Pen on Paper: Mapping the 2016 Cardinals Bullpen

Swingmen

Tim Cooney

is one of three viable middle relief options from within the organzation. Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a lot of chatter online about bringing back Carlos Villanueva for another season. After starting the year in Memphis, the 31-year-old Dominican righthander struck out 55 in 61 innings of relief for the Cardinals. He also pitched two innings of shutout relief in the playoffs. At this point in his career, Villanueva is pretty much a fastball/slider guy. He’ll use a changeup against lefthanders, but mixes his rising four-seamer and slider, both in the upper 80s, most of the time. Nothing spectacular. Meanwhile, this role is ripe for a few farmhands:

• Marco Gonzales. Look, I think last year was a reality check for the 2013 first-round pick. He made 18 starts in the Pacific Coast League last year, and hitters there batted .311 off him. Gonzales is no world beater. He has a plus changeup and great command, which is enough to get through a batting order once or twice. But for a third time? It helps to have swing-and-miss stuff. Sure, you can argue Greg Maddux did just fine without classic out pitches, but that dude is an anomaly.
• Tim Cooney. We saw the 2012 third-rounder for six starts in 2015, and he acquitted himself pretty well. If not for a horrible start against San Diego on April 30, his stats would have been much better. But, like Gonzales, the lefty is a finesse guy who gets outs primarily with his sinking changeup. His four-seamer sits right around 90.
• Zach Petrick. Just go back and read what I wrote about Gonzales and Cooney. Like them, Petrick has good command of the strike zone and gets outs with a two-seamer that has good sink to it.

The Middle Men 

Here’s hoping

Kevin Siegrist

is getting lots of spa treatments this winter. He’s earned it. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Matheny rode like Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist like rented mules this season. Siegrest led the bigs with 81 appearances and finally wore out in the postseason. Maness, meanwhile, had the fourth-most number of appearances and saw his ERA jump by nearly two whole runs. Let’s take a brief look at how the last few Major League appearance leaders fared the season after:

• Cleveland’s Bryan Shaw led the Majors with 80 games in 2014. He showed no ill effects last year, when he appeared in 74 games and posted a solid 2.95 ERA.
• Tampa Bay’s Joel Peralta was the leader in 2013, again with 80. The following season his ERA jumped by a run and opposing hitters batted about 50 points better. A neck sprain limited him to 29 innings for the Dodgers this past year. His ERA was over four again.
• Matt Belisle, Shawn Camp and Randy Choate each had a league leading 80 appearances in 2012. We won’t count Choate since he faced one batter in many of those outings. Belisle followed his 80-game season, during which he had a 3.71 ERA, with two so-so seasons with 4+ ERAs in Colorado. He was on track for a resurgence in St. Louis this year until elbow inflamation ended his season in June. Poor Camp. His workload with the Cubs essentially ruined him, and he hasn’t been a big league regular since.

The takeaway? Pitchers are like snowflakes. They’re all different. Both Siegrist and Maness could come back and be just fine in 2016. Better than fine, in fact. But in the meantime, I’m biting my nails. And hoping guys like Tyler Lyons and Mitch Harris build off solid 2015 campaigns and become as reliable as Siegrist and Maness.

The Setup Man

A rare shot of

Jordan Walden

pitching in a real game for the Cardinals. Credit: Billy Hurst-USA TODAY Sports

I don’t know if Jordan Walden is ever coming back. You remember Jordan Walden, don’t you? Back in August manager Mike Matheny said the righthander took “one step forward, two steps back” in his rehab and he was done for the season. A biceps strain put him on the DL April 29 and he never pitched again. Now what? Rest, I guess. In a press conference after the Cards were bounced from the postseason, Mozeliak said Walden will be spending his offseason simply resting his arm back home in Texas. Great. If it works, the Cardinals pen gets exponentially better with a guy who’s essentially a closer serving as the bridge to the closer. If not, how about Sam Tuivailala? The average velocity on his four-seamer is just above 97, and he has a power curveball. Both generate whiffs and ground balls.

Closer

Just one little tweak in that elbow, and poof!

Trevor Rosenthal

‘s trade value is all gone. Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Closers make me nervous, you guys. They are volatile assets. One day, they’re throwing in the upper 90s and piling up saves, the next they’re losing the strike zone and blowing enough saves to earn a demotion to double-A. I’m looking at you Steve Cishek. The velocity of Trevor Rosenthal’s signature pitch, his blazing four-seamer, hasn’t dropped off in the three years he’s been a full-time big leaguer. Nothing suggests it will next year, either. But Rosenthal is human. And he has an agent who likes to chirp to the media about his clients. And closers tend to be overvalued by teams that feel they need one. Look at what the Philadelphia Phillies paid Jonathan Papelbon a few years ago. Look at what the Padres gave up for Craig Kimbrel. The Cardinals could get a great return for Rosenthal, then move Walden, Siegrist or even Reyes into the closer role. Let the angry comments begin, but this would definitely be a sell high situation.