St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case 2016: Shortstops

Best Case: Diaz has lots of 4-4 days, Cards don’t miss a beat at short, Diaz hands the torch back to Peralta for a World Series run

If I would have written this piece a couple of days ago, I doubt that I would give Diaz near as high of a ceiling as I am about to give him. Likewise, a week from now, the outlook could seem a lot different for Diaz and the shortstop position for the Cardinals.

But, I’m writing this on the heels of a big time Spring Training performance from Diaz. That sounded a little ridiculous when I wrote it, so let me rephrase. Diaz did everything he could have (and then more) in easing the minds of Cardinal fans who are still digesting the Peralta news, whether it was “just a Spring Training game” or not.

Diaz has had such great examples before him that he can follow. He’s watched Minor League teammates Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham step in and shine for the Cardinals. Those two played as big a role as anybody in pushing the Cardinals to 100 wins a season ago.

Diaz watched big league mainstays go down last year and he watched his teammates step in and provide huge boosts for the big league club. Now it is his turn. If today’s performance is any indication, I have little doubt that Diaz is the next man to step into impending doom and keep the club afloat.

Of course, though, we are talking best-case fantasy world here! That scenario doesn’t involve Diaz simply keeping the club afloat, it means he does that and then a whole lot more.

In Diaz’s best case, he puts in Piscotty-like numbers from last year while Peralta is gone. Through the April-June months, Diaz hits above .300, gets on base at a .380-.390 clip and hits seven or eight home runs in half a season of baseball.

He gives the Cardinals a huge lift, and he gives Peralta the luxury of really making sure that he is back to 100% before returning.

After that, Peralta steps in fresh and healthy and leads the club in home runs and RBI in the second half of the season. Diaz becomes the clubs second super-utility man (with Jedd Gyorko), and the Cardinals infield depth dwarfs the rest of the National League.

Next: Has Jamaal Charles Lost a Step?

Diaz and others can’t get it done, Peralta returns too soon, fails to produce like he has in the past

Our worst-case scenario is, of course, that nightmare outlook that I’m sure many felt when the Peralta knows broke. Memories of Pete Kozma immediately come to mind, no offense to Pete. What will an already suspect offense look like without it’s power-hitting shortstop?

Diaz looked great today, and he’s been pretty solid so far this spring, but can we really expect him to step into the most competitive division in baseball and lead the defense at shortstop for an extended chunk of the season?

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Gyorko is the man most capable of replicating what Peralta brought to the club, but there are no guarantees as to what the Cardinals will get from him. Plus, his services are going to be needed around the infield, not just at shortstop.

I appreciate Greg Garcia for what his time with St. Louis, but his offensive limitations hold him back from having much shot at an every day job.

Worst case, Diaz makes the club out of camp and then struggles mightily during the regular season. The hit to his confidence is so great that he is never to be seen with the big club again.

With that, Gyorko struggles with the strikeout all season. Feeling pressed in the heated NL Central race, the Cards push Peralta back before he is ready.

Pushing Peralta back either results in him re-injuring the thumb or just lacking the strength with the bat to be the same run producer that he’s been in the past.

Next: Has Jamaal Charles Lost a Step?

My Prediction: Diaz and Co. give the Cards enough at shortstop, hand the keys back to Peralta for another NL Central run

While I don’t expect Diaz to light the world on fire or to be an all-star in his first season with the big club, I do think that he makes the Opening Day roster out of camp. He may not start on Opening Day, but thanks to a stellar spring, he will see plenty of opportunities before Peralta’s return.

I like Diaz for a lot of starts at shortstop against left-handed pitching, with Gyorko sliding over to second base to spell Kolten Wong. Likewise, Diaz is a good candidate to see time at third base whenever Matt Carpenter needs a break.

I expect a very solid defensive effort from Diaz, and think that he will do enough with the bat to stay in the lineup on a fairly routine basis.

The Cardinals are going to miss Peralta’s presence in the lineup, but I definitely think that Diaz and Gyorko together can do enough to keep the club where it needs to be.

Assuming that Peralta returns some time in mid-to-late June, I like Diaz for five or six home runs and an OBP in the .340’s.

I think that double digit home runs for Gyorko through the first couple of months is a definite possibility, although I am wary of the strikeout and potential for a low OBP.

In the end, I think that Cardinal replacement shortstops will be solid enough to remove any temptation to hurry Peralta’s recovery process.

With just a 3-4 month season ahead of him after his return, the Cardinals will be able let Peralta go out there without too much concern for rest.

Next: Should the Cards deal for a shortstop?

If there was ever a good time for Peralta to go down, now is it. So long as Diaz and Gyorko can keep things afloat, the Cardinals and Peralta should be in a good position as they move through the mid-summer months and into stretch-run time.