St. Louis Cardinals: What the Big FA Signings Mean

Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Baseball Winter Meetings won’t have quite as much juice in the wake of several big free agent pitcher signings. None involved the St. Louis Cardinals but impact the team nonetheless.

They’re gone. They’re all gone. In the weeks leading up to the Baseball Winter Meetings, which run through next Thursday, the free agent pitching market has mostly dried up. The St. Louis Cardinals have been dormant.

And now, the focus turns to free agent hitters.

All the big fish are available. Former St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Jason Hayward could conceivably rejoin his old mates as a significantly richer man. The longer former New York Mets savior Yoenis Cespedes stays on the market, the more everyone forgets what a disaster his postseason was. The Mets, meanwhile, seem intent on pursuing creaky utility man Ben Zobrist (age 34 but with the declining athleticism of a 39 year old) thanks to his great postseason with the Kansas City Royals.

First baseman Chris Davis, once a rumored target of the St. Louis Cardinals, has generated buzz as his old club, the Baltimore Orioles, have seemingly moved on. The O’s traded for former Seattle Mariners first baseman Mark Trumbo last week, presumably replacing Davis in the batting order.

Then there’s Justin Upton. Remember him? He’s been a largely forgotten man so far, perhaps for good reason. He hasn’t topped his career-high 31 homers in 2011, after which his GM in Arizona labelled him a losing player and shipped him off to Atlanta. ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield lists five teams he thinks the one-time first overall draft pick might go. The St. Louis Cardinals aren’t on that list.

Here’s the thing, though. The 2015 St. Louis Cardinals proved the old saw that good pitching beats good hitting. The pressure to add a very good to great starting pitcher remain. Meanwhile, it’s worth looking at how the free agent pitchers who’ve signed might impact the 2016 St. Louis Cardinals.

Zack Greinke to the Arizona Diamondbacks

Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

This has easily been the bombshell so far. I certainly didn’t see it coming. Rumors leading up to Zack Greinke‘s 6-year, $206 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks had the media-shy right-hander going to the San Francisco Giants or the Los Angeles Dodgers. The sentiment was he wanted to go back to L.A., but for more money.

Well, he got his money alright, from a surprise team that is, unfortunately, still in the National League. Greinke is already 32 years old, yet Arizona gave him six years, albeit with no opt out.

It’s really hard to say what this deal will mean to the St. Louis Cardinals. They get four games against the Snakes in Phoenix, where they’ll likely face Greinke, and another three against them at home. But what really matters is if everything clicks and the Diamondbacks reach the postseason. The Diamondbacks will pitch Greinke on short rest with a playoff series on the line. Let’s hope the St. Louis Cardinals will be able to handle him in those circumstances.

John Lackey to the Chicago Cubs

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It seems as if baseball insiders and pundits are lauding the John Lackey signing as a savvy, depth-boosting move by the Chicago Cubs. The sentiment is based on the solid year he had for the St. Louis Cardinals last year. There’s no guarantee the old man will come anywhere near that again.

The 37-year-old right-hander tossed 218 innings in 2015, his highest total since 2007. He also posted a 2.77 ERA. Lackey was very good, no question. But he reminds me of former big league pitcher Kevin Millwood. Millwood didn’t have the career Lackey has had, but in 2005 the Millwood enjoyed a blip in his 16-year career when he led the American League with a 2.86 ERA. He turned that into a multi-year deal with the Texas Rangers after the season.

Guess what? The Rangers deal sucked. Millwood went right back to being the so-so pitcher he was. Lackey, I think, is in Millwood territory.

Jeff Samardzija to the San Francisco Giants

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Un. Be. Lievable. No one benefited more from the panicky, sweaty aftermath of the Greinke signing than Jeff Samardzija. The Shark got five years for $90 million from the jittery San Francisco Giants, who figured they were neck-and-neck with the Dodgers for Greinke.

Maybe the Giants figured the last of the upper-tier free agent pitchers, Johnny Cueto, is bound to be signed by the Dodgers. Maybe the Giants didn’t want to go through all that angst again.

The bottom line is that it’s really hard to call Samardzija an upper-tier pitcher. He’s had one good season as a starter. One. Last year with the Chicago White Sox was an epic fail. He put up a 4.96 ERA in 214 innings on the South Side. After two straight seasons of 200+ strikeouts, he managed just 163 in 2015.

So the Giants are investing in his youth, right? Wrong. He’s 30. Remember the whole “star wide receiver at Notre Dame” thing? That stretched out his development in the minor leagues.

Then again, these are the San Francisco Giants we’re talking about. If they can turn Aubrey Huff into a World Series hero, they can certainly turn Samardzija back into his 2014 self. And if that happens, a one-two punch of Madison Bumgarner and Samardzija could be a problem for the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs.

Jordan Zimmermann to the Detroit Tigers

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In the deal that started it all, the Detroit Tigers finalized a 5-year, $110-million pact with Jordan Zimmermann on November 30. That contract seems cute now, doesn’t it?

This deal has next to no impact on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Tigers aren’t on the 2016 schedule, and any influence this deal had on the free agent pitcher market has been eclipsed by the previously listed deals. It may become a reference point should the St. Louis Cardinals try for Leake, Wei-Yin Chen or Yovani Gallardo. Which they probably are, we just don’t know it yet.

Perhaps this deal set the tone for the St. Louis Cardinals’ off-season strategy, prompting GM John Mozeliak to make one bit play for David Price and move to the trade market as a Plan B. Or, rely on arms on the farm as a Plan B.

Next: 5 Possible Trade Partners

Whatever the case may be, we’ll almost certainly know more in the coming days.