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St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk vs. Stephen Piscotty
St. Louis Cardinals pinch hitter Randal Grichuk is congratulated by right fielder Stephen Piscotty for hitting a solo home run during the fifth inning in game two of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty have a lot in common. Both are 24; both put up impressive campaigns in limited time in 2015; and both keep being mentioned as potential trade chips. Because moving one of them in a trade may be the best way for the St. Louis Cardinals to maximize their value, I want to explore which young outfielder is better and has the better chance of succeeding in the future.
Before we begin, I want to make it clear that both are at least solid players and either or both could be more than that. I am by no means advocating trading either of them at this point, nor am I trying to say that one is clearly and inherently a better player than the other; I’m just trying to look at what we do know and what that likely means going forward. Now into the analysis.
Next: Stephen Piscotty
October 13, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Stephen Piscotty (55) hits a two run home run in the first inning against Chicago Cubs in game four of the NLDS at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Stephen Piscotty
Pros: Long heralded as one of the Cardinals’ top position player prospects, Piscotty has a solid bat, great on-base skills, and above average right field defense thanks to a fantastic arm. He can handle either corner outfield spot or first base, giving St. Louis some much needed defensive versatility. Additionally, he looks to be developing power, as he hit 18 home runs between Memphis and St. Louis this past season, including 7 at the big league level.
Cons: Piscotty’s weaknesses are as diverse as his strengths. Although it’s true that he can play first, he probably shouldn’t and that limits his versatility. His defense is above average only because of his arm, and his range is pretty bad. His foot speed isn’t anything special, and although it looked alright this season, Piscotty doesn’t have a long history of hitting lots of home runs. It’s definitely easy to see the young right fielder’s upside, but it also isn’t too hard to see him as 2-3 WAR role player if he doesn’t develop as well as most think he will.
Comps: If Piscotty can show consistent power, you’re probably looking at a light version of Matt Holliday. He’ll never be as good, but he’ll be good. If he never does get that power surge, a better comp may be a lesser iteration of Christian Yelich without the speed. Either way, Piscotty should provide some solid value with the bat for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Next: Randal Grichuk
Jun 2, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Randal Grichuk (15) hits a double off of Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Tyler Cravy (not pictured) during the second inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Randal Grichuk
Pros: Raw power from the right side. Really, we don’t even need to go any farther, because that’s Grichuk’s big deal. The man can hit some home runs. Since I need more than three sentences, he’s also solid defensively and can play all three outfield spots well. He’s also a good base runner, although he doesn’t use his raw foot speed as well as he might. But really, the reason we all love him is that he absolutely hammers the ball when he makes contact.
Cons: Strikeouts and walks. He does one of those things way too much, and the other way too little (I’ll let you figure out which is which). Simply put, Grichuk just doesn’t have any patience. The power hitter with high strikeout numbers is pretty normal, but you usually get a third trait: a lot of walks. Unfortunately for the St. Louis Cardinals, Grichuk seems to have left that one out. He’s shown signs of improving, but he finished 2015 with a 6.3 BB% and a 31.4 K% (fifth worst in baseball).
Comps: Trying to find a comp for Randal Grichuk is hard, because players that strike out 30% of the time and walk 5% of the time simply don’t succeed. In history, the list of players with an ISO over .200, and BB% under 8%, and a K% over 30% is short: Bo Jackson and Juan Francisco. Both have career BB% above Randal Grichuk’s best figure in the majors. The comps are as baffling as Grichuk himself, but if you want upside to dream about, dream Bo Jackson without the football. If you want a downside, think Juan Francisco with better defense.
Next: Who do we keep?
Sep 24, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Stephen Piscotty (55) is congratulated by Randal Grichuk as he crosses home plate after hitting a solo home run during the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports
Who do we keep?
Now back to the real question: who do we keep? It’s hard to see Grichuk as a really phenomenal player, and it’s really easy to see him as a bust, but with every passing day he keeps proving that he can do the impossible.
Maybe he’s just a new kind of player we’ve never seen before: someone who hits the ball so hard that he’s able to be valuable even without a high walk rate. I’ve been crying wolf on Grichuk for two years, and he keeps proving me wrong. It gets harder and harder to write his production off as a fluke.
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On the other hand, I don’t see Stephen Piscotty busting. He may not be as a superstar, but he should be more than good enough to hang on to a starting position for quite a few years. That said, if his power isn’t real, he could be closer to good than great, and Grichuk may exceed him in production.
Next: Wisdom and Wilson Left Off 40-Man
If it were up to me, I’d take the safe route and stick with Piscotty. I think that Grichuk’s trade value right now is as high as it may ever be, and I think the potential for him to bust is simply too great to take him over Piscotty. It’s close though, and it would be a tough choice to make if I were steering the St. Louis Cardinals through this off season. What would you do?