St. Louis Cardinals: Five Burning Questions

St. Louis Cardinals baseball, albeit exhibition style, has begun. The past week, Cards writers have conducted a Q&A. My answers to burning questions.

Okay, so the St. Louis Cardinals questions weren’t actually burning. My email wasn’t so hot that my computer started to burn. Still, this time of year presents so many questions for a Major League ballclub that needs for info come in droves.

What will a player do this year? What are his expectations? United Cardinal Bloggers is a group of scrappy team writers who dish analytical takes 24/7 and once a year they set up a roundtable. A writer presents a question and the rest(maybe 4-6 people) respond with their take. Here are the questions and my take.

Question from Tom Knuppel/CardinalsGM-Do you believe the Cardinals are overly reliant on unproven to pick up the offensive side of the game in 2016? Why or why not?

My take-With the muscled up competition in the Central and N.L. period, Mo’s philosophy will be put to the test. Does he have enough hitting to support the pitching?

The way the Cardinals are built is getting by with subpar offense and great pitching. The 100 games won is a direct sign of pitching depth, young and “aging”. John Mozeliak and his team favored pitching in the draft for many years and it has shown the past two seasons where the offense has averaged meager outputs. Going forward, Mo seems to be leaning on that philosophy again.

Lance Lynn and John Lackey departed via injury and acquisition. Enter Adam Wainwright and Mike Leake. A healthy Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. Carlos Martinez is throwing bullpen sessions.The arms are all healthy. Jordan Walden’s healthy limb makes the bullpen unreal. Mozeliak has this pitching prepped in case another scoring lapse occurs.

The offense is a band of hypotheticals. “If” is a big word in camp this month. Such as..

If Matt Holliday gets back to 2013-14 production, he is good to go.
If Jhonny Peralta gets more rests, maybe he can get back to 2014.
If Stephen Piscotty hits like he did in 2015 over a full season, Heyward won’t be missed.
If Randal Grichuk just stays healthy….

And it goes on and on. Once Heyward was off the table, I don’t think Mo wanted anything to do with the remaining free agents. As juicy as Yoenis Cespedes looked(and still does to me), Mo put his buffet plate down and went back to the table. He was happy with “his kids”. At the Winter Warmup, Mo preached over and over about the ability of Piscotty and Grichuk to do big things in 2016 and beyond. He talked about the depth Jedd Gyorko provided and how Tommy Pham was looking 100%.

If divisions were won on the amount of players who came into spring training in the best shape of their lives, the Cards would win it today. It doesn’t work that way.

I do think Mozeliak is overly reliant on unproven talent to keep up with the Cubs and everyone else. He isn’t looking at Fangraphs projections for Piscotty and Grichuk. He doesn’t need to. Why? This strategy has worked for him before and often. He favors pitching depth and stated that pursuit right after Heyward signed with the Cubs. If you can’t find the bats you want, accumulate the one thing that wins championships. Pitching. The Cubs understand that. They ran into the Mets buzz saw and couldn’t win a game. Great pitching stops great hitting. That is Mo’s belief and it has worked. Also, if the trade deadline looms and the Cards need an upgrade, Mo will be there to deal. We’ve seen it happen many times before.

While it’s safe to state he is betting on a few more hypotheticals than usual(the OF depth is still scary), it’s hard to fault Mo’s plan. Unlike some GM’s, his success runs back quite a few years.

Next: Infield alignment issues?

With newcomers in the mix, how does the infield line up for the Cards in 2016?

Question from Kevin Reynolds(@deckacards)-With all of that and more in mind, how do you see the Cardinals’ infield alignment, deployment, etc. evolving over the course of this season, keeping in mind the offensive considerations in play as well?

My take-The infield is an interesting place to dissect and here is how I see it playing out.

First base: I don’t think Holliday touches first base this season on the defensive side of the ball. While it’s a nice idea, you have four guys who can play first base if needed. Brandon Moss, Matt Adams, Stephen Piscotty and Matt Carpenter.

Moss will get the bulk of the playing time to start because he has bigger upside than Adams at the moment and if he is back to his 2014 ways, could give the team a much needed dose of power. If Pham and Grichuk go berserk, Piscotty could also see time there. Big City is on his way out. Only problem is, he needs to raise his value. Right now, I don’t see him getting more time than Moss.

Second base: Wong has the starting job, but Gyorko will be a fine backup and also someone who can hammer lefties(.335 OBP, 441 slugging lifetime). Wong played a ton of games in 2015 and got burnt out but saw a lot of his offensive numbers go up. More games helped, but he still put on a decent sophomore campaign. The job is his and he has a slight strangehold on it. It’s not set in stone because Gyorko is here for a few seasons and under contract. In 2016, his presence will prohibit Wong from starting 35 consecutive games.

Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta is the starter, but this is where I can see Gyorko getting more time. Gyorko only got 29 games in at short in 2016 but his bat could play a difference at this position. If Peralta sees another offensive dropoff and if his defense starts to slip, Gyorko could slide in and collect more starts here.

Looking ahead down the road, after Peralta departs, I can see Gyorko fighting Aledmys Diaz for shortstop starting duties until another prospects comes down the pike. Peralta was MIA after the All Star Break, so 2016 will be an interesting trek for him. It’s his job in April, but i can’t be too sure of that come September. I know he shouldn’t hit cleanup.

Third Base: Matt Carpenter. Seriously, all day and night. All summer. With Gyorko helping at second and the first base depth across the diamond, third base is Carp’s. Next to Molina, behind the plate, the only sure thing.

Wildcards: Aledmys Diaz will give Greg Garcia a fine run for his money in spring and first half of 2016. I am not saying Diaz makes the team out of camp, but if he keeps hitting like he has since August, it will be hard to keep him in Memphis. Garcia is a fine bench guy and takes a good at bat, but his shortstop defense was shaky at best and Gyorko prohibits him from getting much time behind Wong. Diaz is someone to watch.

Next: Cards Fantasy Baseball Picks

If you were picking Fantasy Baseball players and needed three Cards, who gets your votes?

Question from Bill Ivie(I70baseball.com)-You have to draft three Cardinals and keep them in your starting lineup for the entire season. No exceptions – doesn’t matter if they are hurt, under-performing or playing against an opponent that kills them, those three players are starting for you all year long.

Which three Cardinals are you confident enough in their production this coming season to rely on them in your fantasy league?

My Take-Which three players do I take from the 2016 Cardinals if I was doing fantasy baseball and they would have to be starters:

1.) Easy choice. Matt Carpenter. Extra base hit machine. Recently fell in love with homers. Gets on base at an insane clip. Consistent. People worried about him last year(myself included) and his OPS was .871. Easy pick.

2.) Second choice. Matt Holliday. Forget the home runs and take the overall OPS. Holliday gets on base, cranks doubles, scores runs, collects hits and is quite angry about only appearing in 73 games last year. He’s got a lot to prove and did I mention he is rocking the beard still? Holliday doesn’t guarantee 30 HR/120 RBI but he can still be good for 22 HR/95 RBI with 35-40 doubles.

If he sees more protection from guys behind him(not Peralta or Adams), he may see more pitches to hit. He’s consistent and fantasy owners need that. Holliday won’t be ridiculous(sorry Matheny) but he will be back to his 2012-14 self.

3.) Third choice. Trevor Rosenthal. Sure he may get hurt, but you may get hurt walking your dog so I’ll take the odds. Rosenthal improved greatly last year in keeping the leadoff man off base, accumulating strikeouts, and racking up saves. With the Cards getting there offense and Mike Matheny’s need to use him, I think Rosie has a nice season. Not “Adam Wainwright bought me a golf cart” nice but pretty solid.

Those are the three I’d take.Wainwright was right there but I went with Rosenthal because he can pitch more than once a week. Grichuk and Piscotty weren’t straight up NO’s but they don’t offer enough evidence or consistency to place them above the three.

Next: Piscotty or Grichuk?

Will the new guy in town be someone who provides innings or produces something greater?

Question from Matt Whitener(Cheap.Seats.Please)-What are your expectations for the impact that he makes in both the immediate and long-term picture for the Cardinals? Is he destined to remain a depth addition for the middle of the order, or can he ascend in the style of Woody Williams or Kyle Lohse and become an underrated high impact addition?

My Take-When Mike Leake was signed, people reacted to it like a rebound deal after losing David Price. As if the Prom King said no to your team, but the nerdy quiet guy said okay. Thr reaction wasn’t fair to Leake or the Cards.

This is a smart deal for each side. The Cards didn’t exactly need an Ace like Price. Sure, it would have been nice to acquire him and his many talents. However, Adam Wainwright is back and can still pitch like an ace. This team needed innings and consistency and that is what Leake is. At the very least, Leake can be a great #3. He won’t win Cy Young Awards or dazzle the crowd, but he will be the reliable pitcher fans can expect 6-7 innings from every time out. He is your Lance Lynn. With Waino back and Leake in, the Cards solved the rotation worries at least for now. They didn’t endanger their younger arms in Tim Cooney, Marco Gonzales or Alex Reyes. They got a guy who doesn’t project to dominate but someone who can eat up innings and maybe more.

I definitely think Leake can surprise fans and be a high impact guy, especially down the stretch when younger arms may tire or the bullpen can’t rescue games as often. When he was signed, I immediately thought of a Jeff Suppan and Lohse type addition. Someone who comes in without much fanfare but eventually impresses fans and his teammates alike with his ability to outperform expectations. He’s only 28 and signed a five year deal, which gives the upcoming young core time to grow into men before they are asked to be superstars while giving the team a parachute for departed veterans or injury prone bodies like Jaime Garcia.

Leake wasn’t a safe play by John Mozeliak. He was a smart under the radar addition that may carry big upside.

Next: Wong signs extension

Leake wasn’t a safe play by John Mozeliak. He was a smart under the radar addition that may carry big upside.

That’s all for this week folks. One of the good things about the Roundtable sessions is it can stir up stories and ideas. Please follow all of the above question dispensing writers on Twitter-

@tknup

@deckacards

@poisonwilliam

@Curtis_Josey

@CheapSeatFan

They are all guaranteed strong Cardinals analysis. If I cross Cards commentary with church, you get Whitener.

Thanks for reading and come back for more daily Cards coverage on Redbird Rants, where no bird is left uncovered.