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St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case 2016: Trevor Rosenthal
The St. Louis Cardinals’ closer notched 40 plus saves again last season. What are the scenarios that could play out for Trevor Rosenthal in 2016?
Trevor Rosenthal is the anchor of the St. Louis Cardinals bullpen. There are no doubts about that.
The closer notched 48 saves last season with a stellar 2.10 ERA and a 2.42 FIP. He also struck out 83 batters in 68.2 innings pitched. Rosenthal’s 48 saves also planted him in the Cardinals’ record books passing Jason Isringhausen and his 47-save season in 2004. Isringhausen was 31 years old when he set that Cardinals record. Rosenthal beat it at 25 years old and only his second season closing for St. Louis.
In fact, Rosenthal is already 5th on the Cardinals all-time saves list, and with another 40-plus save season he has a chance to move ahead of Todd Worrell for sole possession of third place all time. That’s what makes the right hander so special and so exciting.
He’s said differently, but Rosenthal might as well close the book on any thoughts of ever becoming a starter. The hard throwing righty is going to be shutting the door in the ninth inning for many years to come with the Redbirds. The last two years have proven that he is simply too good not to be in that role. The Cardinals need him there, too. For more on this, check out Dan Buffa’s piece on Rosenthal here.
As we look ahead to the start of the 2016 season, what will Rosenthal accomplish this year? Can the young closer continue to ascend the Cardinals record books?
What are the best and worst case scenarios for Rosenthal?
Next: Best Case: Rosenthal Nails Down 50 Saves
Best Case: Rosenthal saves more than 50 games, improves even more
The best case scenario for Rosenthal is that he comes out and improves upon last season by beating his own Cardinals record and saving 50 plus games in 2016. It’s hard to imagine Rosenthal improving upon last season’s numbers, but there is actually some room for growth.
Walks continue to be an issue at times for the 25-year old. In his first season closing for St. Louis in 2014, Rosenthal amassed a 5.4 walks per nine. For those who don’t remember, watching Rosenthal close out games in 2014 called for a couple of beers and plenty of nail biting when the ninth inning rolled around and the Cardinals were only up by a couple of runs. Rosenthal also posted a 1.41 WHIP in 2014, which makes it even more remarkable that the righty was able to close out 45 games. What has saved Rosenthal is the strikeout. Rosy had an 11.1 SO/9 racking, up 87 strikeouts in 70.1 IP.
The good news is Rosenthal did cutdown his free passes in 2015. Rosy walked 25 batters last year compared to 42 in 2014, which was good for a 3.3 BB/9 compared to 5.4 the year before. While he has made progress, the best case scenario for Rosenthal in 2016 is to lower that 3.3 BB/9 to well under 3.0. Of the five closers who saved 40 or more games in 2015, only one had a BB/9 higher than Rosenthal — Brad Boxberger of the Tampa Bay Rays. Pittsburgh Pirates closer Mark Melancon led all of baseball last season with 51 saves, and part of what made the 30-year old so dominant was a stellar 1.64 BB/9.
Now, I’m not discrediting Rosenthal. Of those top five closers last season, Rosy had the highest K/9 with 10.88. Strikeouts are a fantastic weapon, and they have gotten Rosenthal out of trouble when he’s walked a batter or two. Still, it’s not rocket science. The best closers in the game are stingy at walking batters. Plus, if Rosenthal can cut down on the walks even more in 2016, then his 1.27 WHIP from last season (which is still a bit higher than you’d like from your closer) will drop down.
Fifty plus saves would be great, but if Rosenthal can reach that number while also posting a sub 3.0 BB/9 and a sub 1.20 WHIP, then that would be the best case scenario for the young closer in 2016.
So, what is the worst case scenario for Rosenthal?
Next: Worst Case: The Rosy Train Derails
Worst Case: Rosenthal regresses and issues more free passes than ever
Most might believe the worst case scenario for Rosenthal in 2016 would be for his arm to blow out and have to get Tommy John surgery. While that would certainly hurt the Cardinals this season, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen.
The Cardinals have plenty of former closers who could take the reigns for a year if Rosenthal was shelved with Tommy John surgery. And as pessimistic as it sounds, for a guy who throws as hard as Rosenthal the case of having Tommy John surgery may not be if but when. Now, I’m not wishing that upon the closer and hope as much as the next Cardinals fan that he never has to go under the knife. But what would be worst for the Cardinals in 2016 is if Rosenthal did a complete 180 and had his worst statistical season to date.
Imagine the drama and anxiety of those save situations in 2014 and multiply that by about 100. It’s the recipe for disaster, and it would put Cardinals fans in a frenzy and Mike Matheny in a tough situation of having to possibly boot Rosenthal out of the closer role.
Imagine if Rosenthal saved just 30 games this season and had an ERA and FIP over 3.50 as well as a career-high 5.8 BB/9. This would be the worst scenario for the Cardinals because it would leave them with a lot of questions about their all star closer moving forward in his career with St. Louis.
Still there? Shake off those nightmarish thoughts and hang with me. My 2016 prediction for Rosenthal is bright.
Next: My Prediction
My Prediction: Rosenthal continues his rapid pace in the Cardinals’ record books
When Rosenthal burst onto the scene with his breakout campaign in 2013, it was easy to see that the Cardinals had a special pitcher. It was also easy to see that it wouldn’t be long before he would take over that closer role.
I believe Rosenthal will continue his quick ascent in the Cardinals record books with another fantastic season in 2016. While it won’t come easy, I believe the right-hander will notch 51 saves this season moving him into that third place slot on the Cardinals all time saves list with 147. I expect the 25-year old to continue to improve on his walk rate this season by posting a 2.55 BB/9 as well as a 1.11 WHIP.
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Those aren’t unrealistic numbers, either. In 2013, albeit not as the closer, Rosenthal posted a 2.4 BB/9 and a 1.10 WHIP in 75.1 IP. So, the control has been there before for Rosenthal. It’s a matter of continuing to grow into the closer role and calming those nerves each time he takes the mound in the ninth inning for the Cardinals. I’m no major league closer, and I know calming those nerves and locating pitches is easier said than done. But I believe Rosenthal has the wherewithal to do just that in 2016 and become even more dominant moving forward in his career.
Next: St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case: Matt Carpenter
Make no mistake, the Cardinals do indeed have something special with this hard-throwing right hander. So, sit back and enjoy the ride Cardinals fans. I expect Rosenthal to be closing out ballgames in St. Louis for a long time and even passing Izzy’s 217 saves record for the Cardinals by the age of 30.
How about that? What do you think? Drop me a line on Twitter and comment below to share your thoughts.