St. Louis Cardinals: Who’s next to be injured?

Spring Training (and Star Wars Night) has been a tough time of year for the St. Louis Cardinals.  Each of the past two seasons, Spring Training has hurt the Cardinals, literally. Already having lost Jhonny Peralta, who could be next?

While there is certainly no discernible way to predict an injury, the St. Louis Cardinals are no stranger to facing this beast during Spring Training.  During Spring Training last year, the Cardinals lost Tommy Pham to a quad injury and Jaime Garcia to a shoulder injury.  This week, fans were greeted with the news of the Jhonny Peralta injury.

What is going on with the Cardinals and Spring Training?  Better yet, with so many health-questionable players on the roster, it is well within reason to wonder who might be next to climb aboard the injury train.  Before diving into the possibilities, if you are seeking a discussion of what to do next about Peralta, I recommend you read Landon Clapp’s best and worst case scenarios.

In 2015, the Cardinals had ten players fall on the DL accounting for a loss of 764 days.  Will this continue in 2016? This piece will examine the potential starting 25-man roster, looking at past injuries and whether or not these injuries make for a greater propensity of disabled list trips.

Next: Position Players

2016 Pitchers

In the previous slide, I examined the position players who landed on the disabled list in 2015.  These players filled spots one through four of the ten players on the team who appeared on the DL in 2015.  If you are good at math, this means that six (yes, 6!) pitchers on the Cardinals were injury-prone in 2015.

Adam Wainwright

In 2015, the 33-year-old Wainwright started the season in strong fashion but suffered the (projected) season-ending Achilles injury early in the season.  This injury actually landed him on the DL for a total of 159 days.  Wainwright was determined to return in 2015, and did.  His start to 2016 seems strong, but should fans worry about a weak leg?

Jaime Garcia

Like Pham before him, Garcia is a player who fans could label as “oft-injured”, and with good reason.  Jaime spent 84 days on the disabled list in 2015 due to both groin and arm injuries.  Arm injuries for a pitcher are terrifying and provide reason for concern for 2016.  Is Jaime next on the injured bus?

Jordan Walden

Walden, out of the bullpen, found himself on the DL for a total of 160 days (essentially the entire season), thanks to an arm injury.  There are plenty of signs here at the start of 2016 to indicated that Walden seems to be healthy. But again, with pitchers, any arm injury frightens the medical staff and makes fans wonder if continued health is in question.

Mike Leake

While Leake wasn’t yet a Cardinal, he did land on the DL in 2015 and is included in the headcount of the 10 injured last season.  Leake spent 20 days on the DL due to a hamstring injury.  Pitchers require strong leg muscles to power their pitches and fans should wonder about this health moving forward.  In his favor, however, is the brief length of his DL stay and his lack of major DL visits in his career.  But is he next to suffer a surprise injury?

Lance Lynn

It almost doesn’t feel fair to include Lynn on this list since we all know that he is already out this season thanks to the need for Tommy John surgery.  Just a quick note about 2015. We all know that Lynn had many small injuries but- in keeping with this review- Lynn landed on the DL for a total of 18 days due to arm injuries that might have been early indicators of the injury that has eliminated him from the 2016 season.

Carlos Martinez

While Carlos is a stud (even found himself in hot water thanks to his stud-like behaviors on Twitter), he found himself on the DL in 2015 for a total six days due to a nagging shoulder. He was lost for the playoffs thanks to shoulder issues. Will this recur in 2016?

Pitchers are prone to injury due to the torque and stress placed on their bodies to accomplish the feat of chucking a small white ball.  With the loss of Lynn already for 2016, will other pitchers fall?  With the Cardinals’ history of spring training injuries to pitchers, should we expect one of the pitchers listed here to be next to board the injury bus?  Stick around for the next slide to get my prediction.

Next: Prediction

Prediction

By looking at the past, one can make predictions about the future.  This is complicated when it comes to injuries.  Having admitted that, however, I feel that we should be able to determine the likelihood of injuries to our remaining players.

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Let me try to list the ten players examined in this slideshow in order of who I think may be next on this metaphorical injury bus.  Note: I have removed Lance Lynn from contention for this list since he is already out for 2016.

1. Jaime Garcia
2. Matt Holliday
3. Tommy Pham
4. Matt Adams
5. Randal Grichuk
6. Carlos Martinez
7. Jordan Walden
8. Adam Wainwright
9. Mike Leake

Why this order?  For starters, I feel that Jaime is almost always one breathe away from injury, and that one day his arm is literally going to fly off mid-pitch (homage to my cousin for his dream fears).  Second, I feel that Holliday- due in large part to his age- is likely to see additional “small” quad and back injuries.  Finally, Pham- who I do adore- has simply spent the duration of his career battling some injury or another.

Next: Jedd Gyorko Ready For Expanded Role

Let’s all hope that the Cardinals make it through the rest of spring without any further injuries.  Let us also hope that the names listed above remain healthy and produce at the levels we all know they can.  Noting the depth on the roster, I feel that should further injury befall the Cardinals in 2016, that the team will survive the impact.  Follow me on Twitter and let’s watch as the season approaches with our wishes for health and success!