St. Louis Cardinals: Five questions ahead of Spring Training

1. Who wins the first base battle?

It’s the biggest question heading into the 2016 season — who takes over at first base?

We often hear about Spring Training competitions, but most of the time they are for that fourth outfield spot or that last bench spot. These “competitions” are often underwhelming, but this is one battle that should be worth watching in March.

Matt Adams and Brandon Moss will be the main guys to duke it out for first base. Our colleague, Chris Greene discussed at length the Cardinals first base options, and you can check that out here too— well worth the read.

When Adams broke out in 2013 with 17 homers in just 296 at bats, expectations were sky-high among Cardinals fans — myself included. I saw Adams as the future of the Cardinals at first base and an exciting power-hitting option. Instead, in 2014 Big City hit just 15 homers in 527 at bats, and he only played in 60 games in 2015 after tearing his quad

Moss is the other option. After hitting 15 homers in 337 at bats for the Cleveland Indians, Moss came over to the Cardinals in a late July trade and only managed four homers in 132 at bats. But as Dan Buffa has written, Moss promises more power this season and feels healthy heading into March.

Prediction:

This will be a fun competition to watch. If both Moss and Adams are really healthy, then either guy winning the role out of Spring Training wouldn’t surprise me one way or the other. Still, I believe Moss is the guy you will see penciled in at first base come Opening Day. The 32-year old has a better track record than Adams and averages 23 homers and 75 RBI a year. I’ll take it a step further and say that Moss hits 27 taters this season and racks up 90 plus RBI. If he does, the Cardinals will gladly take that offensively at a position they desperately need strong production from.

Next: Does Matt Holliday Bounce Back?

2. Can Matt Holliday bounce back?

Last season was a rough one for outfielder Matt Holliday. Plagued by quad injuries, the left fielder played in just 73 games last season for St. Louis.

Still, Holliday has been one of the most durable and reliable players in the MLB. Don’t believe me? Last season was the first in his 12-year career that Holliday played in less than 121 games. With the Cardinals, the 36-year old has averaged right under 135 games played a year. Since coming over to St. Louis in 2009, Holliday has averaged about 20 homers and 83 RBI a season for the Redbirds. Landon Clapp wrote back in January that Holliday is key to revitalizing the Cardinals offense in 2016, and I absolutely agree.

The Cardinals finished 24th in runs scored and 23rd in slugging last season. Holliday holds a career .519 slugging percentage. The Cardinals’ offense needs that kind of stability and production from their left fielder, and I believe he will provide it once again in 2016. But it is a question of health. Holliday has never dealt with injuries that have sidelined him for so long before.

Spring Training should provide a good look at if Holliday truly has returned to health and can provide a bounce back season. I’d imagine he will get a decent amount of at bats this spring to get game-ready and back in the groove. The fact that Holliday has been working out since December has to bode well for the Cardinals, too.

As I wrote last week, Holliday has continued working out at first base, and last season’s injuries could play a role in a decision to move him to a less physically demanding position, at least when it comes to chasing down balls in the outfield. While those first base workouts mean virtually nothing right now, it could provide an interesting plot twist into Holliday’s comeback campaign. We’ll see how it plays out.

Prediction:

If the quad issues don’t resurface in 2016, I believe Holliday will put together a solid season offensively. He has to. The 36-year old, much like teammate Adam Wainwright, is motivated and will be looking to prove critics wrong in 2016. FanGraphs projects Holliday at 17 homers, 77 RBI with a .279 BA and a .448 slugging percentage. I believe Holliday hits 20 plus homers with 95 plus RBI and has a batting average closer to .300 while slugging about .490 in 2016. Who wouldn’t take those numbers?

Next: Thumbs Up For Yadi?

3. Will Yadier Molina be ready for Opening Day?

The question burns in the minds of Cardinals fans more than most of the others. The bad part about this is it’s a waiting game. We likely won’t see much of Yadier Molina at all in Spring Training games as he works to come back from two injuries on his torn left thumb ligament and building strength back in the thumb.

Today, there was good news on the Yadi front. Derrick Goold reported that Molina participated in informal workouts with his cast off and could be two weeks away from catching. Molina told Goold that he still hopes to be ready for Opening Day. Cardinals fans will be praying that is the case and Molina has no setbacks this spring.

It’s no secret that Yadi is the anchor for this Cardinals team. Molina is the glue that holds this pitching staff together, and he’s done so for the better part of eight years.

Molina has the hardware to prove that he’s one of the best catchers in the history of the game — see his 8-straight Gold Gloves. More than that, since 2010 Molina ranks first among all MLB catchers in DEF rating at 98.6 (the next closest is Russell Martin at 77). Molina also ranks second during that span with a 22.3 WAR.

The Cardinals without Molina is like fishing without any bait — it just won’t work. St. Louis needs a full season from its All-Star catcher.

Prediction:

My prediction? Molina won’t quite be ready for Opening Day. He tried to push the envelope last season in the playoffs and play through the injury, but that did not work out so well. As much as I know that Yadi will work his tail off to be ready to go for this team on Opening Day, I believe the Cardinals will exercise extreme caution and won’t let him get behind the plate until they are 100 percent sure he is ready.

This is a big reason why Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak went out and got former Cincinnati Reds catcher Brayan Pena. The 11-year veteran is a viable backup option (much more so than former Cardinals backup Tony Cruz), and that will take a lot of pressure off of Molina to rush back from his thumb injury. If Molina isn’t quite ready to go for Opening Day, I’d expect him to be back a week after that at the latest.

Next: Who Bats Lead-off?

4. Does Matt Carpenter stay in the leadoff spot?

This is a question that should get a lot of play during Spring Training if nothing more than for the fact that Kolten Wong has adamantly stated that he wants to bat leadoff for the Cardinals in 2016.

The problem is — Wong doesn’t quite have the credentials. In 215 at bats at leadoff last season, Wong hit just .247 with a .303 OBP — not quite what you want from your leadoff man. Still, I see both sides of this debate.

Here’s what I can’t help but think — what if Matt Carpenter can continue his power binge out of the second or third spot of the Cardinals’ lineup? This Cardinals offense needs all the production it can get.

Carpenter blasted 28 homers, 44 doubles and had 84 RBI with a .871 OPS in 2015. What would those numbers have looked like with possibly more opportunities to drive in runs batting in the second or third slot? I know, I know. The Cardinals tried out Carpenter in the two-hole for 69 games last year and his OPS dropped to .700 with just six homers. But maybe, just maybe, Carpenter was trying to hard. Not to mention, the third baseman was sidelined for a weekend series last May due to cited fatigue and an accelerated heart rate.

Most will say that Carpenter is better suited for leadoff because he is more comfortable there and his numbers simply back that up. Fair enough, I can’t disagree too much with the numbers. Still, I believe this question gets some play in Spring Training and Wong gets some starts in the leadoff spot to state his case. That could also mean that Carpenter gets some starts a bit lower in the lineup to see if he can get comfortable in a different spot and not feel the pressure of trying to do too much.

Prediction:

I believe Carpenter will be the guy to step up to the plate first for the Cardinals come Opening Day. His numbers there are simply fantastic. But again, much of this question rides on if the Cardinals third baseman can find that same comfortability in other spots of the lineup and continue to produce numbers like he did in 2015.

If Wong can also make a strong impression in Spring Training by significantly increasing his OBP, striking out less, and wreaking some havoc on the bases, I could see him taking over as the Cardinals eventual leadoff man in the future and an exciting one at that. But it’s unlikely to happen in 2016.

Next: Can Randal Grichuk Provide the Power?

5. Can Randal Grichuk be the Cardinals’ power source?

Four years. That’s how long its been since a Cardinals hitter has reached 30 home runs or more. That season it was Carlos Beltran who accomplished the feat with 32, and he was the only one to reach 30 or more.

St. Louis is starving for power, for majestic homers, those moonshots that make your jaw drop. Cardinals outfielder Randal Grichuk just might be the answer. Grichuk blasted 17 homers in just 323 at bats last season, and that has left Cardinals fans excited about his potential and wondering what could be next. 

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Grichuk has thought about his power potential, too. About a month ago, the 24-year old told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that 30 homers “is a realistic goal if we had to set something on there…I feel pretty confident if I can get in a little groove I should be able to get to.”

I like hearing this. Most players give vanilla answers when it comes to statistical goals for a season, but Grichuk stepped right up to let fans know that he is shooting for a specific goal.

It seems that health might be Grichuk’s greatest adversary in achieving his 30-homer goal. The elbow injury he suffered last year seems to be behind him, but you never know when those can flare back up, which is cause for worry.

Still, a big reason why the Cardinals elected not to sign a power bat like Yoenis Cespedes or Justin Upton, is because of the potential and power that Grichuk flashed in 2015. The Cardinals will need him to be a main power source if the offense is going to improve this year.

So, can he do it?

Prediction:

I believe Grichuk will fall short of 30 homers in 2016, let’s say 26. My reason being is that elbow injury. Of course, I hope that the center fielder stays healthy all season, but I won’t be surprised if his elbow barks again and he has to take some time off in 2016. Let’s hope that’s not the case.

If Grichuk can stay fully healthy this season with no major injuries, then I can see him reaching 30 home runs or more. Either way, he should be a staple in the Cardinals offense for years to come.

Bonus question:

Does Jaime Garcia stay healthy?

Did you think I’d forgotten about Jaime Garcia? It’s not a Spring Training piece without this question thrown in there. My short prediction, I believe Garcia makes about 20 starts this season. The left-hander recorded a 3.00 FIP in 129.2 IP last season for St. Louis, proving that if healthy he can be one of the more dominant pitchers in the game. That “if healthy” seems to always be the question for Garcia, though.

For a more in-depth look at Garcia’s 2016 expectations, check out Steven McNeil’s piece here.

Next: Will Cards Rotation Be Tops In the NL Central?

We all know you are excited Cardinals’ nation. So, what do you think about these issues, let us know in the comments section!