St. Louis Cardinals: A First Base Battle

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big question mark at first base, where will the answer come from?

It’s nearly February, which means it’s nearly Spring, which means it’s nearly Baseball. If you’re anything like me, that thought alone brings a smile to your face. Unfortunately, it isn’t February, and it isn’t Spring, which means it isn’t Baseball. So, for now, we’ll have to continue to settle for talking about baseball, which is a lot less fun, but will have to do.

Today, we’re going to pass the time by pondering the St. Louis Cardinals’ first base situation — which is equal parts intriguing and uninspiring. As I see it, there are three options:

1. Matt Adams is our starting first baseman and plays the bulk of the time at first.
2. Brandon Moss is our starting first baseman and plays the bulk of the time at first.
3. The baseball gods smile upon us and offer an alternative option via a last minute trade, signing, or surprise prospect.

Just so that we’re on the same page, that third option is so unlikely it’s barely worth discussing, but since there isn’t any real baseball, I figure we might as well kill our time with that. The other two choices are far more likely and far less exciting, so we’ll weigh them first.

Before we begin, let’s look at some expectations. According to Fangraphs, first baseman across the league hit a collective .259/.336/.444 in 2015, good for a 113 wRC+. And no one cares about the glove because no one looks for first baseman with good gloves. Sure, you like it when you find one who has a good glove, but that’s a bonus, not a requirement. So in evaluating our options, we’re looking for a pretty big bat and nothing else. Let’s get started!

Matt Adams — ZiPS Projection: .272/.308/.433

It’s easy to look at Matt Adams and be excited. It’s equally easy to look at Matt Adams and be concerned. In 2013 the lefty burst onto the scene with a strong .284/.335/.503 campaign across about 100 games filling in for Allen Craig. It looked as if we had found yet another diamond in the rough and our first baseman of the future. With 17 home runs down the stretch, he certainly seemed to be the kind of power threat the St. Louis Cardinals needed.

2014 was concerning, but not disastrous as Adams posted a .288/.321/.457 line, but managed only 15 home runs in nearly a full season. Compared to preseason expectations (which frequently drifted into 30 or 40 home runs for the season), it was a disappointment. It’s true that he was above average, but his 116 wRC+ was a pretty severe drop off from the 135 mark of 2013.

Then came last year. Sometime between 2014 and 2015, Matt Adams forgot how to hit entirely. Before winding up on the DL, he managed a pretty terrible .240/.280/.377 line giving him a wRC+ of just 78. That was not good, and now a lot of people are — very justifiably — down on Adams.

I must admit that I wouldn’t be excited to see Matt Adams as our starting first baseman to open the season, but I do think I would be hopeful. If you imagine 2014 as a sophomore slump, and 2015 as an injury-hampered fluke where poor health impaired his abilities, it doesn’t seem like we’re all that far away from his 2013 performance (try squinting if you can’t see it). Is it likely that he bounces back with 25 home runs and a .280/.330/.500 line in 2016? Probably not. But would I be stunned if he managed that? Not entirely.

Brandon Moss — ZiPS Projection: .237/.319/.444

ZiPS doesn’t like Moss’ contact skills as much as Adams’, and it doesn’t seem to think that he’s the better overall hitter. If Moss were right handed, a platoon would make a lot of sense. Since we have two lefties instead, the St. Louis Cardinals have a problem.

As recently as 2014, Brandon Moss was a perfectly cromulent hitter. From 2012-2014, he averaged 25 home runs with a .254/.340/.504 line. If he did that in 2016, he would make a fine starting first baseman and I would be happy to have him.

Unfortunately for all of us, he’s had one hip surgery and a pretty terrible season since the end of 2014. The real question with Moss is do you trust that his hip is healed and that he can produce that way again? I’m less than convinced. If he’s ready to roll and shows up in spring with the patience and power that first earned him a spot on a Major League roster, then he will be the answer to the Cardinals’ problem. If not, then we have to look elsewhere.