubles, and 23 stolen bases.

Those would most certainly be All-Star numbers and would likely earn Piscotty MVP considerations. Likewise, I would be very surprised if the Chicago Cubs right fielder (I’m talking about Heyward) approached numbers like that this year, even if he does have hitter-friendly Wrigley Field on his side.

Next: Worst Case: Injury? Regression in a full season?

Worst Case: A bite from the injury bug? A regression in Piscotty’s first full season of at-bats?

Well, we got ourselves a nice scare yesterday with Piscotty at the dish. He took a high and tight fastball off of the forearm/elbow area in a 14-9 Cardinals victory over the Mets. All x-rays came back negative, and Piscotty will just have to deal with the bruising and swelling.

After the Peralta problem last week, plus all of 2015 taken into consideration, you cannot help but think of the worst when any sort of injury pops up with this squad.

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While Piscotty hasn’t been injury-prone thus far in his career, the point is that you never know who could be next. Let’s all participate in a collective knocking on wood, so that we can free ourselves of any injury jinxes this year.

That feels so much better.

In a more likely worst-case, Piscotty could simply experience struggles in maneuvering his first 162-game schedule in St. Louis. While I see Piscotty as the most consistent Cardinal bat going forward, I could have said the same about Allen Craig back in 2012 or 2013.

Baseball is such a strange game. You cannot take anything for granted, whether it’s good health or assuming that a guy will perform based on how he’s been in the past.

While I see it as a very unlikely scenario, there is always the possibility that Piscotty struggles with full-time right field duties, leaving the Cards with a glaring hole in their outfield.

Next: My Prediction

My Prediction: A very solid campaign for the new Cardinal mainstay in right field

I think Piscotty is going to have a very, very good season in 2016. I don’t think he is going to put up MVP-worthy numbers or anything like that. I just think that he is going to be an extremely reliable bat in the St. Louis lineup, and I think that he can open a few eyes with his defensive ability.

Really, I’d be surprised if Piscotty eclipsed the 20 home run mark. I don’t think Piscotty needs to jack home runs to be a productive bat for the Cardinals.

I like Piscotty to finish in the 15-20 home run range, and I think he’s good for 90 RBI and 90 runs scored.

I’d expect a batting average of at least .290, with the .300 mark as a real possibility.

Double-digit steals seems totally justifiable, although I don’t see Piscotty going out and stealing 30 bags or anything like that.

In short, Piscotty isn’t going to wow with any of his statistical figures. He’s just going to be another solid Cardinal bat, much like his buddies Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday.

Next: St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case: Shortstops

I like Piscotty as an offensive upgrade to Heyward in right, and while there’s no way to expect the defensive performance that Heyward would bring, I still think Piscotty will open some eyes with very solid defense in 2016.