St. Louis Cardinals: Preseason Memphis Roster Prediction

Instead of providing a St. Louis Cardinals’ roster, we will predict the AAA-affiliate Memphis Redbirds roster (and an added bonus look at the Cardinals proposed lineup).

Spring training is an exciting time for baseball.  In spring training many things are learned: who should make the active roster, who should be moved to minor league camp, which pitcher has it this season and which does not, and- unfortunately as has been the case in the St. louis Cardinals’ camp these past years- who will or will not get injured.

All of these things lead directly to the opening day roster for both the big league team and the team located in Memphis.  As the Redbird Rants staff writer for Memphis, while my counterparts are examining and proposing their rosters for the big club, I will devote this post to my roster projection for Memphis.

It should certainly be noted that as spring training games commence, and should injuries fall, these projections will definitely be altered.  Stay tuned to Redbird Rants and follow along to see how accurate these projections are and how dramatically things will change.

In looking at the Memphis 2016 roster, I would like us all to keep a few things in mind: Memphis needs a PCL championship again (especially since the organization is principal owner now; a championship hasn’t happened under this ownership yet), the players who appear in Memphis MUST stay healthy so they can address injuries with the big club.

Lastly, how much fun will it be to watch the players in this list grow their individual repertoires to add to this great team we love?!

With those things in mind, let me take you on a ride through the players I feel will start 2016 with the Memphis Redbirds.

Next: Catchers

Catchers

With the big league club already in question (read: status of Yadier Molina), it is easy to assume that Brayan Pena will be St. Louis’ starting catcher.  The question with St. Louis then is who will follow as his backup.

The organization has the likes of Eric Fryer, Mike Ohlman, and Carson Kelly in the wings.  So the first question is, who will NOT be in Memphis to address the need for a starting backup to Pena should Molina start on the disabled list (worst case scenario)?

Let’s start by assuming that Molina does start on the DL.  My projection then for STL is that Pena’s backup will be Eric Fryer.  Having established that, I can now look at Memphis.

Mike Ohlman- Starter

With Fryer starting in STL, I believe the best option for Memphis’ starter behind the plate will be Ohlman.  Now, I’ve gushed enough already about my opinions of Ohlman and how excited I am to watch him grow this season.  Something that I haven’t yet mentioned will be his impact upon his backup…

Carson Kelly- Backup

2016 will be a very, very important year for Kelly.  He must use this season at Memphis to grow and learn more about the position as he is clearly the organization’s best choice for the future behind the plate.  Kelly could well be the heir to Molina and it will serve him well to learn from Ohlman.

Do I think this limits Ohlman?  No way.  Do I think Kelly hits the ceiling or moves to STL this season?  Maybe but I’m less inclined to those feelings.  In short, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fryer, Ohlman, and Kelly shuttle back and forth between Memphis and St. Louis this season to get each of them exposed to the majors.

Next: Infield

Infield

St. Louis seems to have their infield stocked which means that Memphis will once again be a breeding ground for backup talent.  Having said that, however, fans should be more than excited to see who sticks around in Memphis.  There is one question mark: will Aledmys Diaz make the opening day St. Louis roster or will he be bumped down to make a spot for someone else?

First Base- Patrick Wisdom

While Wisdom has started only thirty-two games at first and never at the AAA-level, I feel that Wisdom will find his value at this position in 2016.  With third base (Wisdom’s potentially more natural position) locked by Jacob Wilson, I feel that Wisdom will spend the majority of spring training working at first to fill this voided position for Memphis.

Second Base- Dean Anna

Let’s be honest, the lifeline for Anna may well be ending/drying up/insert other metaphor here.  That said, Memphis can use his talents at second where he can contribute (a PCL championship would sure be nice), where he can learn how to be better backup/utility talent, and/or where he can add value to be used in a trade.

Shortstop- Alex Mejia

Okay, so I spilled the beans a little here but I truly believe that Diaz makes the opening day roster for the Cardinals.  I don’t see the big squad carrying too many pitchers with all the off days at the start of the season.  That said, I do see Diaz shuttling back and forth between Memphis and St. Louis this season.

With that out of the way, Mejia is nothing to shake one’s head at.  Mejia has posted a career slash line of .259/.302/.339 offensively while posting a shortstop fielding percentage of .960.  Oh, and by the way, Mejia has also appeared at second so he can easily move there when Diaz returns to Memphis and/or if Anna can’t hack it or is traded.

Third Base- Jacob Wilson

The great Jacob Wilson!  Like Ohlman before him, I have probably gushed too much about Wilson.  All that said, I look for 2016 to be his season.  To this end, should Jedd Gyorko fail to produce or should GM Mozeliak finally convince a team to accept Greg Garcia in a trade, I would not be surprised at all to see Wilson headed to St. Louis.

If and when Wilson travels the shuttle to St. Louis, Wisdom can easily slide over to third and one of the outfielders like Hazelbaker or Peguero can slide to first and cover the difference.

Next: Outfield

Starting Rotation

Everyone knows that AAA is the level where players learn to either start or fill bullpen positions and often these roles swap with speed– sometimes even in the midst of games.  Everyone also knows that AAA is the level in which major league pitchers rehab.  These things add a touch of complication to creating a starting rotation for Memphis.

Having said that, there are additional complications in the form of two pitchers who I have included in this rotation simply based on the fact that their performance in spring training may have them breaking camp in the major league squad.  I feel that Memphis is a better starting point for them this season (save those options after all).

#1 SP Marco Gonzales

Marco is one of the two pitchers who may break camp with the Cardinals.  I am worried that if he breaks camp with the big club that he will find his spot in the pen and I feel he has much better worth as a starting pitcher.  With that said, Memphis would be a better starting spot for 2016 for him and Memphis can certainly use him.

Should Memphis find prime luck and have Marco starting the rotation, he instantly becomes the number one starter which will also help him build into the 2017 starting rotation for St. Louis as a number four or better slot.

#2 SP Tim Cooney

Cooney is the second pitcher who may break camp with the Cardinals.  Like Marco above, I feel that the organization gets far better and deeper use out of Cooney reserving him in Memphis and saving the options.  Should injury befall the big club, either Cooney or Gonzales can easily ship up and serve well.

Cooney, also like Marco, is one heck of a pitcher.  2016 would be a great season for Memphis to once again hold the PCL title and a rotation with Gonzales and Cooney at the top two slots is one that will be tough to beat in the AAA-level.

#3 SP Luke Weaver

The organization is very high on Weaver right now, and rightfully so.  Weaver commands a 2.24 ERA after two seasons of minor league appearances.  Bragging about that does not, however, excuse the fact that he has not appeared any higher than high-A.  Is he good enough to jump to AAA?  It certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see him break spring training with Memphis on a very short leash (but one that could well explode with celebration).

#4 SP Arturo Reyes

Arturo Reyes is not yet a popular name.  2016, I feel, will be the year this changes.  In his career, Arturo commands a 3.39 ERA across three seasons in the minors.  A full season with Memphis and with the Memphis pitching staff will certainly help him become a pitcher-of-tomorrow.

A few things to note about Arturo: 2015 was shortened due to injury (will 2016 see similar issues?), Arturo should focus on pitching deeper into games, and Arturo must work on his pitching with runners on base (his ERA balloons with ducks on the pond).  These are all things that can be mastered in Memphis.

#5 SP Alex Reyes

Please don’t burn me at the stake for this suggestion, but when Reyes returns from his suspension, I feel that he will shore-up the Memphis rotation.  I placed him at number five only due to the suspension limiting his starting time.

That said, I am very excited for Reyes and can easily see him leading this rotation as the number one or two starter when Gonzales or Cooney are called up or traded.  Reyes’ 3.80 ERA could really help Memphis and a full season with the Redbirds could well see this ERA quickly lower.

Until Reyes returns from his suspension, don’t be surprised if Jeremy Hefner fills this fifth spot.

Next: Bullpen

Bullpen

Closer- Sam Tuivailala

Before even discussing a thing, let us note that Tuivailala has the greatest chance of making the big roster of any of the potential bullpen pitchers in Memphis.  With that out of the way, let us also recognize what could become a genius closer in the way of Tuivailala.

Sam has decent experience in the majors already (3.07 ERA in 2015, 14.2 IP) but even better stuff in AAA (1.60 ERA in 2015, 45.0 IP).  To add to this, Sam commands a devastating 96+ MPH fastball which indicates that with another year of service, Tuivailala could well be the replacement to Trevor Rosenthal after the 2016 campaign or if/should a suitor be found for Rosey.

Setup- Miguel Socolovich

Like Tui before him, Socolovich also has major league experience with St. Louis.  On paper it appears that Socolovich’s time with the Cardinals in 2015 was a success (1.82 ERA in 46 IP), batters were able to hit .227 off of him with a .282 BABIP.  This indicates that the small sample size of 46 innings might not be enough- yet- to have him break camp with the Cardinals.

In AAA, Socolovich appeared in 32.2 innings with Memphis in 2015 and posted a 2.48 ERA.  So why not have him close?  While he is impressive, Socolovich’s fastball, coming in at 90-91 MPH, just doesn’t have the zip or pop of Tuivailala’s fastball.  Having said this, however, either of these two can close for Memphis should one “ride the shuttle.”

Long Relief- Mitch Harris

I like navy man Mitch Harris and wish him great success.  I feel that he can contribute, and has certainly shown this, and would love to see him stretched out in 2016.  This would help his value and would certainly come in handy in St. Louis this season as well.

A quick look at Harris: in 2015, Harris pitched 27 innings in the majors posting a 3.67 ERA, and he pitched 26.2 innings for Memphis posting a 3.38 ERA.  Carrying good-to-great stuff, Harris would be a great long relief candidate for both squads.

Others

Memphis has many other interesting pitchers who will occupy their pen in 2016.  These include Jeremy Hefner (a candidate to fill a starting rotation spot should someone above board the shuttle), Tyler Waldron, and Deck McGuire.  Look for these names throughout this season.

Next: Bonus-STL Lineup

Bonus: STL Lineup

I am very excited about the previous slides and the players on them but I’m also a touch jealous of my writing partners and their proposed rosters for the Cardinals.  To appease my jealousy, I offer you this quick and dirty opening day lineup.

More from St Louis Cardinals Prospects

• Cardinals: Former MLB GM calls Jordan Walker a superstar for 2023
• The Cardinals’ 2020 MLB Draft could end up being historic
• Is the next Harrison Bader already in the Cardinals system?
• Here’s why the St. Louis Cardinals need Moises Gomez
• Should the St. Louis Cardinals promote Jordan Walker to Triple-A?

1. Stephen Piscotty, RF
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Randal Grichuk, CF
5. Brandon Moss, 1B
6. Jhonny Peralta, SS
7. Brayan Pena, C
8. Pitcher
9. Kolton Wong, 2B

Proposed pitching lineup (matches Steve’s rotation).

#1- Adam Wainwright

#2- Carlos Martinez

#3- Michael Wacha

#4- Jaime Garcia

#5- Mike Leake

In conclusion, I’ll admit that there are some wild projections included in this list (read: Gonazles, Cooney, Weaver, etc.) but no good list comes without some meaty projections to sink one’s teeth into.  And, along those lines, how about I propose a few of the MLB squad mates who I suspect will need to bounce through Memphis?  Try this list on for size:

Projected Rehab Appearances

Wainwright (lord, please say I’m wrong)

Molina (we are pretty sure this will happen already)

Jaime Garcia (an easy bet)

Grichuk (I just see him breaking down at some point this season)

Wacha (I’m really concerned about his long-term health)

Adams (he too is an easy injury target)

Projected Demotions

Tommy Pham (I really want 2016 to be a great year for him but I can see him potentially needing a stint with Memphis)

Greg Garcia (I just don’t see him sticking with STL; think he will either be demoted or receive a DFA)

So how is that for some meat to look into?  I’m sure that raises the ire in many readers and, again, let me say that I am desperately hoping I’m way wrong with many of the above-listed names.  At the same time, I’d love to watch each of them travel through Memphis for a few games (selfish intent).

Next: St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler Lyons has value in the bullpen

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I am very excited about this season and even more excited to get these spring games started too.  Follow me on Twitter and let’s discuss as we progress through spring training and beyond!