St. Louis Cardinals Preseason Roster Predictions Part 5

Infield:

C — Yadier Molina: There is some debate about whether or not Yadier Molina will be (or should be) the starting catcher to open the season due to his thumb injury and off season surgery, but I’m putting money on number 4 being behind the plate to start the season. Why? Because of Molina and Mike Matheny.

Our beloved backstop is stubborn about being allowed to play, and generally, our less beloved manager lets him. It’s kind of what seems to get Yadi hurt so frequently, but between his willpower and the managers willingness to let him play, I find it hard to imagine that any other player will catch Adam Wainwright on opening day.

1B — Brandon Moss: Once again, we have a somewhat controversial decision to make. Right now, the first base job is a toss up between Brandon Moss and Matt Adams, and it’s almost impossible to tell who will actually get the job. So why do I give Moss the edge here? Two reasons. The first is his history. Although last year wasn’t exactly a triumph for him, the three seasons prior to 2015 showed a perfectly cromulent first baseman. Matt Adams has one month in 2013 where he looked pretty phenomenal.

But really, I could believe in Adams’ upside if it weren’t for Mike Matheny. His managerial style tends toward the veteran, even if that veteran isn’t an obvious upgrade over a younger counterpart. Thus, if given the choice between two relatively similar options with relatively similar stats, I’m going to bet on Mike choosing the one with more experience. And that’s why Brandon Moss will be scooping out errant throws at first base come April 3rd.

2B — Kolten Wong: Finally, we have a fairly easy choice. While I suppose there’s some outside chance that Jedd Gyorko could bump Kolten Wong from the starting role during Spring Training, I think that’s really unlikely. I feel pretty confident saying that the speedy Hawaiian will be manning the keystone for the St. Louis Cardinals on opening day.

3B — Matt Carpenter: Matt Carpenter is a lot like Wong, but even more certain. Unless he experiences a debilitating injury, Carpenter will play 3rd base for the Cardinals. He’s the best hitter in the Cardinals lineup, and fast becoming one of the most important pieces of St. Louis’ core. It’s hard to imagine a roster without Carpenter as the starting third baseman, and I’m not going to try too hard to do so. Moving on.

SS — Jhonny Peralta: Jhonny Peralta rounds out the infield as another sure thing. While catcher and first base are a little bit up in the air, second base, third base, and shortstop are pretty settled for the St. Louis Cardinals. Peralta has performed well in each of the last two seasons, and while he’s beginning to show his age a bit, he’s still a safe bet to be the starting shortstop for at least one more season.

Next: The Outfield

Outfield:

LF — Matt Holliday: Now we’re into the outfield, where we encounter another sure thing. Barring injury, Matt Holliday will be the St. Louis Cardinals starting left fielder. While Matt Carpenter has probably managed to wrestle the title of “best Cardinal hitter” from Holliday, that certainly doesn’t mean that he’s a slouch at all. At 36, he isn’t quite the player he used to be, but I think he still gets undervalued quite a bit, and I, for one, will be very happy to have a healthy Holliday back in the opening day lineup.

CF — Randal Grichuk: Many fans and analysts have Randal Grichuk as the starting center fielder for the Cardinals on opening day, and I don’t disagree, but I do have a few concerns that I need to voice before moving to right field. Right now, it seems that Grichuk is expected to be one of the top center fielders in baseball — and I am not yet convinced. His power is real, no doubt, and could be very solid, but his stats last year were bolstered by a more than healthy .365 BABIP, and if that falls too much, we’re looking at something more like a league average player than a super star.

In short, any player that strikes out 30% of the time worries me, even if a lot of other analysts want to declare him the next great power hitter after fewer than 500 plate appearances. So do I believe that Grichuk will be the St. Louis Cardinals opening day center fielder? Yes. Will I be absolutely shocked if he really struggles in Spring Training and Tommy Pham winds up taking that spot? No.

RF — Stephen Piscotty: In my mind, Stephen Piscotty is as much of a lock in right field as Holliday is in left. He probably won’t be quite the player we saw last year, but he’s a good one, and his floor is high, even if his ceiling isn’t quite as high as a player like Grichuk. With no one really threatening to take his spot in the lineup, it’s hard to imagine he won’t trot out to right for opening day.

Next: The Bench

Bench:

Brayan Pena: Like most rosters, the Cardinals will have a starting catcher. While it’s possible that Michael Ohlman or some other minor leaguer could claim that spot, it’s not likely given that the Cardinals are paying Brayan Pena $5 million over two years. So I’m betting on Pena as the backup catcher for Molina.

Matt Adams: It is possible that Matt Adams will be starting to open the season, and Brandon Moss will occupy this spot, but we’ve already discussed that. I predict that Adams will find himself on the bench as the backup first baseman, ready to fill in as needed.

Jedd Gyorko: The end result of the Jon Jay trade, Jedd Gyorko is the made-to-order utility infielder the Cardinals needed. After a number of years of Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma, having a reasonable option to backup the infield is a nice upgrade. With Gyorko on the bench, we won’t have to cringe when Peralta gets a day off, or when Matheny decides to pinch hit for the pitcher. While he won’t have much of a shot at a starting role, he should be a great upgrade for the bench.

Tommy Pham: There is a some chance that Tommy Pham will wind up as the St. Louis Cardinals starting center fielder, but it’s more likely that he serves as a one of the better fourth outfielders around. Although he probably won’t start opening day, he should see plenty of playing time giving rest to all three starting outfielders, and providing a fair number of pinch hit at bats.

Aledmys Diaz: The final bench spot is far and away the most interesting one.Rather than choosing the traditional fifth outfielder, I’m guessing that we’ll see another infielder here in Aledmys Diaz. Mentally, I have Brandon Moss playing the role of the fifth outfielder, even while starting the majority of the games at first base. It’s an odd situation, no doubt, and I could be very wrong but between Diaz and Anthony Garcia, I’ll take Diaz.

Of course, the Cardinals could also start the season with three catchers, given Molina’s health, or do something entirely different. The final bench spot is up in the air at this point, and Spring Training will do a lot to affect the final decision.

Next: The Starting Rotation

Starting Rotation:

1 — Adam Wainwright: After missing nearly the entire season last year due to a torn Achilles tendon, Adam Wainwright is back, and he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. He’s already been announced as the opening day starter, and that’s an honor he has more than earned. Be very excited that a healthy Waino will anchor the St. Louis Cardinals’ rotation in 2016.

2 — Carlos Martinez: There are some who would say that Carlos Martinez isn’t, or perhaps shouldn’t be the number two starter. And I won’t quibble too much about where he actually ranks in the rotation, but I will say this: Martinez is the second best starter on the staff right now. He has a chance of being the best within a year or two.

Don’t believe me? Well, Carlos started 29 games last year. In three of them, he allowed more than five earned runs. In the 26 other starts? He posted a 2.23 ERA and gave up fewer than 2 runs in half of those starts, including six shutouts. I’m betting on some improvement from the 24-year-old in 2016, so I want him slotted to start the second game, and I think he has a good chance of being put there by Mike Matheny.

3 — Jaime Garcia: The Glass Man (as he is known) isn’t ever a sure thing, but if he can stay healthy, Jaime Garcia has a chance to be one of the best number 3 starters around. He has consistently shown that he is a good starting pitcher when he’s pitching, and last year was no exception. After a very good 2015, the Cardinals executed his option — something almost unimaginable this time last year. Now he’ll have a chance to impress again, and I don’t think he’ll miss out.

While it’s possible he could edge out Martinez for the number two slot, I think he’ll ultimately find himself starting the third game of the season for our Redbirds.

4 — Michael Wacha: It’s hard to believe that Michael Wacha is only 24 years old. It seems like it was so long ago when he burst onto the scene in the 2013 playoffs, and part of that may be that his performance just hasn’t been the same since. If he’d kept it up, he’d be in a conversation for one of the top spots in the rotation. As it is, he’ll more than likely wind up in the back end of a very strong rotation.

Now don’t get me wrong, Wacha is a good, successful pitcher, but when you’re part of a starting five that includes Waino, El Gallo, and Jaime, it can be hard to catch a break. So I’ll be happy to see him occupy the number four slot.

5 — Mike Leake: To be honest, I’m not at all convinced that Mike Leake will actually be the St. Louis Cardinals’ fifth starter. It’s not that I think he’s good enough to be any higher, I just doubt that the Cardinals will slot $80 million dollars that far back in the rotation. Also, as we’ve explored, Matheny likes his “veteran” players, and I’d be surprised if someone with as much experience as Leake could wind up this far down in a rotation set by Mike.

That said, I just can’t stomach putting him any higher, so I’m not going to. Regardless of what the depth chart says on opening day, he will be the fifth starter in my mind.

Next: The Bullpen

Bullpen:

Closer — Trevor Rosenthal: This is a pretty straightforward choice for the St. Louis Cardinals and Mike Matheny: Trevor Rosenthal will be the closer. After two straight seasons of 45 or more saves, a deadly arsenal of pitches, and an ever improving walk rate, there’s no doubt that he and the ninth inning will be good friends in 2016. And I wouldn’t want it any other way.

Set-Up — Seung-Hwan Oh: For the rest of the bullpen, I’m leaving out set roles (some things are just too hard to predict), but I figured I had to take a hack at the set-up man. It’s true that Siegrist handled this role well last year, and Jordan Walden may be healthy enough to take it back as well, but I’m betting on The Final Boss. I just have a good feeling about Seung-Hwan Oh, and while I don’t think he will be as elite as he was in South Korea and Japan, I think he will acquit himself well and nail down the 8th inning for the Cards.

Jordan Walden: After pitching just over ten innings last year, Jordan Walden has kind of been forgotten by a fair number of fans and analysts, but I’m not sure that’s entirely fair. Still just 28, Walden has been a very solid reliever in his career, and at times has looked like he might be even better than that. While I don’t think he’ll be able to take the set-up role in 2016, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lock down the seventh, or perhaps even occasionally close a game if Rosenthal needs some rest. I’m looking for a big comeback from our favorite hopping pitcher.

Kevin Siegrist: As I said above, Kevin Siegrist may wind up being the set-up man, but I think that his high walk rate will lead to some regression and we’ll see a slightly less impressive pitcher in 2016. I might have pegged him for a spot as a left handed specialist, but he sports strong reverse splits (2.68 FIP against righties and a 3.85 FIP against lefties in his career, and it was even more disparate last year), so I imagine that he will be used as just another bullpen arm to fill in when the others need rest or when the bullpen needs to cover four innings.

Seth Maness: After a fairly rough season last year, much of Seth Maness‘ shine has worn off, but he’s still a perfectly serviceable arm if used correctly. While he doesn’t have a phenomenal strikeout rate, a consistent ground ball rate helps him keep his ERA down and serves the team well in the right situations. If he’s going to be anything more than a mediocre bullpen piece, however, he’ll need to keep the home runs down.

Jonathan Broxton: After being signed to a $7.5 million dollar contract this off-season, I imagine that Jonathan Broxton will get a fair amount of work. Is that a good thing? Debatable. Ultimately, I think his 4.62 ERA in 2015 was misleading and wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop into the mid-to-low threes across a solid full season. There’s still a cromulent pitcher in there somewhere, and it would be great to see him show up for the Cardinals in 2016.

Matt Bowman: As a Rule 5 draft pick, Matt Bowman has to stay on the 25-man roster for the entire season in order for the Cardinals to keep him. Will that happen? I’d bet not, as long as St. Louis is competitive. Does that mean they’ll give up before they’ve even started? Not a chance. So the final edition to the 25-man roster will be the Rule 5 draft pick Bowman. What can we expect from him? Hopefully a decent swing-man or spot starter, but don’t be too surprised if he doesn’t pitch often and doesn’t impress much when he does.

Next: Preseason Roster Predictions Part 4

Well, there we have it! All 25 roster spots predicted. What do you think? Where did I jump the tracks? Let me know in the comments below!