St. Louis Cardinals: Five bold predictions for 2016

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Sep 4, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Carlos Martinez (18) throws the ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /

Adam Wainwright won’t be the best starting pitcher

There is little doubt that Adam Wainwright is the Cardinals’ ace, and he’ll undoubtedly be the number one starter in the rotation, but that doesn’t inherently mean that he’ll be the best starter that the St. Louis Cardinals have. And I’m betting that he won’t be.

How can I say that? His ERA- has fallen every season since 2012, dropping from 102 to a minuscule 42 last season (even if that was over just 28 innings). What do I see that leads me to believe that Wainwright won’t dominate the field again?

Well, it’s nothing in Wainwright at all, actually, but rather his competition. Last year, Carlos Martinez‘s ERA- was 78, and he’s going to get better. In 2015, Martinez finished the season with a 3.01 ERA, in spite of three games where he gave up over 5 earned runs.

If you take those three starts out of the equation, his ERA was 2.23. That would have ranked 4th in all of baseball.

Let that sink in for a minute.

I’m not saying that he’ll do that this season, because those starts weren’t entirely flukes. But I do think that they were a young pitcher learning how to pitch. So perhaps things even out a little bit and you see a pitcher with a 2.50 or a 2.60 ERA. If Adam Wainwright struggles at all coming off of a season where he didn’t pitch much, it’ll be hard for him to keep up with the young gun. And I predict that he won’t.

Next: Can Matt Carpenter put it all together in 2016?

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