St. Louis Cardinals Hot Stove: 4 Under-the-Radar FA, Trade Targets

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Every glance at the St. Louis Cardinals’ offensive numbers from 2015 is a reminder that statistics don’t tell the whole story. On paper, that team should have limped to a third-place finish in the National League Central, out of postseason contention by the end of August.

The 2015 St. Louis Cardinals ranked 8th in the National League with a .716 OPS and 9th with a .394 slugging percentage. When runners did get on, they weren’t great at putting themselves into position to score. According to Baseball Prospectus, the team ranked 23rd in baseball with -6.1 base running runs, a stat showing runs generated by savvy base running — whether tagging from third on a fly ball, stealing a bag or going from first to third on a single.

Here’s where things get kind of ugly for the St. Louis Cardinals. Its best baserunner in 2015 was Jason Hayward, he of the soon-to-receive $200+ million contract from some other deep-pocketed team.

At least the St. Louis Cardinals will have its leading run producer back. According to the number crunchers at ESPN, third baseman Matt Carpenter was 15th in the Majors with 6.75 runs produced per 27 outs. There’s only one free agent who did better. Big bopper Chris Davis, the first baseman whose potential value to his next team has Cardinals Nation tearing itself apart.

The truth is, the St. Louis Cardinals batting order needs more than just a thumper. It needs players who are good at scoring runs by whatever means necessary. Here are 4 rumored and confirmed to be available who could work:

Marcell Ozuna, CF

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The Marlins have given up on their one-time center fielder of the future, according to multiple reports. Like fellow future franchise player Christian Yelich, Marcel Ozuna had a terrible first half in Miami last year. But instead of sticking with him, as it did with Yelich, the organization demoted Ozuna to triple-A and left him there for a while in July.

By the way, Ozuna wasn’t that terrible. He hit .249 in the first half. The problem was his meager .638 OPS. Regardless, here we are with a poisoned relationship that doesn’t look as if it will get any better. Momentum toward a trade is already well under way. Classic Marlins.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, Marcell Ozuna could be the 2016 version of last year’s offseason acquisition Jason Heyward, albeit for a cheaper price. Like Heyward, Ozuna failed to meet the lofty expectations of the organization that developed him. And like Heyward, Ozuna will soon be dealt at 25 years old, has a cannon for an arm and has already shown he can hit for power against lefthanded and righthanded pitching. Remember, Ozuna slugged 23 dingers and was a 2.6-WAR player in 2014.

Does one bad year a career make? I think not.

Next: Asdrubal Cabrera, INF

Asdrubal Cabrera, INF

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The St. Louis Cardinals already have one shortstop who’s a product of the Cleveland Indians’ excellent Latin American operations. Trouble is, the 33-year-old Jhonny Peralta is past his prime. Asdrubal Cabrera, however, is 30 and just might have some life offensively and defensively.

Cabrera hit 15 homers and drove in 58 last year, most of them coming in the Tampa Bay Rays’ vacuous Tropicana Field. I’m not saying Cabrera would necessarily be a replacement for Peralta. I can see a platoon situation that could help boost both players’ plate production in 2016. Cabrera also has some experience at second base as recently as 2014, when the Tribe traded at the deadline to the Washington Nationals.

Four teams, including the Rays and San Diego Padres, are already in on Cabrera. The appeal is not just his potential offensive production. It’s also is his low cost relative to the only other decent free agent shortstop, Ian Desmond. Given the sound infrastructure Cabrera would be joining at Busch Stadium, the veteran infielder would be in the best position to succeed with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Next: Mark Trumbo, 1B

Ender Inciarte, CF

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The St. Louis Cardinals have a minor league system stocked full of good starting pitching but no hitters on the rise to possibly help out the big league team in 2016. The Arizona Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have a surplus of young big league hitting talent and are on the lookout for young, controllable pitching. See where I’m going here?

I zeroed in on Ender Inciarte primarily because he’s a contact hitter who’s also one of the best base runners in the game. Last year, his 6.5 baserunning runs was third in all of baseball, behind teammate A.J. Pollock‘s 7.9 and the Cincinnati Reds’ Billy Hamilton‘s 10.9. Too bad Hamilton can’t hit the broad side of a barn, right?

Arizona scored the second-most runs in the National League last year, while its pitching staff undid much of that by posting one of the league’s highest ERAs. So Arizona wouldn’t mind trading one of their run scorers to the St. Louis Cardinals for pitching help. And the St. Louis Cardinals minor league pitching depth wouldn’t be hurt too much by losing a starter or two.

Particularly if what the St. Louis Cardinals get back helps them get to the promised land again.