St. Louis Cardinals: The next left-handed specialist

1. Tyler Lyons

All of the sudden, Tyler Lyons has transitioned from a young pitching prospect into a middling 28-year-old vet who’s future as a big-league starter is beginning to look bleak. You have to love the guy for his attitude, he would probably go out and throw 1o innings of mop-up baseball if you asked him to.

Lyons can be a quality gap-filler in long-relief and spot-start opportunities, but is there a way to give him a chance to take on some higher leverage situations?

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That left-handed specialist job seems to be his best shot, although I’m not sold on his ability to handle impact-bat lefties in pressure cooker at-bats where the Cardinals must have an out.

Against left-handed bats in 2016, Lyons was anything but dominant. His opponent batting average of .232 against lefties wasn’t bad, but not nearly as dominant as you would want in a guy that would face left-handers exclusively with the game on the line.

His opponent on base percentage of .317 against lefties is even more cause for concern. He issued six walks in 63 plate appearances against lefties in 2015 while hitting one of them. He allowed three home runs to left-handed batters, and his 2.67 K/9 rate against lefties is nearly half of the 4.89 K/p he posted against right-handed batters in 2015.

Lyons seems destined to the spot-start/long-relief role moving forward barring a jump in velocity, the development of a put away secondary pitch, or a mechanical change (i.e. dropping his arm slot) to make him more difficult on lefties.

That isn’t to say that re-directing his focus to becoming dominant against lefties couldn’t get him over the hump, just that it doesn’t seem likely based on his numbers of the past and his lack of put away stuff.

Next: The Prospect

2. Marco Gonzales

There is still a lot to be learned about the now 23-year-old former first round draft pick from the University of Gonzaga. Marco Gonzales burst onto the scene in the 2014 playoffs, less than a calendar year removed from winning the John Olerud Award (best college two-way player) for his efforts as a first baseman and staff Ace with the Bulldogs.

Gonzales picked up two wins in relief during the 2014 NLDS, showing off his promising command and makeup that John Mozeliak fell in love with when he took him 19th overall in 2013.

Arm troubles blew up Marco’s 2015 campaign as he was expected to compete for a fifth spot in the rotation or a long-relief/spot start role. Coming back in 2016, Gonzales is looking to bounce back and have an impact with the big club, and he says that he won’t confine himself to any particular role.

Many would say that it is way too early to give up on Gonzales as a starter, and I would have to agree. There isn’t anywhere near a large enough sample size to determine whether or not Gonzales could be successful as a big league starter.

Gonzales’ numbers against lefties were good in 2014, albeit with just 32 plate appearances to go off of. Lefties slashed just .143/.219/.179 against Gonzales in those at-bats. He did not surrender a long ball and he did have a 2.5 K/walk ratio.

Again, though, Gonzales’ changeup has the potential to be devastating against right-handed batters, and his makeup really lends itself to projecting out as a starting pitcher. There are similarities across the board between Gonzales and Jaime Garcia, making bullpen relegation an unlikely scenario.

The question to be asked is what the nature of Gonzales’ arm problems might be. If it was overuse-type issue, meaning that perhaps his arm couldn’t handle starting pitcher innings, would the bullpen be a better fit? In that scenario, would Gonzales be able to handle pitching back-to-back games or three days in a row?

We will find out a lot about Gonzales this spring and into the season, but a lefty-specialist role doesn’t seem particularly likely.

Next: The next LOOGY

3. Dean Kiekhefer

Dean Kiekhefer (26) was drafted in the 37th round of the 2007 draft by the Indians, and has spent time in Memphis the past couple of seasons. He has posted sub-3.00 ERA’s in both 2014 and 2015 over a combined 116 1/3 innings pitched with the Redbirds.

Kiekhefer is said to have a knockout slider that he works off of his two-seam fastball that runs to the left side of the plate. He does not over power guys, and his lack of an established changeup makes him a pure LOOGY guy at the big league level.

Kiekhefer struck out just 37 batters in 59 2/3 innings last season, but the fact that he only walked seven — good for a 5.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio — over his 50 appearances makes him intriguing as a LOOGY prospect.

“I’m tremendously impressed with Kiekhefer so far. I don’t think he’s walked a hitter and has lots of swing and miss in his pitches. He’s another fine pitching prospect.”-Bernie Pleskoff, MLB.com

As mentioned in our breakdown of Kiekhefer’s profile as a left-handed prospect, praise for his stuff and the prospects of him having an impact at the Major League level are coming from all directions.

When asked about Kiekhefer on scout.com, Bernie Pleskoff of mlb.com said “I’m tremendously impressed with Kiekhefer so far. I don’t think he’s walked a hitter and has lots of swing and miss in his pitches. He’s another fine pitching prospect.” 

Kiekhefer’s .267/.290/.311 opposing slash line against lefties in 2015 doesn’t scream dominance, but it does illustrate two points. Kiekhefer might give up a hit to a lefty, but he most certainly isn’t going to give in and walk him. When he does give up a hit, it isn’t going to be for extra bases. Walks and extra base hits are devastating to LOOGY pitchers, and Kiekhefer doesn’t give up any of either.

Should Kiekhefer have success this spring in a LOOGY role, he will undoubtedly be the candidate most fit for the specialist position. He has the most experience in that type of role, and his pitching repertoire and makeup seem best fit for first shot at the job.

Next: Carlos Martinez key cog in Cardinals rotation

The bottom line is that baseball is a results driven business, though. Should Kiekhefer struggle in the role, look for St. Louis to consider one of it’s other young left-handers to lock down the LOOGY job in the Cardinal bullpen.