St. Louis Cardinals: A First Base Battle

The St. Louis Cardinals have a big question mark at first base, where will the answer come from?

It’s nearly February, which means it’s nearly Spring, which means it’s nearly Baseball. If you’re anything like me, that thought alone brings a smile to your face. Unfortunately, it isn’t February, and it isn’t Spring, which means it isn’t Baseball. So, for now, we’ll have to continue to settle for talking about baseball, which is a lot less fun, but will have to do.

Today, we’re going to pass the time by pondering the St. Louis Cardinals’ first base situation — which is equal parts intriguing and uninspiring. As I see it, there are three options:

1. Matt Adams is our starting first baseman and plays the bulk of the time at first.
2. Brandon Moss is our starting first baseman and plays the bulk of the time at first.
3. The baseball gods smile upon us and offer an alternative option via a last minute trade, signing, or surprise prospect.

Just so that we’re on the same page, that third option is so unlikely it’s barely worth discussing, but since there isn’t any real baseball, I figure we might as well kill our time with that. The other two choices are far more likely and far less exciting, so we’ll weigh them first.

Before we begin, let’s look at some expectations. According to Fangraphs, first baseman across the league hit a collective .259/.336/.444 in 2015, good for a 113 wRC+. And no one cares about the glove because no one looks for first baseman with good gloves. Sure, you like it when you find one who has a good glove, but that’s a bonus, not a requirement. So in evaluating our options, we’re looking for a pretty big bat and nothing else. Let’s get started!

Matt Adams — ZiPS Projection: .272/.308/.433

It’s easy to look at Matt Adams and be excited. It’s equally easy to look at Matt Adams and be concerned. In 2013 the lefty burst onto the scene with a strong .284/.335/.503 campaign across about 100 games filling in for Allen Craig. It looked as if we had found yet another diamond in the rough and our first baseman of the future. With 17 home runs down the stretch, he certainly seemed to be the kind of power threat the St. Louis Cardinals needed.

2014 was concerning, but not disastrous as Adams posted a .288/.321/.457 line, but managed only 15 home runs in nearly a full season. Compared to preseason expectations (which frequently drifted into 30 or 40 home runs for the season), it was a disappointment. It’s true that he was above average, but his 116 wRC+ was a pretty severe drop off from the 135 mark of 2013.

Then came last year. Sometime between 2014 and 2015, Matt Adams forgot how to hit entirely. Before winding up on the DL, he managed a pretty terrible .240/.280/.377 line giving him a wRC+ of just 78. That was not good, and now a lot of people are — very justifiably — down on Adams.

I must admit that I wouldn’t be excited to see Matt Adams as our starting first baseman to open the season, but I do think I would be hopeful. If you imagine 2014 as a sophomore slump, and 2015 as an injury-hampered fluke where poor health impaired his abilities, it doesn’t seem like we’re all that far away from his 2013 performance (try squinting if you can’t see it). Is it likely that he bounces back with 25 home runs and a .280/.330/.500 line in 2016? Probably not. But would I be stunned if he managed that? Not entirely.

Now we get to the point where we get to dream a little bit. If you’re uninspired by both Adams and Moss, then here are your other choices:

The Free Agent: Ian Desmond

Some of you are going to insist that Ian Desmond is a shortstop, not a first baseman. And you would definitely be right. But if you shuffle things around a little bit, he could solve the problem at first base. By sliding Peralta to 3rd you help his defense, and Matt Carpenter would have been a top-10 first baseman by wRC+ in 2015. Just like that, the St. Louis Cardinals have a first baseman. Of course, not all of us are sold on Desmond (myself included), but nonetheless, it isn’t totally impossible.

The Trade Target: Carlos Gonzalez

I’m not big on Carlos Gonzalez to be honest, but he’s a bat, and there’s been some talk of the Cardinals trading for him. If they were to do that, Stephen Piscotty could slide over to first as he did at the end of last season and hopefully provide the kind of bat that we would need in a first baseman. Of course the glove might be an issue, but remember what we said about first basemen? Gloves are bonuses, not requirements.

The In-House Candidate: Carlos Peguero

Recently, the Cardinals signed Carlos Peguero to a minor league deal. He’s an outfielder by trade, but he’d be well suited for a move to first, if he can figure out his contact skills. His power is prolific by any measure, but he’s struggled to put the ball in play enough to make that power valuable. Perhaps John Mabry can set him on the right path and Peguero can turn into a superstar for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Next: Moss AND Adams ready to take over at First Base

So there we have it. Those are all of the options I see for the Cardinals, realistic or otherwise. Have any others? Let us know in the comments! In the meantime, let us know who you think is the best option for the Cardinals at first base.