St. Louis Cardinals: Preseason Roster Prediction Part One

Starting Rotation

While the five starters are already decided, an injury could certainly throw a wrench into that. We won’t predict an injury here, as we haven’t done that yet. However, one thing that is not set in stone yet is the order. So, I will give the rotation in order of how I think it should go.

#1 SP Adam Wainwright

We all know Waino is the ace of this team. He is the most senior member of the rotation, and is without a doubt the rotation leader. He has been vocal about putting his best foot forward this season. He absolutely still has a lot left in the tank and after missing most of the season last season, he will be fresh and ready to go.

When you look at how he finished the season out of the bullpen, you saw he still he had it in his pitches, as he did at the beginning of the season. I don’t think a solid season with yet another sub 3.00 ERA is out of the question. It is Adam Wainwright we are talking about, he will still be attacking hitters and getting them out with that devastating “Uncle Charlie” curve. He may even wind up as a Cy Young Candidate when it is all said and done.

#2 SP Carlos Martinez

Yet another no doubter here, Carlos Martinez is the second best pitcher on the roster, and has a case for the best stuff in the rotation. Once Adam is no longer around, Carlos will without a doubt be the ace of this staff.

Many people doubted Carlos from the get go last season, and he came out ready to prove them wrong. He had an absolutely fabulous first season as a starter going (stats). He will get even better this season, as he should work deeper into games on a more consistent basis. I would expect him to start to get more efficient, as the season goes, but with the bullpen this year, that may not be necessary.

I am not sure why steamer has him at a 3.49 ERA, especially given the .297 BABIP. This is not a good projection for Martinez. I would not be surprised to see him end up with an ERA close to the 3.01 number he finished with last season, there’s a good shot this could even be lower. All things considered this will be Martinez’ year to shine.

#3 Michael Wacha 

I may sound like a broken record, but this is going to be the most interesting member of the rotation. Up until a certain point last season, Wacha skated by with marginal fastball command, once hitters figured that out, it was over with for him. This is not a 2015 specific thing, it has been evident his entire career. His changeup is that good that it kept hitters off of his fastball for the most part in 2013 and 2014 saw evidence of the same thing before the injury.

If he develops command of his fastball and can spot it, then he will be a very good pitcher and hitters will not be able to tee off on it, while ignoring the changeup. He already has developed a pretty good curve and further refinement of that as well will go a long way in remaining his effectiveness in the rotation.

I really don’t know what we are going to see from Wacha. It is almost like a case of two different players. On one end you have Wacha with a fastball that darts all over the zone and on the other you have Wacha with a fastball that is pinpoint with a little break to it and is under control. If he has the fastball I think a slightly lower ERA than what steamer projects (3.70) is possible. However, without the command his ERA could be worse and close to the 4.00 range.

#4 Jaime Garcia

Jaime could be the pitcher the Cardinals really need this season. He has lights out stuff and could be considered any other team’s ace. However, he is in the fourth spot here. This is primarily due to injury concerns. Garcia surprisingly came back from the thoracic outlet syndrome that ended Chris Carpenter‘s career. He had a very solid year last year, that ended with him having an ERA of 2.43 (3.00 FIP).

While Martinez may have the best stuff on the team, Jaime is not far behind him. Jaime will likely see a regression in the numbers he had last season, especially if he manages to pitch a full season. It has been some time since we have seen Jaime actually be able to do this, so it isn’t hard to see why most predict him to not make a full season of starts next season.

However, I will give Jaime the benefit of the doubt here. If he escapes Spring Training without injury, I don’t see why he can’t stay healthy throughout the season. I think that we could ultimately see Jaime end up with an ERA around 2.80-3.00 next season, depending on how consistent he is and if he can avoid too much regression with his runners left on base percentage (LOB%).

#5 SP Mike Leake 

When the signing happened, I was not impressed. I didn’t think the Cardinals needed to even sign a pitcher to replace the innings lost by Lance Lynn and John Lackey. I was like John Mozeliak and confident with what the team had in Tyler Lyons, Tim Cooney, and Marco Gonzales.

However, the team went ahead and signed Leake anyways. The biggest wildcard in all of this is that Leake will be pitching in a pitchers park at home for the first time in his career. Leake does not have the potential of the first four in the oration, which makes him an obvious number five starter.

While I think that the steamer projection of a 3.99 ERA for Leake is “fair”. I don’t think that it takes into account that Leake will be pitching in Busch Stadium, and the fact that Leake will be helped by getting starts against two of the worst teams in the league in Milwaukee and Cincinnati. While that doesn’t “say much” — his previous ERAs have to hold some wait. Leake’s past three seasons have seen him with an ERA of 3.70 or under.

While the FIP numbers are high. It is unreasonable to think that he cannot repeat those same numbers in a more pitcher friendly ballpark, and with a better defensive catcher behind the plate for the majority of his starts.

Next: Bullpen