St. Louis Cardinals: Five bold predictions for 2016

One of the first baseman will surprise us

I’m hedging my bets a little bit with this one, but I think it’s still fairly bold on my part. Really, most don’t seem to expect much out of either Brandon Moss or Matt Adams (although others are more hopeful than I’m willing to be), and I’m betting the St. Louis Cardinals get a good deal of production out of one of them.

In their careers, neither has topped 3 fWAR, but I’m guessing that one of them will in 2016, mashing at least 25 home runs while batting a reasonable .270/.330/.480 in what will be a career season, thus turning an apparent hole in our lineup into a strength.

Which one will it be? If I had to guess, I’d choose Adams and hope for a return to his 2013 form. There’s also the fact that he’s lost some weight and put on some muscle, as Steven McNeil noted a few weeks ago. It’s really not impossible to see him having a nice bounce back season, and it wasn’t that long ago that many thought of Adams as the first baseman of the future.

That said, Moss has shown the ability to be productive more consistently and may actually be the safer bet. It would be a great season for him, but unlike Adams, he actually has hit 25 home runs in a season and a repeat performance is probably more likely than a breakout. Again, neither is terribly likely to put up those numbers, which is what makes this a bold prediction, even though I’ve left myself two ways to be right instead of just one.

Just to clarify, I’m not betting that a combined effort between the two will produce similar numbers — if that happens, my prediction is wrong and you can call me out on it.

Now, on to the final prophecy!

Next: Will Jaime Garcia be the picture of good health?