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St. Louis Cardinals Bench Help: Five Candidates
If 2015 showed us anything, it’s that depth is crucial for the St. Louis Cardinals. Otherwise, the club would have never made it to the postseason.
Then again, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan twice tried to calculate team depth heading into the 2015 season, and the results were pretty suprising both times. You’d assume the deepest teams would be the winningest ones. But then you’d be wrong.
Last January, Sullivan calculated the number of 1.0 WAR position players per team by using FanGraphs’
STEAMER600, which project every player out at 600 at bats so everyone is on a level playing field. The assumption going in was that teams with the most 1.0 WAR players would be in the best position to win. Things go wrong over 162 games. When starters go down, it benefits teams to put capable players in there as replacements.
Cardinals fell into the middle of the pack with the eventual World Champion Kansas City Royals, while the playoff-bound New York Mets, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers all were toward the bottom of the graph. Sullivan admitted the calculations weren’t perfect. Plenty of free agent depth was still available, and STEAMER projections couldn’t be made on imports like Jung-Ho Kang.
So, a couple of months later, Sullivan did it again, factoring updated depth charts after a few free agency signings as well as other stats in addition to the STEAMER projections. He also included pitching depth, which pushed the St. Louis Cardinals toward the top of the list. And yet, the Rangers, Royals, Astros and Toronto Blue Jays were all among the shallowest teams heading into the season.
The takeaway here isn’t that depth doesn’t matter. It’s that quality depth is hard to measure. Even though he was one of the most touted prospects in the game, Carlos Correa surprised a lot of people with his season. Kang was a godsend for Pittsburgh. Who knew Kendrys Morales would be the run-producing beast he was in Kansas City? Or that the Blue Jays would get as much as they did from starter Marco Estrada?
Having depth is better than not having it, Sullivan’s graphs be darned (this is a family Web site). So let’s play bench bargain bingo. Here are five players I’d love to see the St. Louis Cardinals go get so the team is ready whenever the inevitable unknowns occur.
Wilin Rosario, C/1B
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
To the surprise of many inside and outside the organization, the Colorado Rockies jettisoned their one-time catcher of the future yesterday, giving up on his attempts to play first base. Actually, he played neither very well. Never really has. Rosario’s bat has always been his calling card, from the moment the Rockies signed him out of the Dominican Republic.
His bat, however, is another story. In 2012 and 2013, Rosario was a 2+ WAR player despite his defensive liabilities because he could hit the ball out of the yard and drive in runs. Then, perhaps in an effort to curb his strikeouts, Rosario saw barely 3 pitches per at bat and had his worst offensive season in the bigs. Before 2015, that is. By then Colorado has pretty much had enough, I guess, and relegated him to a backup role at first. His WAR for the season? -0.9.
Rockies GM said DFAing Rosario was about giving him the change of scenery he needs. And you wonder what kind of lift he’d get from being around Yadier Molina all year. I say the St. Louis Cardinals should give him a shot.
Darwin Barney, INF
Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Anyone who’s watched a Major League playoff game ever understands how important solid defense is. One flub, and it’s over. Right, Bill Buckner? Daniel Murphy? Remember that shallow fly ball that handcuffed Matt Holliday in game one at Dodger Stadium a few years ago?
Enter 30-year-old free agent Darwin Barney, who has been floating around in the big league/triple-A neverland for the last year or so after anchoring the Chicago Cubs infield for five seasons. The Blue Jays DFA’d him this time. He was one of those low-ceiling college prospects who made it to the big leagues relatively quickly, and the St. Louis Cardinals sure could have used him last year as a late-inning replacement at any of the infield positions. Remember, this guy won a Gold Glove in 2012.
Hak-Ju Lee, INF
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Lee is one of those stories of a can’t-miss prospect who missed. And all because of a bobbled play at second in triple-A. Manning shortstop for the triple-A Durham Bulls in 2013, Lee tried to gather a wide throw at second on a double-play attempt. That put him right in harm’s way, and while bobbling the ball Lee didn’t hop out of the way of the sliding baserunner. His knee was completely torn up, robbing him of his speed for good.
Lee has never been the same offensive player. Always a slap hitter. Lee’s speed helped him turn groundouts into infield hits and be a serious stolen base threat. He was none of that when he returned in 2014. The 24-year-old Korean is still solid defensively, though. And he’s young enough to have figured out how to adjust his game and still be a decent big leaguer.
L.J. Hoes, OF
Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
In addition to a name that gives headline writers like myself soooo much to work with, Hoes also has serious potential. He’s played in the outfield exclusively since 2012, but the Baltimore Orioles drafted and developed him as an infielder.
Hoes, who the Houston Astros DFA’d on Friday, is still just 25. And in 370 at-bats at triple-A Fresno last year, he hit .295 and stole 25 bags. Really, he’s just a victim of circumstance in Houston. With the emergence of George Springer and the addition of Carlos Gomez at the trade deadline last year, the Astros had no place to put Hoes. Given the chance, he can more than just contribute at the big league level.
A.J. Griffin, RHP
Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland DFA’d Griffin on Friday, and the righthander took it in stride. The easy-going, guitar-strumming California native was once a bulwark of the A’s rotation. He logged 282 1/3 innings for the A’s in 2012 and 2013, posting a 3.60 ERA in 47 starts. Then, he had Tommy John surgery, and his recovery included some shoulder issues that kept him out of both 2014 and 2015.
Griffin spoke to A’s beat writer Susan Slusser after the announcement, and he told her he’s healthy and learned form his experience coming back from surgery. He’ll still be just 28 on Opening Day. Should he be able regain feel for this curveball and use that 6-feet-5 frame of his, he could be the ground-ball machine he once was.
Griffin could be one of those sneaky good offseason signings that has every other GM in baseball swearing under their breath.