St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals should not spend money just because they have money

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Just because the St. Louis Cardinals have the money, doesn’t mean they should spend it.

As it is becoming the popular theme of the last couple of years in free agency, contracts are generally a poor investment for baseball teams. Historically the long-term free agency deals have not panned out well for teams willing to spend big. The players are good for one to two years, and maybe a third, but generally theres is a drop off. So, maybe the St. Louis Cardinals shouldn’t spend that money?

The one’s that tend to work out the best are those of players that sign a long-term deal close to free agency, like the current contracts of Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina.

Also the players in their arbitration years, such as Trevor Rosenthal and Brandon Moss, are generally solid values. The long-term contracts signed before arbitration, like that of Matt Carpenter, and even Jamie Garcia, are generally solid investments as well (Allen Craig is an exception as I said “generally”). Even looking at what the Cardinals did with Lance Lynn is not a bad investment, but it will be interesting to see how they value him after next season.

Then finally, you have the players making the league minimum, which are players like Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, and Kolten Wong which are just downright bargains. So, when you look at the expensive market in free agency, and compare them to these guys, it doesn’t really add up.

However, we are going to take a look at the value in the guys left on the free agent market and it adds up with a potential signing with the Cardinals.

Next: Values in free agency

Oct 4, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) hits a two run home run during the eighth inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles won 9-4. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Values in free agency

When people go out and think about the word “free agency,” they do not usually think of the term behind the word on which it means/applies towards. Free agency is for filling holes a team cannot fill internally, like Jhonny Peralta, or signing an impact player like Matt Holliday. Out of all the ways to acquire a player, free agency provides the least relative to cost. There are exceptions however.

Matt Holliday for instance has been a tremendous value towards the Cardinals, as has Jhonny Peralta, but those are exceptions. During this years’ Winter Meetings, the Cardinals front office felt like David Price and Jason Heyward were exceptions as well.

Just because the Cardinals fell short of their goal of signing those two great players, does not mean that the team needs to set their sights lower and still spend a ton of money without making a significant improvement.

Do not get me wrong, there are still plenty of good players left in free agency this offseason. To name a few: Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Chris Davis are all good players, however they are all going to be expensive as well, and all of them have likely already played their best baseball.

Next: Are they worth it?

Aug 18, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres left fielder Justin Upton (10) doubles during the sixth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Are they worth it?

The youngest of the group is Upton, he is only 28 years of age, and he would most likely be asking for a contract worth of $120-150 million for five to six years and he most likely to receive an offer.

To whomever signs Upton, I do see a potential risk here, as does Co-Editor Steven McNeil. He might go out and provide two solid years of production, but as he starts to creep into his 30s, he is going to be a below average player.

Even if the Cardinals’ wanted to go and spend big on of these free agents that are left, take a look at the numbers and what it is St. Louis would be paying for. Let’s take a look over the last five seasons, 472 position players have put up 2-WAR season or greater.

Of those, roughly a quarter came from players over the age of 30. Raise the age up to above 32, and the number drops in half. Move up another two years and the number drops in half again. Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes will be 30 at the start of their contracts while Alex Gordon will be 32.

There is a dollar value where I would take Upton, Davis, Cespedes (who has already said that he would be willing to play right field in the past), or Gordon (maybe $80 million for Gordon, $100 million for Davis or Cespedes, and $120 for Upton), but unless the market drops, those players are unlikely to become decent values.

All of those contracts will be paying for the downside of their production. When you look at it this way, it makes sense why this team has not been interested in signing any of them. There’s even more coming up through the system.

Next: Internal Options

Oct 10, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pinch hitter Randal Grichuk (15) is congratulated by right fielder Stephen Piscotty (55) for hitting a solo home run during the fifth inning in game two of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Internal Options

Let’s take a closer look at what the Cardinals have now. The team has virtually every spot on the roster filled with except for right field and first base. At those two positions, we can estimate anywhere near 700 plate appearance and lets take another 100 plate appearances in left field when Holliday has the day off.

The St. Louis Cardinals’ thriftiness could pay off

Just because the St. Louis Cardinals have the money, doesn’t mean they should spend it.

Values in free agency

Are they worth it?

Internal Options

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