St. Louis Cardinals: Preseason Roster Predictions Part 3

Catchers

Yadier Molina

I just recently outlined some extreme scenarios that could play out with Cardinals main stay Yadier Molina at the catcher position this season.

I made it clear that I see absolutely no reason to rush Yadi back this spring. Not when there is a quality backup option like Brayan Pena. Not when there is so much to gain by easing Yadi in, and so much to lose by bringing him back before he is ready.

With that said, I still don’t think that Yadi starts the season on the DL. It has been reported by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman that Yadi will have his Opening Day status determined in mid-March, but I would be surprised if he isn’t on that 25-man roster to open in Pittsburgh.

He may not play for the first week of the season, he may not even play until later on in the month of April. But, frankly, I don’t think the Cardinals will be willing to completely rule him out for a 15-day time frame to start 2016. Not with how important each game is going to be and not with uncertainty around how somebody not named Molina will handle the Cardinal pitchers.

Brayan Pena

I don’t see the Cardinals taking more than two catchers out of camp. I’ve got Brayan Pena handling the catching duties for the first week or so of the regular season before Yadi eases back in.

Pena is more than capable of handling things while Yadi recovers. The fact that he is a switch-hitter is obviously a plus. He is capable defensively, as well. The key factor is going to be how he meshes with Cardinal pitchers.

Worst case, Pena and the Cardinal staff don’t mix at all, and the Cardinals feel obligated to get Yadi back as soon as possible. While I anticipate Yadi being “available” on Opening Day from a roster standpoint, I think that it would take an absolute panic scenario for us to see Yadi in game action ahead of the first couple of series’ of the season.

Again, we will know much more come mid-March.

Next: Who's going to grab hold of 1B duties?

Infield

Matt Adams

Man, I knew that Cardinal fans were down on this guy, but I didn’t know how ready we were to ship him off elsewhere. Sure, he’s been atrocious against lefties at the Major League level thus far. Yes, he hit just 15 home runs in a full season of at-bats in 2014. And, yes, he was only hitting .240 when he went down to that hammy strain last year.

But something still tells me that Adams is going to produce in 2016. I don’t have a laundry list of stats or some kind of magical analysis to convince you of my opinion, just more of a gut feeling, really. I named Big City as my top breakout candidate in one of my first piece’s here back in January, and it would be weak to back down from that prediction now.

Maybe it is the memories from the 2014 postseason that make me think that Adams is due for a big year. Maybe it comes from feeling completely underwhelmed (even with very tempered expectations) by Brandon Moss last year (injured hip or not) that makes me feel this way.

Simply put, I just like Adams, and I like him to win the first base job without much looking back. Go ahead and tell me why I’m wrong, you’ll probably have some valid points to back you up.

Kolten Wong

Wong will most definitely be the Cardinals’ “starter” at second base, although that tag is probably only going to apply to match ups against right-handed starters.

Wong hasn’t actually been bad against left-handed pitching in his brief career. His .607 OPS against lefties is just 92 points below his .699 mark against righties. He’s hit .248 against lefties compared to .251 against righties in his three-year career.

But, the Cards gave up a valuable, young outfield talent like Jon Jay to get Jedd Gyorko for a reason. With Gyorko’s power potential, he is going to see plenty of at-bats, mostly at Wong’s expense at the second base position.

Jhonny Peralta

Peralta isn’t going anywhere at shortstop. His production has been refreshing since he took over ahead of 2014, and he is going to be a key piece in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.

Similar to Yadi, his usage will be limited to an extent (the Cards have plenty of backup options) so that he is as fresh as possible come October.

Anything around the 2o home run and 75-80 RBI range would be fantastic for the 33-year-old shortstop. Similar to Yadi, I care less about what he does in the regular season numbers-wise so long as he is healthy and producing in late-September and into October.

Matt Carpenter

Matt Carpenter put stretches of MVP-like production together in 2016, with a two-month lull mixed in. He was the Cardinals’ top offensive performer, despite being limited (to an extent) hitting in the leadoff spot.

I hope that we see Carpenter in the middle of the order a lot during Spring Training, just to see if he can get comfortable there. If Carpenter is able to swing the bat from a third or even fifth position in the order like he did as a leadoff hitter last year, I think that 100 RBI could be a very realistic number.

If he isn’t comfortable, get him back to leadoff and leave him alone. Most likely, that’s where he is going to end up. He just seems like a natural leadoff guy. If that is where he is comfortable and producing, so be it.

Next: A surprise in the outfield?

Outfield

Matt Holliday

Matt Holliday has as much to prove as the next Cardinal bat thanks to questions regarding his age and health going forward.

Holliday has made it known that he wants to retire a Cardinal. Unless he plans to do so after the 2015 season, I think that 20+ home runs and 80+ RBI are requirements for the Cardinals to consider picking up his 2017 option.

I see a resurgent 2016 in the works for Holliday. After missing him for the majority of 2015, we are going to get a nice reminder of what his presence in the lineup means to the offense.

Stay tuned for any potential first base storyline and see if that gains any traction.

Tommy Pham

I have Tommy Pham listed here instead of Randal Grichuk because I think Tommy wins the starting center field job out of camp. That isn’t a knock on Grichuk, but more of a compliment to what Pham did down the stretch last year and what I think he is capable of in 2016.

I think that Tommy is hungry. He has put his time in at Springfield and Memphis. He’s dealt with all the injury troubles. He’s finally made it to St. Louis, and he doesn’t just want to hang around… he wants to shine while he’s here.

I think that Tommy comes out hungrier than Grichuk, plain and simple.

Stephen Piscotty

I love Piscotty’s demeanor on the field and his approach to the game of baseball. He plays with a poise and understanding of the game that you would expect from a six or seven year veteran.

His simple, compact swing, as well as his ability to hit the ball to all fields, should mean high batting averages and as much of a “slump proof” swing as there is in the Cardinal lineup.

The upside for Piscotty is tremendous. While he will likely experience a few lumps while navigating his first 162-game campaign, I expect big things out of Piscotty.

I would be surprised with any less than 20 home runs in 2016. 75-80 RBI seems about right, and I would expect a batting average no lower than .280.

Next: The Reinforcements

Bench

Brandon Moss

It’s nothing personal or anything like that, I really just don’t like much about Moss. He had offseason hip surgery ahead of 2015, yet, he never really mentioned hip troubles or lack of leg strength until campaigning for the first base job this off season.

This brings up a couple of questions for me.

If he wasn’t healthy last year (I don’t know whether he was or wasn’t), was that made clear prior to the trade that landed him in St. Louis? Who’s to say the hip issue is fully resolved? Just because he says he feels good and expects 20 home runs, we should assume he will go back to producing like he did in Oakland?

It is my opinion that Moss peaked with the A’s. The Cardinals and Mozeliak had their backs against the wall at the deadline last year, and they reached for a guy that was borderline healthy to say they did something at the deadline.

I could be dead wrong, and I will eat my words if/when I’m proven wrong. I don’t have a list of statistics or media reports to back me on this, just a personal feel for the situation. As it stands, I have Moss starting out as Adams’ backup at first base. I see him spelling Adams at first, Holliday in left and Piscotty in right, while serving as a left-handed pinch hit option late in games.

Randal Grichuk

I’m not quite as high on Grichuk as most. Again, I don’t have any real big reasons, other than the fact that he struck out 110 times in 323 at-bats a season ago. That is more than one strike out every three times to the plate. That is way too many.

On the flip side, the bat speed and subsequent exit velocity that Grichuk is capable of producing has to excite you. We are going to watch Grichuk hit some long home runs in his career. If he starts putting the bat on the ball at a more frequent clip, he COULD develop into a 30 homer a year guy.

I have Grichuk listed on the bench here because I think that Tommy Pham is going to come out hungrier and he’s going to be better this spring.

I still think Grichuk ends the season with 350-400 plate appearances, though. In fact, I don’t think any Cardinal outfielder will have more than 500 at-bats this year. I think that all four guys are going to push each other, and Matheny will employ more of a platoon approach with match ups and how guys are performing.

Jedd Gyorko

Jedd Gyorko is going to see plenty of action at plenty of spots on the field in 2016. He’s an instant power threat off the bench. He’s capable of playing all four infield positions.

Matheny will play match ups at second base and Gyorko figures to see all the action against lefties.

There is even an outside possibility that, should Wong struggle, Gyorko could take over full-time second base duties, particularly if he provides that lineup with a consistent power source.

Greg Garcia

I’ve got Garcia as the last positional player to make the roster out of camp, mostly due to his experience backing up Peralta at shortstop.

I think that Aledmys Diaz is the face of the future at shortstop for the Cardinals, but I don’t think he will be ready for the Major League level at the start of April.

I hope that Garcia sees plenty of game action, giving Peralta the rest that he needs. We have to have Peralta fresh and ready to go in September and October. The Cardinals cannot afford a second half offensive free-fall like Peralta went through last year.

Giving Garcia plenty of opportunities at shortstop should help him develop at the big league level while keeping Peralta fresh for an entire season.

Next: Pitching, pitching, pitching...

Starting Rotation

There will not be any drama here, barring injury of course. With Adam Wainwright tabbed to start on Opening Day, the rotation figures to fill in with Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, Jaime Garcia, and Mike Leake.

I know that Wainwright is going to pitch with the same demeanor and presence in 2016 as he always has. I have a few concerns about how good his stuff will be to start things, but his presence alone makes the entire rotation better.

I’m looking for another step forward from Carlos Martinez, particularly in handling his emotions on the mound. I’m a bit concerned with how Wacha finished 2015, but still think that he will have a lot of success this year.

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I hate that I have to say it, but how can I not? IF Jaime Garcia stays healthy, he has top of the rotation stuff and a plan of attack that really maximizes his talents. I was really down on Garcia after his start in Game 2 of the NLDS, but it’s in the past.

The jury is still out on Mike Leake. His signing was extremely underwhelming, but, a move that I think the Cards needed to make. Even if he gives the Cardinals nothing more than fifth-starter type performances, he could really help the pitching staff by eating 200+ innings this year.

Next: The Super Bullpen

Trevor Rosenthal

Rosie still hasn’t entirely given up on being a starting pitcher at some point in his career. In my opinion, he might as well give that up right now. He’s way too good as a closer. He doesn’t have the makeup of a starting pitcher, nor does he have the secondary pitches necessary for the job. At least not yet.

He’s an elite closer in today’s game. I think that another 45-50 save campaign is going to convince him that the ninth inning is the place for him.

Jordan Walden

Walden could provide so much relief to this bullpen if he’s healthy this season. When he’s right, he has absolutely dominant stuff. His makeup and pitch repertoire make him perfect for a setup role. I’m not sure he starts the season in that spot, but he could end up there by September, of course assuming he stays healthy.

Seung-Hwan Oh

All I really know about Oh is how good he was in Japan. Fangraphs has video of Oh from 2014 throwing a 94 mph (151kph) fastball. So Oh isn’t going to overpower anybody.

Oh has a good amount of deception in his delivery, and throws his sinking fastball early and often. He mixes in a sharp slider while mixing in a curveball sparingly. Should Oh develop some sort of change-up or split-finger type pitch to work off of the sinker, he could be trouble for left and right-handed batters.

It will be intriguing to see how he attacks Major League hitters and how he adjusts to Major League Baseball in general. I will reserve judgement until actually seeing him in game situations. But, all signs point towards him being a high-impact arm in the Cards’ bullpen.

Kevin Siegrist

To be honest, I wasn’t sure if Siegrist would make it back into the pen last year after the struggles with injuries he endured in 2014.

He didn’t just make it back last year, he shined.

When Walden went down at the end of April, Siegrist stepped into the setup role and did a better job than anybody could have expected.

Siegrist was used a ton last year. With the additional power right-handed pitchers in the Cardinals pen this year, I look for Siegrist to be used in lefty-lefty situations much more this year. I don’t think he will be a full blown LOOGY or anything like that, but I don’t think he will be a true setup man any more in St. Louis, either.

Jonathan Broxton

A part of me is really excited about Broxton being in the Cardinals pen, another part of me is worried that his best days are behind him.

Broxton still throws hard, but he isn’t overpowering like he once was earlier in his career. His secondary stuff can be good, but he was far from consistent with anything he threw after joining St. Louis last season.

I’m cautiously optimistic about Broxton this year. We will just have to kick back and see what he goes out there and does. He could go out and blow up early, or he could settle in and be an anchor in the Super Pen. Only time will tell.

Seth Maness

Even with the power arms that the Cardinals feature at the back end of the bullpen, there will always be a spot for Seth Maness. His ability to come into a game and immediately get a double play ball is one of the most valuable assets the Cardinals have down there. He can give you three, four innings in extra-inning situations, too.

Assuming he doesn’t start leaving the ball up and getting hammered, I anticipate seeing plenty of Seth Maness again in 2016.

Tyler Lyons

Alright, I’m officially going back on my Kiekhefer-LOOGY pick. That isn’t because I suddenly realized that Lyons was out of options. I knew that the entire time, despite what some commenters on past posts of mine might think.

I’ve never been too high on Lyons, and think that it would be a big mistake to take a guy who might not help the club on your Opening Day roster, just because you are worried about losing him on waivers.

I’m picking Lyons to make the club because I think that he can fill a very important role for the Cardinals. Matheny needs to limit innings for pretty much all of his starters (outside of Leake), for a variety of reasons.

With Lyons, he can have a much shorter leash on guys because Lyons is capable of throwing starter innings at any time. Instead of leaving a starter in after he’s given up a couple of runs through three innings, Matheny can turn to Lyons to eat those early and middle innings and save the starters innings to be used in the fall.

He could fill some sort of a LOOGY-type role as well, but he’s going to have to get better against left-handed hitters. He’s got the stuff to do it, it’s just about execution at this point.

Next: Presesaon Roster Prediction Part 2

So, there you have it. That is my pick of 25 guys the make the Cardinals’ roster out of camp. Let me know what you think about my picks in the comments, or feel free to get at me on twitter!