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St. Louis Cardinals: Eyeing Leftover Free Agents
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
I had a dream last night that somewhere in the bowels of Busch II, St. Louis Cardinals general manager was hard at work on a huge multi-player trade with the Brewers and/or Reds. Then I woke up.
The reality is that the St. Louis Cardinals may not have the talent it needs to pull off such a deal. We don’t have a Dansby Swanson type we could package with a fringy big leaguer to get Jonathan Lucroy or Joey Votto. Although I argued yesterday here and here that, given what the White Sox gave up to get third baseman Todd Frazier this week, the cost may not be high at all.
But if this offseason has taught me anything, it’s to be a pessimist. At least then I can save myself from the sting of bitter disappointment.
Apparently, the St. Louis Cardinals still have money to spend. I’ll let Yahoo! Sports’ Big League Stew play the optimist here:
If there’s a silver lining though, it’s that this free-agent class is deep and several good options remain. The Cardinals aren’t in a terrible spot by any means. In fact, they’re in a position similar to the Cubs before they splurged on Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward. They still have plenty of the money to spend, and can be creative in how they spread it around. Perhaps they’ll even end up getting more bang for their buck with multiple cost efficient signings.
Yeah, maybe. Maybe if they sign one or more of these five players, I’ll pull out of this long, cold winter of my discontent. Check them out …
Next: Daniel Murphy
Daniel Murphy
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Fairly recent reports have Daniel Murphy shacking up with the Washington Nationals, but even more recent reports show the Nats are near a deal with St. Louis Cardinals nemesis Brandon Phillips. This looks like a lesser-of-two-evils situation. It’s not.
Statistically, Phillips has a nice rebound season with the bat, nearly hitting .300 and driving in 70 runs after hitting .266 with 51 RBI in 2014. According to Baseball Prospectus, his war bubbled up to his more customary 2.6. But he’s 34, and for all the fuss about defensive value, he’s not that great. In fact, Baseball Prospectus data shows that both he and Murphy’s Fielding Runs Above Average were exactly zero. They’re both average defenders.
Murphy is four years younger than Phillips and has performed similarly at the plate while playing his home games in a bigger ballpark. I know what you’re thinking, St. Louis Cardinals fans. Those World Series errors!
Here’s the thing about that. Murphy is a baseball rat. Don’t think for a moment that he hasn’t spent his winter working on defense. He’s going to bounce back with the glove in 2016 while offering more with the bat than Phillips can at this point in his career.
Next: Chris Davis
Chris Davis
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Davis just might regret rejecting the Baltimore Orioles’ $150-million offer a few weeks ago. But that’s kind of par for the course if you’re a Scott Boras client. Despite their most recent move, I don’t think the Orioles have moved on from Davis. The longer the slugging first baseman stays on the market, the higher the likelihood that he’s headed back to Baltimore.
In fact, I think this is what we’ll see. The St. Louis Cardinals will — and may already have — make a low-ball offer to Davis, probably somewhere in the neighborhood of the $150-million deal the Orioles took off the table last week to save face. Boras will parlay the St. Louis Cardinals’ offer into a slightly better deal from Baltimore, which helps the uber agent save face. Davis will be an Oriole for the remaining high-value years of his career.
If Davis ever joins the St. Louis Cardinals, it will be in four or five years as bench filler. Sigh.
Next: Yoenis Cespedes
Yoenis Cespedes
Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
How come we haven’t heard more about the St. Louis Cardinals looking at Yoenis Cespedes? I’d love to have this guy if for no other reason than the excuse it’d give Cardinals Nation to follow the awesome Cespedes Family Barbecue Twitter account (@CespedesBBQ). The name, by the way, derives from that hilarious video Cespedes sent out to MLB teams back when he was defecting.
In typical science-professor-like detail, FanGraphs recently tried to predict Cespedes’ performance going forward. The gist, I guess, was that he’s worth signing. He’s been a 5.0 WARP player or better in three of his last four seasons, according to Baseball Prospectus. And looking back at that FanGraphs piece, the Cuban outfielder will give you a nice balance of offense and defense.
He’s streaky, though. Think of Cespedes as Yasiel Puig lite. Not as much drama, but he’ll still gack an outfield play (including in key games), giving you the self-satisfying feeling of assuring yourself that you could’ve made that play in your sleep. Yeah, right.
Next: Alex Gordon
Alex Gordon
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
According to SB Nation, the Kansas City Royals are lowballing their one-time franchise face, offering Alex Gordon anywhere from $5 to $7 million less than what the market seems to be dictating. (That’s such a Kansas City Royals move.) I’m still LOLing the Cubs for their Ben Zobrist deal, which to be what the market is dictating for a guy like Gordon.
I’ll admit I’m a bit of a fanboy, though. Gordon has earned his reputation as a premium defender in left field, which is kind of a problem for the St. Louis Cardinals with Matt Holliday entrenched there. So the St. Louis Cardinals may not be in on him. We already know the Angels aren’t:
#Angels owner Arte Moreno said he's "probably out" on the Gordon/Cespedes/Upton group
— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 17, 2015
But the St. Louis Cardinals should be. The former overall number-one pick will be 32 when he starts spring training camp, and Gordon is coming of a season in which he was nagged all years by a groin injury. Translation? He won’t command the huge dollars former St. Louis Cardinals rightfielder and current St. Louis Cardinals judas Jason Heyward did.
Still, Gordon helped lift his team to a World Series title and posted a 2.6 WARP for the season. Not bad. I think 2016 will be better. Here’s hoping it’s with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Next: Justin Upton
Justin Upton
Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
I feel as if Justin Upton is constantly being maligned by fans and the media for not living up to this impossible player everyone expected him to be after the Arizona Diamondbacks took him first overall back in 2005. Then former Dbacks GM Kevin Towers labelled Upton a losing player shortly after shipping the outfielder off to the Atlanta Braves in 2013 for a few spare parts.
I’ve never seen anyone punished more for hitting 31 dingers in a season than Upton. Because when he did that in 2012, everyone seemed to say, “Oh, okay. Now he’s reeeeaaaallly going to take off.” But he didn’t, and that’s when the grousing began. Look. Upton hit in a lineup that included both Stephen Drew AND Lyle Overbay. Paul Goldschmidt wasn’t the stud he is now, either. All opposing pitchers had to do was pitch around Upton, and everything would be fine.
Next: National League Competition Revisited
Pitchers did the same thing after he went to Atlanta and San Diego. Upton was the only nice and shiny new offensive acquisition for the Padres who lived up to his billing. Wil Myers? Uh uh. Matt Kemp? Nope. Derek Norris? Wait, who?
I wouldn’t mind seeing the St. Louis Cardinals pony up some cash for Upton, then give the guy a nice, stable winning environment where he doesn’t feel like he has to look over his shoulder every day. Because even under those stressful circumstances, he’s been a 4.0+ WARP player. I’m fine with that (while secretly hoping he does better. Shhhh. Don’t tell anyone.)