St. Louis Cardinals: Leadoff options are tricky

If the St. Louis Cardinals are going to replace Matt Carpenter at the top of the order, unconventional methods will be required.

The winter wait has come and gone. Yoenis Cespedes won’t be a St. Louis Cardinals’ outfielder folks, so let’s think about what the Birds have and not what may still lurk on the menu. In order to generate more offense, the Cardinals may have to shift their player with the top OPS(Matt Carpenter) out of the leadoff spot.

That’s not an easy task and only works in a vacuum styled conversation. In reality, the reasons to not move Matt Carpenter from the leadoff are simple. He’s very good in that spot.

In 1,457 at bats over the past three seasons, Carpenter has a slash line of .300/.368/.472 while hitting leadoff. He became a power source in 2015, cranking 28 home runs, 22 of them came while hitting leadoff. Call it situational bias or just direct thinking, but Carp hits well there.

At the Winter Warmup, he admitted to feeling “most comfortable” in the leadoff spot. That doesn’t mean he would be against moving to another spot. So let’s say Mike Matheny calls him tomorrow and says he is moving down. Who hits #1? Let’s dig into some options.

Next: Mr. Hawaii

1. Kolten Wong

Kolten Wong is an ideal candidate for the leadoff spot when you look at his makeup. Here is a guy who combines speed, power and the ability to move around the bases.

Wong is capable of stealing bases and also hitting the ball clean out of the park, depending on the streak or timing of the at bat. That is the catch with Wong. He is streaky and doesn’t always produce the kind of at bats that are needed to be given at the top of the lineup.

During 215 at bats in 2015, Wong’s on base percentage was only .303 and he hit just .247. That isn’t going to cut it. He stole five bases but more often than not, was too worried about his at bats before or the one coming next. He looked hesitant on the bases.

One of Wong’s overall drawbacks and learning curves in the majors is cleaning up his mental game. He often takes a bad play into the next inning or at bat and since he has the same wiring as every one of us, it carves into his focus and pivots the action that is about to occur.

At the Winter Warmup, Wong was basically writing himself into the lineup card as a leadoff hitter because he also noticed how much of a power threat Carpenter had become and he imagined, like all of us, what that could do in the third spot instead of the top spot. He is a team player and also a kid still trying to figure out his swing.

In Wong I see two types of hitters. A lefty with a sudden death quick swing that can do big damage, as evidence by his pair of double digit seasons. I also see a kid trying to get on base more and find the balance in his swing at the plate. As he makes that transition, I don’t think the leadoff spot is for Wong. Not just yet.

Next: The Bald Hulk like Dude

#3 Stephen Piscotty

Something I overheard from the Warmup was Stephen Piscotty‘s name being tossed into the leadoff bat bucket, via St. Louis Post Dispatch’s Derrick Goold. Interesting choice, so I thought about it.

Piscotty finished up 2015 as one of the hottest hitting Cardinals. He swept onto the scene in late July, and just kept hitting from that point until the final out of Game 5 of the National League Division Series with the Cubs.

Piscotty hit well out of the #2 hole, so why not bump him up one spot to help the lineup shape up better for smoother run production. Piscotty is the type of hitter who can burn you with anything at any given moment.

A single, double, triple or home run. He is versatile and doesn’t get extra hungry at the plate. While his 20 walks in 233 at bats in 2015 won’t scream patience, he has the makings of a kid who could mature wisely at the plate.

Piscotty, over the course of four years in the minors, walked 144 times with only 194 strikeouts in 390 games. He has a wise bat and could mature into an unorthodox leadoff type hitter. Who thought Carpenter was that kind of guy years ago? You never know until you try it.

However, Piscotty hitting #2 could fit this team a little more. He showed pop and sizzle in the 6th spot in the order, and could slowly move up through the order. The idea of Piscotty at leadoff, however, isn’t a mindless one.

He compiled a .359 OBP in his minor league career before jumping to the Majors last season. It makes some sense and deserves some discussion.

Next: Phamtasitc

4. Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham, when healthy, is a lethal talent. A talent who can hit the ball out of the park or collect a couple triples. Pham has speed, confidence and a quick bat.

He also made an impact when he first arrived in July. He put together a unique series against the San Diego Padres, scoring the game winning run on a close play at home plate off a sacrifice fly and also supplying all three RBI in a Sunday win that helped the Cards win the series and flip a losing streak on its head.

He is also the owner of brand new hybrid contacts, which should only help his vision at the plate. If he did the amount of damage in September with half wit contacts, what can he do with great ones?

He also adopted a vegetable heavy diet plan to help with the lack of staying healthy throughout his career, and that can help your muscles in the the legs stay hydrated and strong on a hot summer schedule. Finally healthy, could Pham bring his unique brand of speed to the top and allow Carpenter to move down?

While the allure is potent at first, Pham didn’t fare so well in the leadoff spot and may hit a lot better in the #2 hole. If given the right amount of time up top, Pham may thrive but there are other guys with stronger pedigrees to take that mantle at the start of 2016. If he endures and stays healthy, Pham could get some top towards the top of the order but I don’t see it happening in the leadoff role.

Next: What's the verdict?

What’s the verdict?

So who is the guy, if any, to replace Matt Carpenter in the  leadoff role? If I had to pick one, it would be Holliday.

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For a few simple reasons. Holliday has shown the ability to get on base throughout the majority of his career. He can work a count and doesn’t strike out as much as Carpenter or Wong. He also would give this lineup a brand new look and possibly increase the amount of runs being put on the board.

He also wouldn’t be able to ground into as many of those sharp double plays. Holliday would give the 20 home run pop at the top of the order too, something the Cards have valued over time.

Next: 2016 Zips and Projections

While it’s not conventional, if Matheny and Mozeliak are content with this group of young and older Cards, thinking outside the box may be the right method to giving this strong pitching staff more runs to work with and a bigger cushion for the bullpen late in games.

I’m not sure I can handle another season of close 2-1 and 3-2 games again with an overworked Trevor Rosenthal climbing the hill again and again. Score more runs. Think differently. Adjust to players abilities. Holliday can reach base a ton and give you some pop.