St. Louis Cardinals: Preseason Roster Predictions Part 4

Infield

There’s really one position that is open for a lot of debate in the Cardinals’ infield and that is first base. It’s been talked about in great length here at Redbird Rants about the first base battle, and it will continue to be a major topic of discussion throughout Spring Training. The rest of the infield is pretty much set, but let’s go through it.

We’ll start with first base.

1B: Brandon Moss

Brandon Moss is my guy at first base, and I stated as much last week. I believe Moss will win the starting first base gig in Spring Training and be on his way to a bounce-back season. The 32-year old has averaged 23 homers and a .450 slugging percentage throughout his career. Moss has already said that 20 homers is a number he expects this year, and I expect more than 20.

The big question is will Moss be consistent enough throughout the season to continue getting starts at first base? This Spring Training battle could be a toss-up if Matt Adams is indeed healthy.

Both players have something to prove this season, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Matheny winds up going with the hot hand throughout the year. For now, I say Moss takes the reigns at first and hits 27 long balls for the Cardinals in 2016. They’ll need the power.

2B: Kolten Wong

Take a look at these two players:

Player A:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Player B:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Player A: is Detroit Tigers’ second baseman Ian Kinsler. Player B is Kolten Wong. Both tables show each player’s age-24 season. Surprised?

I am a big believer in Wong. It’s easy to forget that he just turned 25 this past October, and last season was really his first as the full-time second baseman for the Cardinals. With no real backup at second base, Wong tired out in the second half of the 2015 season.

But there’s no doubt that Wong is the Cardinals starting second baseman going into the 2016 season. Now, I’m not saying Wong will go on to amass career averages of 22 homers and 83 RBI a year, like Kinsler. Wong doesn’t quite have that kind of power.

It’s worth noting too that Kinsler played in 30 less games than Wong in his age 24 season and the next season he went out and hit 20 homers in just 130 games. Still, I believe we have yet to see Wong’s ceiling with the Cardinals. With Jedd Gyorko providing more rest for Wong, he shouldn’t fizzle in the second half of 2016 like he did last year.

If he can cut down the strikeouts and get on base more frequently, I say Wong puts it all together this season and hits .280 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, 85 runs scored and 23 stolen bases for the Cardinals. Sounds like an All Star worthy season to me.

SS: Jhonny Peralta

Getting Jhonny Peralta more time off this season will undoubtedly be the Cardinals number one priority in 2016, and it should be. Peralta has played in 312 total games over the last two seasons — tops in the National League among shortstops during that time. Much like Wong, the 33-year old faded in the second half of 2015. I don’t expect that to happen again this year.

It will be interesting to see if Peralta can put together another solid season for the Cardinals in the third year of his 4-year deal. With more rest and barring no injuries, I believe he will do just that. I project Peralta for 22 homers and 80 RBI for the Cardinals, while hitting .285 en route to a second straight All Star game.

Cardinals fans should enjoy it while they can. The shortstop position will get real interesting for St. Louis after the 2017 season.

3B: Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter is not only the Cardinals starting third baseman, he’s the best offensive player on the team and should be a main leader this season.

Carpenter posted a 5.2 fWAR last season, which was second on the team behind Jason Heyward. Carpenter was also the only Cardinal player to hit more than 20 homers and score more than 80 runs (he had 101). Carp is the key to this Cardinals’ offense, and they will need another monster season from him to stay atop of the NL Central.

Fellow colleague, Landon Clapp, says Carpenter could be a dark horse MVP candidate in 2016, and I absolutely agree. The big question is whether or not Carpenter moves down in the lineup and gets a chance to drive in more runs.

Probably not. Carpenter has more than proven that he is most comfortable in the leadoff role and most productive there too. Either way, it will be fun to watch the 30-year old TCU product hopefully put up another stellar season for the Cardinals.

Catcher: Yadier Molina

Yes, I know Yadier Molina is rehabbing from two surgeries on his catching thumb. And yes, I know that the Cardinals are exercising patience with their All Star catcher. Still, can you imagine an Opening Day without Yadi behind the plate? Not me.

I believe Molina will, indeed, be in the starting lineup come Opening Day. But I don’t believe that he will finish the game there. We all know that Molina will work as hard as possible to get ready for Opening Day. And I believe his hard work will pay off. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals, depending on just how “ready” he really is, get Molina out of the game a bit early and see how his thumb reacts.

I could be completely wrong. It wouldn’t surprise me either if the Cardinals play it safe and stick newcomer Brayan Pena behind the plate. Pena can handle the duties too. Besides, it is more important to have Yadi fully healthy and ready to go for the home opener.

Molina is a tough guy, I expect him to be ready to go at the end of April by the latest. The Cardinals need their game manager behind the plate for a full season. Anything else he gives them offensively is a bonus.

Next: In the Outfield

Outfield:

When Jason Heyward left for the Chicago Cubs, I was certain that it would mean that general manager John Mozeliak would take that money and spend it on a big bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. But in true Mozeliak fashion, that just wasn’t the case. Looking ahead to 2016, the Cardinals are putting all their eggs in one basket with a pair of young outfielders.

LF: Matt Holliday

Matt Holliday returns from the quad injuries that hampered him last season. It will be interesting to see if Holliday can bounce back after playing in less than 121 games for the first time in his career. I believe he will. Holliday not only has something to prove to the critics, but to the Cardinals as well.

After this season, St. Louis has a $17M team option that they can either pick up to keep Holliday or opt for a $1M buyout to let him hit free agency. Holliday stated this week that he hopes to retire with the Cardinals, but he will have to earn that right with a solid bounce back season for the Cardinals to give him that opportunity.

If he can stay healthy I expect Holliday to put up some solid numbers. How about his first 25-plus homer season for the Cardinals since 2012? That might be enough to keep him in St. Louis. We’ll see.

CF: Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk will take over as the everyday center fielder for the Cardinals in 2016. Last season he proved that his power potential is real by swatting 17 homers in just 323 at bats. The big question is if he can stay healthy.

Grichuk has displayed throughout the minors and again last season with his arm injury, to be a bit injury prone. But if he can stay healthy this season, the 24-year old can be one of the most dynamic hitters this Cardinals’ offense has, and the team needs him to be after electing not to sign that big bat in the offseason.

Grichuk’s greatest struggle is with the strikeouts. He struck out 110 times last season or  31.4 percent of the time. That’s where he will have to make strides in his first full season as a starter. But if he can stay healthy, I believe Grichuk can be the first Cardinals hitter to eclipse 30 homers in a season since Carlos Beltran did it back in 2012.

RF: Stephen Piscotty

Stephen Piscotty opened a lot of eyes last season when he came up and hit .305 with 7 homers, 15 doubles, 4 triples, and 39 RBI in just 63 games. Eyes opened even wider when the 25-year old blasted three homers in the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs.

Piscotty can flat out hit. With all the hype surrounding Grichuk, let’s not forget a guy who already looks like a veteran when he steps up to the plate — cool, calm and collected. I said it earlier in the offseason, but Piscotty will be an offensive staple for the Cardinals for years to come.

Piscotty really didn’t have too many slumps in his brief taste of the majors last year, though. So, I’ll want to see if he can handle the grind of a 162-game season. The Cardinals are banking on it. I am, too. I expect big things from the Stanford product. I project Piscotty for a .280/.360/.477 line with 21 homers and 85 RBI in his first full season.

Next: The Starting Rotation

The Rotation

Last season, the Cardinals had the best starting rotation in baseball with a starters ERA of 2.99 — the only team in the Majors to post a sub 3.00 starters ERA. With the departure of John Lackey to the Cubs and Lance Lynn lost for a year to Tommy John surgery, is it too lofty of an expectation to think that the Cardinals can do it again?

I don’t think so. Here’s how the starting rotation should shake out:

No. 1: Adam Wainwright

The ace is back.

After his freak Achilles injury last season, Adam Wainwright will once again join the Cardinals staff and return as the No. 1 starter. All signs so far have pointed to Wainwright being fine, but we will have a better idea of that once games begin next week and he gets some live action on the mound.

Waino has a chip on his shoulder and he’s out to prove the critics wrong. Those who say he’s injury prone forget that the the Achilles injury was really only Wainwright’s second big injury of his career — the first being Tommy John surgery in 2011.

Sure, the Cardinals lost Lackey, but they get their ace back this season and a guy who has finished in the in the top three of the Cy Young voting four times since 2009. Last season’s injury will be a blessing in disguise for the 34-year old as he saved a ton of innings on that arm, too.

I expect Wainwright to post Cy Young worthy numbers this season and once again lead a dominant Cardinals pitching staff.

No. 2: Carlos Martinez

In three short years Carlos Martinez could very well move up to No. 1 in the rotation and be the Cardinals future ace. That’s how good “Baby Pedro” is.

Martinez was brilliant last season in his first go at joining the Cardinals rotation full time, and the numbers show it.  Despite a shoulder injury that shut him down last season, Martinez has been back on the mound early on in Spring Training and says that his shoulder feels good and ready to go. Let’s hope that is truly the case. The Cardinals badly missed Martinez in the NLDS against the Cubs last season.

I expect Martinez, if healthy, to eclipse 200 innings pitched this season and improve on a walk rate that is still a bit high. The future is bright for the young power pitcher, and Cardinals fans should enjoy watching the emotional 24-year old on the mound for many years to come in St. Louis.

No. 3: Michael Wacha

Michael Wacha had a fairly solid season last year winning 17 games for the Cardinals, but the right-hander ran out of gas late in the second half.

The 2016 season will prove to be crucial for the 24-year old in seeing if he is really who we thought he was when he stormed onto the scene in the 2013 postseason. The bad news is Wacha’s ERA, WHIP and FIP have all steadily risen over the last three seasons.

The good news is Wacha is still young. He doesn’t turn 25 until July and last season was his first full turn in the rotation, so he can certainly still reach his potential. Let’s just hope it happens sooner rather than later. It won’t be too long before the Cardinals will be turning to Wacha and Martinez to lead this starting rotation.

No. 4: Jaime Garcia

We all know how this story goes. When Jaime Garcia is healthy, he can be phenomenal. Last season the lefty tossed 129.2 innings — the most he’s thrown since 2011 (194.2 IP). His season ended on a sour note though as he only lasted two innings in the Game 2 start agains the Cubs in the NLDS as he tried to make the start while dealing with a stomach virus. Still, the lefty went 10-6 with a stellar 2.43 ERA, 3.00 FIP and a 1.05 WHIP last season.

But can he stay healthy? That’s always the biggest question with Garcia, and will continue to be the case in 2016. The 29-year old will need to post a fully healthy season and dominant numbers for the Cardinals to pick up his $12M team option for 2017. If he can’t stay healthy, this could be the final season we see Garcia in a Cardinals uniform.

No. 5: Mike Leake

Mike Leake is the Cardinals newest addition, and not too shabby for a fifth starter.

I wrote at length about Leake a little while back. Check that out for a more in depth look at the newest Cardinals hurler. I expect a career-year for the 28-year old. Plus, Leake has solid numbers agains the NL Central, more specifically the Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates, which is probably the biggest difference between him and Lance Lynn.

Next: The Bullpen

The Bullpen

It’s no secret that the Cardinals’ bullpen is led by Trevor Rosenthal. I expect the hard-throwing right hander to put up another 45-plus saves for 2016. We have no reason to believe he won’t.

So, who fills out the rest of the bullpen?

Here’s who I’ve got: Jordan Walden, Seung Hwan Oh, Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness, Tyler Lyons and Jonathan Broxton.

Walden should be the setup man for Rosenthal, barring another injury. Oh is who will be most exciting to see pitch and it wouldn’t surprise me if he quickly becomes the next option after Rosy and Walden.

Siegrist had a solid season last year for the Cardinals and I expect more of the same. They will need him to be effective against left-handed batters. Maness is, of course, the ground-ball specialist, and if he can throw more sinkers in 2016, I believe he will have a great year.

Broxton isn’t my favorite option, but Matheny likes the big righty. He does have solid closing experience though, so I understand the allure. Lyons is the wildcard of the bullpen, and as Dan Buffa stated, he is much more suited for the bullpen than as a starter, which is why I have him filling in that final bullpen spot.

The Cardinals’ bullpen should, once again, be one of the best in baseball at finishing the job this season.

Next: On The Bench

The Bench

The Cardinals bench really comes down to five guys and there are four that it’s safe to say are locks to make the team: Matt Adams, Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham and Brayan Pena.

Surprised to see Adams here? Again, that first base battle could go back and forth all season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Adams even gains back his starting first base job during the season.

More from Adam Wainwright

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Pham is the Cardinals main backup outfield option, which is a little scary to think about. Moss also has outfield experience, but I’d expect Pham to be out there on the days that a starting outfielder needs some rest.

The Gyorko trade should pay off as he will provide some needed rest for Wong and Peralta up the middle during this season, and maybe even a few starts here and there at third to spell Carpenter.

Pena is, of course, Molina’s backup and a solid one at that. He should be a much better option than former Cardinal Tony Cruz, which should take some pressure off of Molina to feel like he needs to catch every single game.

So, who does that leave for the fifth and final spot on the bench?

It would seem that utility infielder Greg Garcia is the early front runner for the spot. But my pick is shortstop Aledmys Diaz. Diaz had a solid season between Triple A and Double A last year hitting .278 with 13 homers, 28 doubles and 52 RBI in just 116 games. If the 25-year old can continue to impress with a strong Spring Training, then he can snag that final bench spot.

Plus, why not get a look at him this season with a couple of starts at short to give Peralta a breather? The Cardinals signed Diaz back in 2014 with the idea of him possibly taking over as the everyday shortstop for the big club one day. As I said earlier, Peralta isn’t getting younger and in a couple of seasons, Diaz could be the guy at shortstop for St. Louis.

Opening Day Lineup Prediction:

Here’s my Opening Day lineup prediction for the Cardinals versus the Pirates:

Carpenter
Piscotty
Holliday
Grichuk
Peralta
Moss
Molina
Wong
Wainwright

Next: Cardinals' Opening Day Roster Predictions Part 3

What’s your Opening Day lineup prediction? Let me know on Twitter, and as always, let us know in the comments below what you think.