NLDS Preview: Cubs vs. Cardinals Part Two

Oct 6, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher John Lackey (41) pitches during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game three of the 2014 NLDS baseball playoff game at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

I am going to do this in order of how the rotations will play out, not in order of ace to fourth starter.

Starter #1

Cardinals: John Lackey – Oh, the grizzly veteran get’s game one. For some reason, this feels like having Chris Carpenter on the mound in 2011. Lackey, like I previewed on Wednesday, is a veteran in the postseason with a 3.08 ERA in 18 career postseason starts. Lackey, also has been dominant on the mound against the Cubs this season, with an ERA of 1.25 in three starts.

Cubs: Jon Lester – Another battle tested playoff veteran, Lester is no doubt ready for today’s matchup. For some reason, I am not worried about Lester, I really think the Cardinals beat him here. Lester, is significantly more beatable this season than he ever was in Boston (except for 2012) with an ERA+ of 116 this season.

This, compared to seasons with ERA+ of 158 and 159 the past two seasons. In five starts against the Cardinals, the Cardinals have only managed nine runs off of the veteran lefty, for a 2.59 ERA. I know that’s not good for the Cardinals, but I have a feeling that things will be different today.

Advantage: None. These two former teammates are so evenly matched here, that I can’t quite determine an advantage here. It is a wash. Lester’s ERA of 3.34 is pretty good, even though it is higher than Lackey’s 2.77, he makes up with a FIP of 2.92 – which is lower than Lackey’s 3.57.

Taking out last year’s flukey Wild Card game against KC, Lester sports a 2.45 ERA in the postseason which is pretty dang good. Lackey on the other hand sports a 3.08 ERA in the postseason and has six more career postseason starts than Lester. So, really on all counts it is a wash. Game one is going to be really good, don’t forget your fried chicken. 

Sep 26, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher

(54) throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports

Starter #2

Cardinals: Jaime Garcia, is a really good pitcher. He had a really good season, despite the injuries. He finished the year with a 2.45 ERA and a home ERA of 1.70, this is definitely why he gets game two. I am really glad that he is starting game two, as it shows that John Mozeliak and Mike Matheny are going for jugular in game two. It also shows the team’s respect of Jake Arietta and knowledge of Jaime’s 3.45 road ERA. Oddly enough, Jaime did not pitch a single game against the Cubs with his two DL trips keeping him out of the Cardinals’ and Cubs’ regular season match-ups. 

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Cubs: Kyle Hendricks – Kyle Hendricks has had a really good year. He sports a slightly high ERA of 3.95, but like his counterpart Lester, his FIP is much lower at 3.36. Hendricks is your classic ground ball pitcher who will probably lull you to sleep with his 89 MPH fastball, but get you to run it into the ground. For more on Hendricks, check out Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron’s post on why he’s the Cubs’ #3 starter.

Advantage: Cardinals. When I first started this post, I assumed Lance Lynn was getting game two, now that Jaime and his 1.70 home ERA are getting the start. The Cubs, do own a .238 batting average against left handed pitchers this season and lower numbers across the board, though it’s not much lower than their numbers against right handers in a much smaller sample size. I am not sure, whether or not this is due to the much smaller sample size. We shall see on Saturday.

Oct 7, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher

(49) throws against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card playoff baseball game at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Starter #3

Cardinals: Michael Wacha – We all know about Wacha’s struggles in the second half. Wacha has seen a rise in walks, home runs, and struck out less and less as the second half went on. I am not an expert and I tell you that all of the time, but to me Wacha looks tired. He only threw a total of 107 innings last season and this season Wacha is already over 181 innings pitched. If the Cards advance further into the postseason that number will climb higher and higher and will wind up likely being a concern for the Cardinals going into 2016. 

Call to the Pen

Cubs: Jake Arrieta – Look, Arrieta is really really good, but so is Clayton Kershaw and we all know his luck against the Cardinals. Arrieta finished the season 22-6 with a sparkling ERA 1.77, and because he plays for the “lovable losers Cubs” he will win the NL Cy Young over the Dodgers’ Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. Arrieta was worth a dominant 7.3 fWAR this year via Fangraphs, which is just nuts. Against the Cardinals this season, Arrieta went 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts, striking out 25 and giving up only eight total runs (seven earned) in the 26 innings pitched.

Advantage: Cubs – Wow, this is quite the intriguing matchup here. If Wacha channels his efforts from the 2013 NLDS, this will be a pitchers duel. However, with Wacha’s recent struggles (especially against the Cubs) it will be interesting to see how he does here. Wacha, only has one good start against the Cubs, in four starts this year (June 27 6 IP 1 ER, 5K, 2 BB @ Home). Everything points to the Cubs winning this game with Arrieta on the mound, but if Cardinals do their “devil magic” as people affectionally call it, things could potentially go different. 

CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Lance Lynn (31) throws to the San Francisco Giants in the first inning of their MLB baseball game at AT&T Park. Mandatory Credit: Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports

Starter #4

Cardinals: Lance Lynn, has to prove to us that he can beat this team. I’ve talked about his struggles against this team and their left handed hitters before. So, I won’t bore you to death with the numbers. Lynn’s overall ERA is impressive, but it’s misleading as he has struggled with the walk and his command of the strike zone at times throughout this season.

Cubs: Jason Hammel – Hammel on the other hand, is a bit of a journeyman 3-4 starter. In just his second season as a Cub, Hammel posted respectable numbers with a 10-7 record to go along with his 3.74 ERA. However, like Lance Lynn, Hammel struggled mightily in the second half, posting a 5.10 ERA and giving up 12 homers. Unlike Lynn, Hammel’s struggles potentially point to hitters figuring him out as opposed to Lynn’s being command related. 

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Advantage: Cardinals – what we know here is that Jason Hammel is Jason Hammel (a 10th round pick in 2002) he’s a journeyman 4th-5th starter at best. Lynn on the other hand, when he is right can be downright dominant. This is the perfect spot for Lynn, this could be a potential clincher for the Cardinals or it could be the game that saves them from elimination and takes the series back to St. Louis. Whichever spot the team is in, I am comfortable with Lance here, despite his struggles against the Cubs this season.

Apr 5, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher

(44) delivers a pitch during the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Bullpen

I am not going to delve into every single pitcher here, as that would be too time consuming.

Cardinals: Trevor Rosenthal (2.10 ERA 48 saves) , Kevin Siegrist (2.17 ERA), Adam Wainwright, Seth Maness (4.26 ERA and 3.31 Skill Interactive ERA). That’s a ridiculously good tandem there. The Cardinals’ bullpen had the second best ERA in the NL at 2.82, second only to the Pirates at 2.67.

Cubs: Hector Rondon (1.67 ERA), Pedro Strop (2.91 ERA), Fernando Rodney (0.75 ERA w/Cubs, 5.54 w/SEA) is a pretty good tandem as well. However, their only guys with playoff experience in the pen are Rodney and Strop (11.05 vs. Cardinals)

Advantage: Cardinals. They have the experience and the more talented pitchers. Despite Rodney’s numbers with Chicago, they should come back down to earth and the Cardinals have gotten to him in the postseason before (see: 2006 World Series). Lack of experience and the experienced postseason hitters like Matt Carpenter and Matt Holliday should worry Cubs’ fans about their ‘pen and give ease to Cardinals’ fans about theirs.

There you have it. The preview for the 2015 Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals NLDS. This should be a fun series to watch. If you’re looking for a prediction here, I don’t do predictions in the postseason. It’s too random and I’d rather just watch the games than worry about making a prediction.

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