MLB Playoffs: Cardinals’ postseason X-Factors

Good afternoon, Cardinals’ fans! The best time of the year is upon us. That’s right it’s postseason baseball time!

In just a few short days, the wild card teams will be facing off against each other to see who will advance to play against the Cardinals and Royals in the NL and AL respectively. Both wild card games figure to be good games in which either team could come out victorious and it wouldn’t be that unexpected.

However, enough about those games. Let’s get to the real issues for us Cardinals’ fans. A little over a week ago, FanSided’s own Nathaniel Reeves wrote on the X-Factors for each postseason team. I have decided to take this idea and apply it as a whole to this team.

Who will be the X-Factors for this team moving into the postseason? I will give you five players who I believe are critical to this team’s performance.

Sep 27, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman

(13) is congratulated by teammates after hitting a solo home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports

Matt Carpenter

Wow, what a season for Carpenter. If you would have told me he was going to finish the season two home runs shy of 30, I probably would have told you that you were dreaming and that he’d be lucky if he got 20. Kudos to Matt Holliday for working with Carpenter (according to Derrick Goold) and getting him to elevate his swing a bit to get more loft on the ball as despite a dismal month and a half in May/June Carpenter finished the year with a slash of .272/.365/.505 and an OPS of .871-Carpenter also finished with 75 extra base-hits (28 home runs, 44 doubles, 3 triples) while driving in 84 runs. 

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Talk about a career year. Carpenter really established himself as the anchor for this offense in the second half as JHonny Peralta started to fade. Carpenter also has a knack for being a good postseason hitter as he owns a .244/.303/.454 slash line with five homers and eight doubles, four of those homers coming last season. Carpenter’s low average is a result of one bad series against Pittsburgh in 2013. Like Heyward, should Carpenter be his normal self in the postseason it will be a good omen for the Cardinals’ postseason chances.

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Lance Lynn

A couple weeks ago, I spoke on Lance Lynn’s struggles and his chances to make the postseason rotation. Well unfortunately, Carlos Martinez went down with the shoulder injury and the postseason rotation was immediately set in stone. Fortunately, Lynn has picked up his performance in his last three starts allowing just one run and only walking four in 16 total innings pitched. More importantly for Lynn and the Cardinals, his pitch value on each pitch (via Fangraphs) has been up in at least two of the last three starts with yesterday’s stats not up yet.

Save for a couple rough starts in 2012/2013 Lynn has been pretty effective in the postseason. Last season, in two starts Lynn went 11.2 innings and allowed just four runs and striking out 11. The Cardinals’ don’t have your typical “ace” this year, instead they have four pretty good starters-despite the recent struggles of Michael Wacha. If Lynn can anchor this staff as a “de-facto” ace with good pitching, then it will bode well for the rest of the rotation and for the team as a whole in the postseason.

Sep 22, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher

(46) pitches to a Cincinnati Reds batter during the eighth inning at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Reds 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Kevin Siegrist

Appearing in exactly half of the games this season for the Cardinals, this year was a career year for Kevin. He finished the season with 90 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.17, and a FIP of 2.91 (ERA independent of fielding)-which is not too much higher than his overall ERA which means Siegrist doesn’t rely on defense for his low ERA. Siegrist, really came into his own this season, he was a solid option in the eighth inning role once Jordan Walden went down early in the season. 

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Siegrist also filled in nicely for closer Trevor Rosenthal a few times this season notching six saves. The reason why I include Siegrist here, is that he is that guy this team needs to come in and get outs late in the ball game. Siegrist can be the guy that comes in the 7th inning and saves a starter or middle reliever from a jam with his keen ability to notch a strikeout. Siegrist can make the back half of the Cardinals’ bullpen absolutely lethal and an advantage the Cardinals’ can lean on in the postseason.

Sep 30, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals pitcher

(50) pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the eighth inning at PNC Park. The Pirates won 8-2. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Wainwright

No way, the ace of the staff is back and is ready to be a lethal weapon in the bullpen? This is my thought process right now on “Waino”. Wainwright in three appearances has pitched three innings and given up just two hits, one walk, and one run-with the one run and two hits coming in his first outing. Wainwright has looked good and it appears that the Cardinals now have a new weapon out of the bullpen. Wainwright has been the ace of this staff since the injury to Chris Carpenter in 2012 and has proven that his five month comeback from a ruptured achilles tendon is not just a nice gesture from the team.

One of the things that has been nice to see from Adam, is the improved velocity. According to Fangraphs, Wainwright has been sitting in the 93-95 MPH range with his fastball, 75-77 MPH with his curveball, 87-90 MPH with his cutter, and 91-94 MPH with his sinker. These are great numbers and it shows that Wainwright is ramping it up from his normal range, which in turn makes a stud starting pitcher into a very valuable weapon out of the bullpen, especially given that Wainwright could potentially toss two maybe three innings out of the pen if needed in the postseason. Like I stated with Siegrist, this makes any part of the ‘pen very lethal.

With Rosenthal, Siegrist, Seth Maness, and Wanwright all looking good, the Cardinals should have a dominant bullpen heading into the playoffs.

Review

There were a number of players that I could have gone with these five spots, in fact I didn’t even mention the X-Factor that Nathaniel Reeves mentioned in his post, Stephen Piscotty. Piscotty could have a big impact for this team during the postseason, I just view these players above him right now.

Look for these five players to be how the Cardinals live and die throughout the postseason. If these five players are successful, this could be a fun postseason for Cardinals’ fans.