St. Louis Cardinals: Preseason Roster Prediction Part One

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Feb 18, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; A general view of an MLB glove on the practice field at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

As we move towards the start of Spring Training games, we are starting a series of St. Louis Cardinals’ roster predictions.

Figuring out who is going to make the team before Spring Training games even start is sometimes a head scratcher. This year the St. Louis Cardinals have made things a little easier, as much of the team that won 100 games last season will be returning. The easy thing about this is that there has yet to be an injury to throw a wrench in the plans of the team and our predictions.

We will tackle things by positions, meaning we will start with catchers, move to the infield, work our way out to the outfield, get into the starters and bullpen after that, while presenting the bench to wrap things up. Once Spring Training is wrapping up, we will revisit things and if things have changed offer up a different outlook on the roster make up.

While I will be going through my predictions here, the rest of the staff will be following suit in the coming days. The great thing about this is that you don’t just get my opinion on how the roster shapes up and who the Cardinals break Spring Training with — you get a whole slew of opinions that will either be close to mine or completely different.

So, if you don’t like my predictions, or you think I am totally crazy, you will get another opinion that you may like a lot better. While there may not be a lot up for debate, if you have any qualms with what I have to say, don’t forget to bring them up in the comments.

Next: The men behind the plate

Feb 18, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (left) listens to pitching coach Derek Lilliquist (right) as catcher Brayan Pena (center) listens in at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Catchers

Remember that this is a pre Spring Training games prediction for how the Cardinals will open the season. With that said, let’s get into who I believe will be the two catchers that the cardinals break camp with.

Brayan Pena – Starter

Before you get all bent out of shape this to me sounds like a no-brainer. Yadier Molina will eventually be the Cardinals’ catcher of choice, but right now there’s no guarantee that he will be ready for Opening Day. With the team’s comments regarding “not rushing” and “patience” with Molina, it seems obvious to me that they are going to err on the side of caution and I have no problem with that.

I would much rather have Molina ready for May-October than make sure Molina is ready for Opening Day and then lose him for half the season because the team rushed him. That means that Brayan Pena will be the receiver for Adam Wainwright in Pittsburgh, marking the first time since 2004 that Yadier Molina has not started behind the plate for the Cardinals on Opening Day.

Pena will be a solid option for the Cardinals to start the season. He has a pretty good bat, and has already started to get to know the staff and is well on his way to erasing any fan memory or preference of Tony Cruz. If Pena starts off well, he could give the Cardinals the affordability to make sure Yadier Molina is 110%.

Eric Fryer – Backup

Fryer is what he is. He is a replacement level backup catcher that has caught a cup of coffee in the big leagues in each of the five seasons for the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Minnesota Twins. In total Fryer has played in a total of 65 games and tallied 140 big league at-bats, totaling seven doubles and two homers in that time.

There’s not much to like about Fryer and his .243 average, the .329 OBP is okay for a backup catcher. However, that’s really about it. There’s just not much to him and that’s okay. As I stated before, he is a replacement level backup, who is there simply to shuttle between AAA and the MLB as needed.

Next: Starting Infield

Sep 21, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; Cincinnati Reds center fielder Jason Bourgeois (30) advances to second on a wild pitch as St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Jhonny Peralta (27) receives the throw during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Infield

The starters are pretty open and shut at every position except for first base, which is an open competition between Brandon Moss and Matt Adams. Who will win the battle is a guessing game at this point, as both guys have likable qualities, but also are a bit of a question mark moving forward.

First Base – Matt Adams

Right now you are reading this and probably getting ready to write a nasty comment or tell me how stupid I am. Initially, I had Brandon Moss penciled in here, and was comfortable with that moving forward. I actually predicted Moss would win the battle a few weeks ago, when I looked at the position at length.

However, my mind has changed for right now. Adams has been challenged and in my opinion has answered the bell to this point, so far. In case you haven’t seen any photos of Adams recently, “Big City” has slimmed down to a “Big Town” and considering his work in going the other way with authority, we could see a big season out of him.

Second Base – Kolten Wong

Wong is an interesting case. He has all the tools to be a top five second basemen in the league, and I believe he made great strides last year in just his second full season in the bigs. Yes, he tired out towards the end of the season, but if he can put together a full season, I believe we are in good standing with him.

I certainly believe we can expect .280-.290 with about 15 homers and 30 doubles from him. I believe he will get better with his plate discipline and continue to see a rise in his OBP. He is going to see a little bit more relief this season in the form of Jedd Gyorko and this will only help improve his play.

Shortstop – Jhonny Peralta

This is a make or break year for Peralta, he is in the third year of a four year deal with the Cardinals, and a strong year at short will keep him in a starting role at short not only this year, but for next year as well. It is nice to see the Cardinals committed to giving him days off finally, as they will likely break camp with two options to spell him. I will get into those options later, when we discuss the bench.

Will we see the first half Jhonny Peralta that carried the Cardinals, or will we see the regressed Peralta that we saw in the second half? I believe that we will likely see a regressed version of first half Peralta, but still consistent.

The power numbers probably won’t be what they were, but the hits will be. The important thing for Peralta is actually for the rest of the lineup to stay healthy and producing.

This is a key because it sets Peralta up for the role he is meant to be, as a supportive offensive threat and not THE offensive threat. If this is how the season goes, I would expect him to be a key cog in the Cardinals’ run at the Central.

Third Base – Matt Carpenter

We could be seeing an MVP type year out of Carpenter. He had a strong year last year, and should see the same type of production this coming year. For those that doubt his power ability, it has been well documented that Carpenter changed his approach and his swing some to develop that power.

This will continue. Not only that, but if he is kept in the leadoff role where he belongs and where he is most comfortable, we should see an improvement of his average and we shouldn’t see him slump for an entire two months. He will also benefit from a deeper bench this year, and could maybe even see a few starts at first base if there is a need.

So, I don’t think it is crazy to think of Carpenter slugging 30 homers with a .290-.300 average and .370+ OBP. If we see this production out of Carpenter, then it should be a good season fro the Cards and the offense should be fine.

Next: Starting Outfield

Sep 24, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Stephen Piscotty (55) is congratulated by Randal Grichuk as he crosses home plate after hitting a solo home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports /

Outfield

Left Field – Matt Holliday

Entering the final year of the big deal that he signed back in 2009, Holliday certainly has a big year ahead of him. Now, his manager certainly thinks that he is going to have a career year at the dish and be the offensive force the Cardinals’ need. However, I think we are going to see a bit of what we saw out of Holliday last year, an OBP machine and a doubles machine.

I don’t think we can count on Holliday to hit more than 15-20 dingers this season. I know he’s in excellent shape and he’s ready to prove the haters wrong, but he’s always in great physical shape, and what player isn’t motivated to prove people wrong?

With the rumors swirling around him being in the mix at first, Holliday is a key factor to the Cards season at whatever position he plays. They might not need him to play there, but if ends up there, it opens up a lot of flexibility for the Cardinals.

All in all, I think .305/.350/.500 is a reasonable expectation for Holliday, with around 18 homers give or take a couple. If Holliday is as fresh, rested, and ready as we all hear, I could be totally wrong. However, the power has been declining for years, and guys don’t normally see increases in that department in their 30s.

Center Field – Randal Grichuk

Here we have one of the biggest wild cards in the Cardinals’ offense. There are many concerns about how Randal can hold up this season, but at the same time, he has so much power potential in his bat that one can’t can’t help but think there is at least 30 homers there. My concern is the elbow, is it really healed?

We won’t truly know until he is faced with the opportunity to make a throw from center with the camera rolling. As we know it’s hard to trust the Cardinals’ medical staff, so we will need to see proof that Grichuk’s elbow is 100%.

If this is the case. Then not only does Grichuk have the potential to be a great hitter, he has the potential to be a really good CF as well. It will be fun to have someone with his speed and arm in center, as well as having his power in center.

While most think 30 homers is where Grichuk will end up, I think that he will probably be in the 20-25 area. I know he has the potential, but I am not so sure he will hold up all season long injury wise.

I will certainly be happy if he does, but I am not sure he will. I think a reasonable projection for him right now is .270/.32o/.490. That may be pushing it a bit right now, but if he has improved I don’t see how he can’t keep a line similar to last season.

Health will be a key moving forward for Grichuk, as will the contact rate. If these things don’t hold up, then we could see a move to Tommy Pham, as Chris Greene predicted.

Right Field – Stephen Piscotty

If there is one Cardinals’ player whose 2015 was definitely not a fluke it is Stephen Piscotty. Piscotty burst onto the scene with the Cardinals hitting .305/.359/.494, with 26 extra base-hits (15 doubles, seven homers, and four triples) in just 63 games with the club. Piscotty did have a .372 BABIP which is an abnormally high number, but that number is not indicative of Piscotty having luck.

It simply is an indication of his low number of games and and high contact ability. Many people are claiming that Piscotty is a right handed version of Matt Carpenter, and I think that it is a pretty good comparison for the right fielder. While Piscotty won’t necessarily have the power that Carpenter is capable of, he certainly should provide a decent amount of pop, and Fangraphs’ Carson Cistulli believes that more power is even “possible if not probable”.

With that said, it will be an interesting sophomore campaign for Piscotty. He could be prone to a bit of regression and that is to be expected, but over a full season of play it’s not impossible to see him hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .290/.350/.450 this season. I would expect him to have somewhere in the range of 15 homers with potential for more.

On the high end, we could be looking at a starting outfield capable of producing 60-70 homers next season.

Next: Starting Rotation

Feb 18, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50) throws during warm up drills at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Starting Rotation

While the five starters are already decided, an injury could certainly throw a wrench into that. We won’t predict an injury here, as we haven’t done that yet. However, one thing that is not set in stone yet is the order. So, I will give the rotation in order of how I think it should go.

#1 SP Adam Wainwright

We all know Waino is the ace of this team. He is the most senior member of the rotation, and is without a doubt the rotation leader. He has been vocal about putting his best foot forward this season. He absolutely still has a lot left in the tank and after missing most of the season last season, he will be fresh and ready to go.

When you look at how he finished the season out of the bullpen, you saw he still he had it in his pitches, as he did at the beginning of the season. I don’t think a solid season with yet another sub 3.00 ERA is out of the question. It is Adam Wainwright we are talking about, he will still be attacking hitters and getting them out with that devastating “Uncle Charlie” curve. He may even wind up as a Cy Young Candidate when it is all said and done.

#2 SP Carlos Martinez

Yet another no doubter here, Carlos Martinez is the second best pitcher on the roster, and has a case for the best stuff in the rotation. Once Adam is no longer around, Carlos will without a doubt be the ace of this staff.

Many people doubted Carlos from the get go last season, and he came out ready to prove them wrong. He had an absolutely fabulous first season as a starter going (stats). He will get even better this season, as he should work deeper into games on a more consistent basis. I would expect him to start to get more efficient, as the season goes, but with the bullpen this year, that may not be necessary.

I am not sure why steamer has him at a 3.49 ERA, especially given the .297 BABIP. This is not a good projection for Martinez. I would not be surprised to see him end up with an ERA close to the 3.01 number he finished with last season, there’s a good shot this could even be lower. All things considered this will be Martinez’ year to shine.

#3 Michael Wacha

I may sound like a broken record, but this is going to be the most interesting member of the rotation. Up until a certain point last season, Wacha skated by with marginal fastball command, once hitters figured that out, it was over with for him. This is not a 2015 specific thing, it has been evident his entire career. His changeup is that good that it kept hitters off of his fastball for the most part in 2013 and 2014 saw evidence of the same thing before the injury.

If he develops command of his fastball and can spot it, then he will be a very good pitcher and hitters will not be able to tee off on it, while ignoring the changeup. He already has developed a pretty good curve and further refinement of that as well will go a long way in remaining his effectiveness in the rotation.

I really don’t know what we are going to see from Wacha. It is almost like a case of two different players. On one end you have Wacha with a fastball that darts all over the zone and on the other you have Wacha with a fastball that is pinpoint with a little break to it and is under control. If he has the fastball I think a slightly lower ERA than what steamer projects (3.70) is possible. However, without the command his ERA could be worse and close to the 4.00 range.

#4 Jaime Garcia

Jaime could be the pitcher the Cardinals really need this season. He has lights out stuff and could be considered any other team’s ace. However, he is in the fourth spot here. This is primarily due to injury concerns. Garcia surprisingly came back from the thoracic outlet syndrome that ended Chris Carpenter‘s career. He had a very solid year last year, that ended with him having an ERA of 2.43 (3.00 FIP).

While Martinez may have the best stuff on the team, Jaime is not far behind him. Jaime will likely see a regression in the numbers he had last season, especially if he manages to pitch a full season. It has been some time since we have seen Jaime actually be able to do this, so it isn’t hard to see why most predict him to not make a full season of starts next season.

However, I will give Jaime the benefit of the doubt here. If he escapes Spring Training without injury, I don’t see why he can’t stay healthy throughout the season. I think that we could ultimately see Jaime end up with an ERA around 2.80-3.00 next season, depending on how consistent he is and if he can avoid too much regression with his runners left on base percentage (LOB%).

#5 SP Mike Leake

When the signing happened, I was not impressed. I didn’t think the Cardinals needed to even sign a pitcher to replace the innings lost by Lance Lynn and John Lackey. I was like John Mozeliak and confident with what the team had in Tyler Lyons, Tim Cooney, and Marco Gonzales.

However, the team went ahead and signed Leake anyways. The biggest wildcard in all of this is that Leake will be pitching in a pitchers park at home for the first time in his career. Leake does not have the potential of the first four in the oration, which makes him an obvious number five starter.

While I think that the steamer projection of a 3.99 ERA for Leake is “fair”. I don’t think that it takes into account that Leake will be pitching in Busch Stadium, and the fact that Leake will be helped by getting starts against two of the worst teams in the league in Milwaukee and Cincinnati. While that doesn’t “say much” — his previous ERAs have to hold some wait. Leake’s past three seasons have seen him with an ERA of 3.70 or under.

While the FIP numbers are high. It is unreasonable to think that he cannot repeat those same numbers in a more pitcher friendly ballpark, and with a better defensive catcher behind the plate for the majority of his starts.

Next: Bullpen

Feb 18, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Seung Hwan Oh (26) looks on during warm up drills at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Bullpen

This is going to be the Cardinals’ greatest strength this coming season. The Cardinals have a total of three former closers vying for roles in the Cardinals’ pen for this season. At least two of them will make the roster, and the third has a good shot. That’s not to mention the others who have either major or minor league experience in closing games who will either be on the roster or close to making the roster.

Closer – Trevor Rosenthal

This one is pretty obvious. We all know how effective Rosie has been as the Cardinals’ closer. Last year he set the record fro the most saves in a single season by a Cardinals’ reliever. Proving that he is without a doubt one of the best closers in the game.

The best thing for Rosenthal this year is that he is going to finally have “backup” in the event that he won’t be available. Last season, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness saw time as the closer and it wasn’t ideal, it led to them wearing out late in the season and into the playoffs.

2016 will be a different year for Rosenthal, as he could see his workload drop a little bit, with the debut of a more effective bullpen. I could see Rosenthal’s load dropping down to about 55-57 innings instead of 65-70 he has been tallying in his career. The saves will still be there for Rosenthal despite steamer’s projection of just 26 saves for the Cardinals’ closer.

The only reason I see his ERA going up is because of lack of appearances, not for effort. I think an ERA around 2.40-2.50 is a decent projection for him, finishing with around 40 saves.

Setup – Kevin Siegrist

After a year that saw Siegrist struggle with a shoulder injury and ineffectiveness, Siegrist had a great year last year. He came back with a vengeance, with an ERA of 2.10 through 81 appearances. However, as I mentioned before Siegrist sputtered down the stretch and in the playoffs — in part because the Cardinals had nobody else to setup Trevor Rosenthal.

This year Siegrist has a ton of help, and he should continue things from last season. I don’t see him continuing the 2.10 ERA, hopefully the 81 appearances never happens again, as he should be fine with somewhere around 65-70 appearances sporadically throughout the season.

With that said, like Rosenthal a 2.40-2.50 ERA should be doable. I have him slated in the setup role right now but I believe that role is going to be a revolving door based on situation.

Setup #2 – Jordan Walden

Walden has been talked about a lot here in the past few weeks, as he is healthy and ready to go this season. This is a huge addition for the Cardinals’ bullpen as not only does it add another dominant weapon out of the pen for the Cardinals, but it also helps Siegrist and Rosenthal do their jobs better, and Walden can step in for Rosenthal if needed.

Walden can strike hitters out with the best of them, as he has a 10.78 K/9 in his career. Steamer believes that will continue, as they have him projected to get around 10.05 K/9, with his 3.30 ERA. If he is healthy, I think that Walden could have an ERA much closer to his career ERA of 3.00.

Regardless, Walden will be a huge contributor for the bullpen for the Cardinals.

Setup #3 – Seung-hwan Oh

While we don’t know much about Oh yet, we know that he comes with a closers pedigree, coming away with 357 saves in his career in Japan and Korea. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs states that we can expect probably a low 90s rising fastball, combined with a plus slider. While there’s no telling what kind of results Oh will get against MLB quality hitters, the experience in pitching out of the pen in high leverage situations is a plus.

Combine this with the fact that the Cardinals have three elite guys ahead of him in Walden, Siegrist, and Rosenthal, with Seth Maness either behind or in front of him depending on the situation.

Middle Relief #1 – Seth Maness

Having the four guys ahead of him that he does, allows for Maness to return the role that he his best at. That is the “fire-man” role. This is a great thing because it take Maness out of regular use. While Maness only pitched in 63.1 innings last season, as opposed to the 80.1 before hand, he was used a career high 76 times.

This and the 80.1 innings the previous year played havoc on his arm, as he finished the season with an ERA of 4.26. The hop is that with the Cardinals’ bullpen as is, Maness should see a bit of a relief in terms of appearances this season. While I don’t think he’ll be as low as 45 appearances, he should see somewhat of a dip, probably somewhere in the area of 60-65 appearances.

Look for Maness to continue to get hitters to hit the ball in the ground, as Maness has a career 59.7% ground ball rate. If that number can go up at all and the appearances go down, Maness should return to the sub 3.00 ERA that he had in 2013-2014.

Middle/Long Relief #2 Tyler Lyons

This may be a crazy idea and may not work out. However, with the Cardinals reportedly going with just 11 pitchers to start the season, the team will have a decision to make regarding this spot. Do they value the guy who has come up with the organization and is still young, or are they going to go with the guy who is a washed up version of himself in Jonathan Broxton.

Look, I don’t mean to be mean, but Broxton is not who he once was. He gave up a ton of long balls last season with both the Cardinals and the Brewers. The Cardinals won’t need another right-handed option out of the bullpen with Oh and Walden both ready to go. However, as an option to be a long reliever and the go to guy against lefties, Tyler Lyons is absolutely the better play here.

Lyons in a bullpen only situation for a year, should have an ERA lower than the totals he has put up as a starter. Lyons has shown to be effective in this role and should get the nod over Broxton, despite the contract.

Next: The Reinforcements

Sep 17, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Brandon Moss (21) breaks his bat while grounding out in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports /

The Bench

Brandon Moss 1B/LF

This is absolutely conditional on Adams beating him out fro the starting job, but I think that is what is going to happen. Moss will be a valuable commodity off of the bench who should probably gather around 300 AB. He may even find himself hitting against more lefties than not in place of Adams.

Moss has said that the power should be back now that his hip is finally healed. So, expecting 15-20 homers from Moss in a backup situation isn’t out of this world. If there is an injury to one of the OF, Moss will see his playing time increase as he will then become the first option off of the bench in the outfield.

Tommy Pham OF

Tommy Pham finally got his chance last season with the Cardinals, as he got the call twice last season, and played in a total of 52 games in relief of Jon Jay and Randal Grichuk (should have had more). Pham finished the season hitting .268/.347/.477, with 19 extra base-hits (11 doubles, five homers, three triples). Pham even had a home run in the playoffs off of the bench.

Pham will be the perfect fourth OF. He can play all three positions and has a nice blend of power and speed, making him not only a great pinch hitting option late in the game, but also a pinch run/defensive replacement option as well. While he may not have the raw power of Grichuk or the contact ability of Piscotty, he is an excellent option off of the bench, and can handle things if any of the OF get injured.

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Jedd Gyorko 2B/SS

Here we have our first infield catalyst off of the bench. Gyorko was acquired in November for fan favorite Jon Jay. Gyorko is going to be the right-handed compliment for Kolten Wong, with a tad more pop. Much like Pham Gyorko doesn’t have the contact of the guy in front of him, but the pop and versatility in the infield will be well used in his spot.

Gyorko is going to need to elevate his contact rate in order to keep the two guys behind him on the bench behind him. If he can provide contact at a rate around .250-.260, he may keep his spot, but if not the higher average and OBP of the other two may indeed push him down to Memphis. Regardless his impact is going to be best seen against lefties, so don’t be surprised if he sees the most time against them.

If he can provide some value off of the bench and give Peralta and Wong a rest he will give Mike Matheny something he hasn’t had — a good offensive middle infield option.

Greg Garcia 2B/SS/3B

Garcia has been on the Memphis-St. Louis shuttle for quite some time and has really not gotten his shot to stay with the team, despite being better offensively than both Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso. Garcia can provide good value as a decent defensive option at three positions (second, short, and third). Garcia provides a really good on base ability that Gyorko really cannot provide.

However, Garcia does not have the pop that Gyorko has. He has displayed a small amount in his career with 10 homers and 20 doubles in 2013 for Memphis, and a few homers in his career at the big league level, but expecting more than that as a backup is asking for too much. Defensively, Garcia is a little more limited at third and short, and is much better at second. This makes the next player here all the more likely.

If the Cardinals do decided to go to 11 pitchers and 14 hitters, Garcia should make the roster as a backup to Peralta and Wong.

Aledmys Diaz – SS/3B/2B

I have been saying this since the end of the season last season. I even wanted Diaz to get the call up in September, when rosters expanded. However, Diaz was kept in Memphis and continued to improve.