Cardinals’ Rumors: Cleveland Indians trade partners again?

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Aug 26, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez (from left), starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28), starting pitcher Josh Tomlin (43) and starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) watch in the rain in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

As the St. Louis Cardinals seem to be unimpressed with the free agent market. Could they look to acquire an Indians pitcher?

The Indians have a a couple really nice young and controllable pitchers, and rumor is they are available and the St. Louis Cardinals could be interested according to MLB Trade Rumors. We all know how tough trades are and how difficult it must be for GM John Mozeliak to even think of trading with Cleveland again, especially after the last couple of deals.

However, it seems as if there is a bit of a relationship built there between the two teams, and with a new GM running things over there, a trade could be more in the Cardinals’ favor than before.

I normally am against trading prospects, but there are a few guys that I would be willing to give up. The Indians may look for a younger more controllable starter in return, as well as some high potential hitting. So, maybe the Cardinals could give them Luke Weaver, Charlie Tilson, and flame thrower Sam Tuivailala.

That may not be enough to get one of these stud pitchers from the Indians, but I think that is a good starter, and given how much the Cardinals have given the Indians in the last two deals, I think that’s a good “make up” deal.

All of this would definitely hinge on which pitcher the Cardinals would be after. There are three different options for the Cardinals, so let’s take a look at all three and make a case for which pitcher has the best chance to be traded and which one would intrigue the Cardinals the most.

Next: Fantastic strikeout machine

Sep 14, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco (59) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Option #1 Carlos Carrasco

This is an intriguing option. Carrasco’s overall career numbers aren’t the best, but his 3.45 FIP shows that he has some talent. Carrasco has been back and forth from the Indians to the minor league affiliates since 2009 and has had some good seasons but has been kind of inconsistent over the majority of his career.

Many thought that Carrasco was going to take off this year. Last year Carrasco was relegated to the bullpen for most of the season after having four straight starts where he gave up four earned runs or more to start the season.

Carrasco returned to the rotation on August 10th and made ten starts to finish the season, with an ERA of 1.30 and a sparkling 1.73 FIP, while averaging a really good 10.13 K/9 and 1.43 BB/9. This was a really good comeback for Carrasco and it secured his spot in the rotation for 2015.

However, Carrasco had a little bit of bad luck in 2015, he finished 14-12 with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 2.84 which suggests that his ERA should have been lower, but Carrasco played with a bad Indians team last year.

As a fantasy owner of Carrasco, I knew he had a lot of bad games this year, but when you look at the bad games he had, almost all of them have drastic differences between his FIP and ERA, which means that Carrasco’s defense certainly did not help him this year. Carrasco, did however take care of business on his own a lot, as he finished the year with a ridiculous 10.58 K/9.

Interestingly enough, an article by Fangraphs’ August Fagerstrom the Indians discussed a deal with the San Francisco Giants that included Joe Panik and Brandon Belt. So, if the Cardinals and Indians are to do a deal, maybe someone like a Tommy Pham or Matt Adams could be of interest to the Indians, with a throw in of a high contact prospect like a Darren Seferina. Fagerstrom also mentioned that according to fWAR projections, Carrasco is a top 10 pitcher in this league. With that said, Carrasco would be a fantastic addition.

Can you imagine a “future” rotation with Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Carlos Carrasco, Michael Wacha, and Alexander Reyes? Wow that would be electric. Make it happen Mo! Heck, with Aledmys Diaz and Jedd Gyorko in hand, I may even consider letting go of Kolten Wong.

Sep 28, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28) throws a pitch during the third inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Option #2 Corey Kluber

Who wouldn’t want to have the former Cy Young Award winner on their staff? Kluber showed his worth last season when proceeded to mow Cardinals’ hitters down, striking out 18 and allowing just one hit over eight innings against the Cardinals’ anemic offense.

Aside from that start, Kluber for all intents and purposes had a down year in 2015 a year after winning the Cy Young in 2014. Kluber finished with a record of 9-16 with an ERA of 3.49 and 2.97 FIP, which is pretty good, but not as good as his 18-9, 2.44 ERA and 2.35 FIP that got him the Cy Young in 2014. That year, Kluber was worth a ridiculous 7.3 fWAR.

Kluber was still really good in 2015, as he was still worth 5.5 fWAR. So, what you’re getting in Kluber is an established ace. He is not much older than Carrasco, but will turn 30 in April. Not much of a concern for Kluber, who was a little bit of a late bloomer, not getting his break as a full-time starter in the big leagues until 2013.

Kluber would likely be even better with a better defense behind him. So, to acquire Kluber would be like acquiring an ace in his prime and he would fit in well in this rotation, especially given he is likely under team control until 2021. Kluber, would probably be the most expensive get of the three, but he would probably be the most “sure” bet.

Next: The Prospect

Oct 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Danny Salazar (31) delivers in the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Option #3 Danny Salazar

Salazar is actually the most intriguing of the three, and I would think the least likely to be traded. This is due to the fact that Salazar is the youngest at age 26 (in 24 days), and thus has the least experience. In 60 starts, Salazar is 22-21, with a 3.66 ERA and 3.53 FIP, but what points to Salazar getting better is his career K/9 of 9.86 and decreasing walk rate.

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Salazar had been a bit of a fly ball pitcher until this past year when he posted a 43.9% ground ball rate. This past year was also his best year, as he finished the season with 3.0 fWAR.

Interestingly, Salazar changed his repertoire up a bit this year, as according to Fangraphs he stopped relying on his fastball a lot this year as his percentage went down to 51.3% after being in the high 60s the past two years.

This was due to Salazar utilizing his two seam fastball almost three times as much as had the previous year. This helped his change up value jump up to 13.6 runs above average, after being worth 2.4 runs above average the year before. So, it shows that Salazar is evolving and changing his repertoire, which also included a curveball for the first time.

All of this considered makes Salazar a good option to consider for the Cardinals, but I would expect the Indians would probably rather keep him and move one or both of the other two.

Next: Evaluating the leftover free agents

Prognosis

The Indians are an interesting team to keep an eye on for sure, as I could see the Cardinals being interested in all three of these guys, depending on what the price is. With Mozeliak’s comments on the Bernie Miklasz show earlier today, I don’t know that Mozeliak will be willing to pay the high price these three would likely require, but you never know.

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