St. Louis Cardinals: Preseason Roster Predictions Part 2

Who makes the St. Louis Cardinals 25 man roster out of camp this year? Here are my predictions.

There are over 50 St. Louis Cardinals players who wear the jersery when spring training opens in mid February. By the end of March, there can only be 25 players that make the plane to St. Louis with the big team to open the season. Some go to the minors while others get sent home or elsewhere.

A session that is designed to create a circus of hope can end in a setback, progression or a hold steady pattern for players ranging from 20 years old to 35 years old. There are no guarantees. Talent and opportunity carry the reigns in spring training for Major League baseball players.

The Cardinals open the season with several questions scattered throughout their roster. No one needs to tell the Cardinals that they have company this year in the division. For a team that has made the playoffs five straight seasons and 12 out of the last 15 seasons, the Cards don’t need a competition newsletter. The armies are constantly awaiting the Cardinals at the gates. When the grass turns green, it’s time for the Birds to make another push. Can the Cardinals win their 12th World Series in 2016? What will be needed to make that extra push? Can they hit enough to support their league best pitching staff? What stress inducing elements will get in their way?

Baseball is built to wear fans down and drive them insane. Tell me the last time a 162 game season took it easy on you and I will bake three cakes while I wait for an answer. Without further rambling(something I am actually good at), let’s break down the potential opening day roster for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Next: Garcia or Diaz?

The infield is a battle between two utility type players. Who gets the final spot?

Aledmys Diaz or Greg Garcia? With no offense to Dean Anna, it comes down to this in the infield. Diaz was signed as a big talent and hit a wall last summer when he was designated for assignment. When he got back, something clicked. From August through the Arizona Fall League, Diaz tore the cover all the ball. The 25 year old shortstop only spent 14 games with Memphis at the end of the season but showed a huge improvement. He projects, if he continues to rise, as a potential replacement for Jhonny Peralta at shortstop. However, it’s more than likely Diaz starts at Memphis and works his way towards the big club.

Greg Garcia finally made the hurdle jump over Pete Kozma last season and saw increased playing time. Garcia can play second and shortstop, and saw his playing time increase from 14 games and 45 at bats in 2014 to 49 games and 75 at bats in 2015. He has a knack for working the count and is a solid pinch hitter. Rust doesn’t seem to grow on his bat after a week of non action. He has the edge over Diaz due to tenure and experience.

First base is a battle between Brandon Moss, the recovered power hitter, and Matt Adams, the young buck who lost his power and is still trying to find it. They both make the roster with Stephen Piscotty as a backup if the outfield gets crowded.

Kolten Wong is the starter at second base with newcomer Jedd Gyorko backing him up as well as starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Those three will get the lions share of the playing time up the middle, so there isn’t a huge need for Garcia but I still think he makes the club.

Third base is occupied by the Cardinals best all around hitter Matt Carpenter. Gyorko or even Peralta can spell him at third when he needs a day off every two weeks. Nothing fancy or complicated there.

Starters-Moss, Wong, Peralta, and Carpenter.

Backups-Adams, Gyorko and Garcia.

Next: Outfield: Grichuk/Pham tandem

The outfield will be governed by four bodies to start with a fifth hanging around the infield.

The outfield depth is the one spot that could get interesting as 2016 unfolds. In choosing to stick with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty with a fine nod to Tommy Pham, General Manager John Mozeliak is riding overall unproven talent to carry the bulk of production.

He said no to the Yoenis Cespedes dish and Justin Upton platter special, and that’s fine as long as it works. Memphis isn’t bare, especially with the likes of speed demon Charlie Tilson and Anthony Garcia awaiting a call. There isn’t a smoking gun that will be called up to be the savior like the late Oscar Taveras, Grichuk or Piscotty in the past two seasons. So here is how it plays out.

Left field belongs to Matt Holliday. The Hulk of Stillwater, Oklahoma is going to start in left field, bringing his newfound love for beards, batting practice shows, unreal physical condition and chip on his shoulder along for the ride. Holliday hears the rumors about his future after this season carrying some unsure weight.

He is coming off a season where he played the least amount of games since his first year in the bigs. His power is falling off and he is getting older. Will he blow the cover off the door? I think he will provide a 2014 type impact, which is fine. Back to consistent Holliday is just fine. He will not play first base. There’s four bodies ahead of him.

Center Field will be given to Randal Grichuk on opening day, if he makes it through camp without his legs busting or his elbow exploding. Grichuk has 30 HR type power and an all around athleticism that is rare in the game today and his upside puts him ahead of Pham, who will backing up all three outfield positions. With improved health and new contacts, Pham will challenge for more time and be a backup plan for Grichuk or Holliday.

Right Field is all Piscotty. The kid turned heads in 2015 with a half season to remember and has the right combo at the plate(average and power with stingy gap strength) to hold up the production of a right fielder.

Starters-Holliday, Grichuk, and Piscotty

Backups-Pham and Moss

Next: Catchers: Yadi ready or not?

One of the biggest questions in camp is the starting season catcher position. Will a certain eight time gold glover be ready to go?

Yadier Molina is coming off a pair of surgeries on his left thumb because the first one “didn’t take”. Beware of rushing him back. The veteran leader has seen both thumbs be partially torn or hurt the past two seasons so there is no reason to rush him back into action. Getting spring reps and loosening up is fine but an extra two weeks of rehab and stabilizing wouldn’t hurt. I echo the sentiments of my colleague Steven McNeil when I say that Molina on the DL is a real possibility to start the season.

That’s okay, my friends. Why? Brayan Pena has it covered. He’s a defensive minded catcher who will quickly download the pitching staff Molina this spring and has a bat that can find a healthier on base percentage than Yadier can manage these past couple seasons. One of the big upgrades from the offseason was dropping the respected yet weak hitting and fielding Tony Cruz and adding the likable yet worthy Pena. He can hold the fort to begin the season if Molina needs the extra rest. Save Yadier’s arm, knees and durability for the test that awaits in September.

The backup to Pena wouldn’t be Carson Kelly or Mike Ohlman. Kelly needs the continued tutelage and playing time that Springfield provides and Ohlman isn’t a finished product just yet. He hit well in Springfield but unlike Diaz, didn’t perform so well in the Arizona Fall League(cap tip to McNeil). He is young and also needs to play everyday, which will more than likely take place in Memphis.

The backup spot will more than likely be left to Eric Fryer, a journeyman catcher who will serve as the band aid that allows Molina time to heal and younger players time to grow. He doesn’t hit much or do anything particularly well, but over minimal(140 at bats), he has a moderate OBP in his five seasons of MLB service with Pittsburgh and Minnesota. He won’t blow anyone away but he will keep a spot warm if needed.

Starter-Yadier Molina(if ready)

Backup-Brayan Pena, Eric Fryer

Next: Bullpen: Lyons or not?

The bullpen for the St. Louis Cardinals will consist of new faces and an import. Will it include a LOOGY?

The bullpen for the Cardinals could become the biggest strength on this team. It’s a band of closers. Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, Jordan Walden and Jonathan Broxton all have major league closing experience while Korean import Seung Hwan-Oh pitched so well overseas they called him the Final Boss and Stone Buddha. Sam Tuivailala awaits down on the farm to further craft his Major League resume. It’s fastballs all day long for this 2016 Cards relief corps.

Add in the double play hurling Seth Maness and Tyler Lyons as your long lefty and the bullpen is set. I am sorry feel good story lovers but Mitch Harris doesn’t break into this group in my opinion unless an injury occurs. He has average stuff and doesn’t offer anything more than the other seven pitchers and the extra bat will be needed. It’s a 13-12 roster split and you can’t bring another arm.

Randy Choate is gone and with no offense to the impressive Dean Kiekhefer, I like the flexibility Lyons adds out of the pen. He has better stats out of relief than from the rotation and can spot start on a whim, give the imploded starter a clean exit with a 3-4 inning bridge or soak up extra inning duty. You need a guy like Lyons there. Tim Cooney and Marco Gonzales will stay stretched and ready(young arms must be guarded and treated well). Lyons gets the final spot. Take the flexibility and leave the LOOGY. For now.

Next: Rotation: Waino powered

The area with the least amount of drama for the St. Louis Cardinals is the rotation.

Welcome back, Adam Wainwright. You know what’s cool about 2016? The return of a Bronco who has averaged 210 innings, 16 wins, and 177 strikeouts since he took the mound in the rotation back in 2007. When a team loses Lance Lynn and John Lackey and collects Wainwright and free agent everyman Mike Leake, you call that a win folks.

Mix in a third year guy like Michael Wacha who everybody thinks is going to tank, a young stallion like Carlos Martinez and the southpaw who carries the world on his shoulders in Jaime Garcia, and this group is electric. There’s craft, raw power and fluid age. Waino is 34 while El Gallo is just 24 years old age.

Right in the middle are Leake and Garcia. Something tells me this group won’t be record shattering as the 2015 crew but they will do very well and better than the Cubs and Pirates rotations. Great pitching still beats great hitting in the long run year after year.

While Wacha won’t be a Cy Young award winner anytime soon, I don’t think he is going implode or be bad. People expect too much from this kid. That 2013 postseason hero may never come back but this #3 starter will do just fine. Why does Wacha have to be “The Man”? It gets tiring hearing that when Waino and Martinez are better and more able pitchers. Let Wacha be a little more ordinary and he may please you.

Next: Conclusion: Breathe now, fans